China Reports 16.9% Youth Unemployment Rate for February—How Accurate Is It?

Chinese netizens have dubbed the crowded scene at a spring job fair in Hangzhou "Niú Mǎ Yǒng" (literally "Cattle and Horse Terracotta Warriors") and juxtaposed it with images of Xi’an’s famous Terracotta Army. This meme quickly went viral, resonating with many online. (Screenshot from video)

[Peopel News] China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released unemployment data by age group, reporting that youth unemployment reached 16.9% in February, marking two consecutive months of increase. A Hong Kong scholar estimates that the actual employment rate of Chinese university graduates could be as low as 30% on average. Meanwhile, short-video platform Douyin has seen a surge in content promoting “returning to the countryside to start a business,” which some believe is an attempt to mask urban unemployment issues.

According to Radio Free Asia (RFA), the NBS announced on March 20 that the national urban unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds (excluding students) stood at 16.9% in February, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January, marking two consecutive months of growth. The unemployment rate for 25- to 29-year-olds (excluding students) also rose to 7.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from January, reaching its highest level in 15 months.

Wu Jianzhong, Secretary-General of the Taiwan Strategy Advancement Association, questioned the reliability of the official data in an RFA interview: “Of course, these figures don’t reflect the real situation. The actual rate is definitely much higher. Many dropouts, students who left school without graduating, or those omitted from statistics aren’t counted. The government is cherry-picking a dataset that is most favorable to them.” He also pointed out a key flaw in the methodology: "They exclude students, but how many students are actually in school? And how many are not? The public has no way of knowing."

Fang Congyan, an assistant researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, also told RFA that the exclusion of students from unemployment statistics distorts the reality: “Many graduating seniors delay graduation—either voluntarily or because they fear joblessness. Since they’re still technically students, they aren’t counted as unemployed.”

Fang further noted that China’s employment definition is extremely lenient, making the statistics unreliable. “For example, if someone worked just one hour in a given week, they are considered ‘employed.’ That’s incredibly loose! What about ‘gig workers’ or delivery riders? Are their unstable jobs counted? Also, the unemployed are only counted if they have actively looked for work within the past three months. But what about the so-called ‘full-time children’ who rely on parental support or the so-called ‘youth nursing homes’ where young people give up job hunting? Maybe they last looked for work four months ago—they won't be counted as unemployed. The numbers are definitely underestimated.”

The record-high 3.41 million people applied for civil service exams this year, which Fang sees as further proof that private-sector jobs are scarce. Additionally, the 2024 Overseas Returnees Employment Survey Report found that the number of fresh graduates returning to China for job hunting has increased by 19% year-over-year, doubling since 2018. This sharp rise in competition from overseas returnees means domestic graduates now face even greater pressure to secure jobs.

Hong Kong Scholar: Real Employment Rate for College Graduates Could Be Below 30%

Ding Xueliang, an emeritus professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, recently wrote in Hong Kong Economic Journal that nearly 30 million university graduates in China are unemployed, and the actual employment rate is far lower than the officially reported 56%—potentially below 30% on average. Ding shared insights from university faculty members, who reported that some of the worst-performing universities had employment rates as low as 20%. Furthermore, career counselors are pressuring students to misreport their employment status by listing themselves as “freelancers” or “self-media workers” to boost school employment figures. Chinese universities have also been loosening employment classification standards: Some schools count job application "intent forms" as actual employment offers. Graduates preparing for postgraduate exams or planning to study abroad are not classified as unemployed. These tactics artificially inflate employment rates.

Wu Jianzhong believes the core issue is no longer whether China is manipulating unemployment data, but rather: “Do the Chinese people even trust their government anymore?” He also pointed out that China’s postgraduate and PhD admissions process underwent major changes this year, with oral exams nationwide scheduled on the same day. This may be a signal from the government that: "Pursuing higher education may no longer guarantee better job prospects or salary increases, so applicants shouldn’t waste money applying to multiple schools—just pick one."

Meanwhile, the NBS reported on March 17 that China’s urban unemployment rate in February reached 5.4%, the highest in two years, up 0.2 percentage points from January. The average unemployment rate for January-February was 5.3%, while the jobless rate in 31 major cities hit 5.2%, the highest in six months.

Li Qiang Has Set the Unemployment Rate for This Year at 5.5%

In an interview with Radio Free Asia, Chen Lifu, a member of a Taiwanese think tank advisory committee, stated that the official figures are likely to be conservatively low, emphasizing that the focus should be on trends. The trend is reaching new highs, indicating that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) acknowledges the worsening unemployment situation. He remarked, "It has only been two months, yet Premier Li Qiang predicted at the beginning of March during the Two Sessions that this year's unemployment rate would only be 5.5%. Who would dare to publish data exceeding 5.5%? This reflects the nature of the Chinese Communist Party."

Chen Lifu further analyzed that both Taiwanese and foreign investments are withdrawing from China, yet there has not been a peak in unemployment. This suggests that the reported unemployment rate may be fabricated and does not accurately reflect the employment contraction resulting from the outflow of foreign capital in recent years. Many universities have reported that their students are facing poor job prospects, with the vast majority unable to find work for over six months. For instance, at a university in Beijing, only nine out of one hundred graduates managed to secure jobs, leading to an employment rate of less than ten percent. Moreover, the vacancy rate is alarmingly high. A Chinese real estate research firm noted last August that the housing vacancy rate increases with city tier: an average of 7% in first-tier cities, 12% in second-tier cities, and 16% in third-tier cities. There are even reports of developers selling properties to be converted into Buddhist halls or columbariums. The high vacancy rate also indicates that cities do not require as many employed individuals, contributing to a continuous economic decline.

In the first two months of this year, real estate investment has decreased by 9.8% compared to the previous year.

According to official data from the CCP, the urban survey unemployment rate for non-students aged 16 to 24 is projected to be 15.7% in December 2024.

At this year's Two Sessions press conference, Chinese Communist officials highlighted that 12.22 million university graduates will enter the job market in China this year. This record number is expected to face considerable job-seeking challenges.

A Scholar From Peking University Previously Noted That the Youth Unemployment Rate Exceeds 40% After the Government Concealed the Figures

Zhang Dandan, an associate professor of economics at Peking University, published a study in 2023 indicating that the actual youth unemployment rate in China could reach as high as 46.5%, significantly surpassing the official figure of 21.3% released in 2023.

Chen Lifu pointed out that during Trump's first term, the China-U.S. trade war had already begun, and at that time, the Communist Party announced that the unemployment rate for recent graduates had reached 20%. After Biden took office, foreign investment continued to flee, leading to a 'cover-up' incident where the Communist Party stopped releasing the youth unemployment rate altogether. In cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the rate once fell to 20-30%, and during those years, external estimates suggested that the unemployment rate for university graduates reached 40%. Now, with Trump back in office imposing an additional 10% tariff on China, the unemployment rate is expected to rise again, with some estimates predicting it could exceed 50%.

Chen Lifu remarked, 'It is possible that China's unemployment rate could reach 70% this year, which is why the Chinese Communist Party quickly implemented a policy at the beginning of this year to stop issuing unemployment certificates and instead switch to entrepreneurship certificates, essentially to proactively address the potentially more severe economic impact this year.'

Recently, Douyin has featured numerous short videos supporting the 'return to hometown entrepreneurship' policy. For instance: 'Do you also believe you have to wait until you're wealthy and retired to enjoy a pastoral life? My husband and I have been together for five years; I graduated from Peking University, and he returned from studying abroad. Because we love the rural scenery, we have been engaged in agricultural entrepreneurship for ten years and are still working hard.'

What is it like to give up a job with an annual salary of 20,000 and return to the village to farm after the year 2000? At 7:30 AM, I came with my mom to harvest big-headed cabbages!

Not everyone who stays in big cities is ambitious, and returning home doesn’t mean one has failed outside. This is my hometown; unlike the bright lights of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, this small village is so dark by 10 PM that you can't see your hand in front of your face. Transportation is inconvenient, so the young people who leave here rarely come back. But I returned to start a business. In contrast to the excitement of starting a business in big cities, entrepreneurship back home feels like relying on fate. As for my earnings, I currently make about 3,100 a month.

I have returned to the countryside, and I’m not afraid of being laughed at. I’ve come back to my own home; I haven’t taken anything from you, so let others say what they will.

I am a post-90s girl who has returned to my hometown to start a business. Many people wonder why, after graduating from university, I don’t seek a respectable job in the city but instead choose to endure the hardships of rural life. In your view, what constitutes a respectable job? Is it earning a salary of four or five thousand while living in a rented apartment costing one or two thousand a month? Is it waking up at 7 AM, carrying a bowl of soy milk and two buns, rushing to catch the bus, and sprinting to the office to clock in, fearing that being even a second late could cost me my full attendance for the month, repeating this monotonous routine every day?

Chen Lifu noted that 'returning home to start a business' was referred to as 'going to the countryside for labor reform' in the 1960s. Returning home does not guarantee business opportunities; otherwise, who would willingly leave their hometown to seek work in a big city?

He argues that this initiative can improve the unemployment rate: "It's akin to going to the countryside to find labor jobs, planting some vegetables nearby, and assisting with farming. Starting a business is not counted among the unemployed; the aim is to channel urban job seekers into rural areas. Initially, five people were sufficient to cultivate an acre of land, but if you force ten people to farm it, then everyone has a job."

However, he noted that the local unemployment rate is likely to soar, and local governments may release temporary workers, such as laborers and road workers, to engage in collective labor for a day, which would not be classified as unemployment.

Wu Jianzhong (Wú Jiànzhōng) mentioned that many people on Douyin are returning home to play mahjong; does that count as unemployment? He believes that many of these individuals are part of a "tutoring class" concept, where they record videos to charge tuition, sell creative ideas, and package their rural lifestyle to earn money through Douyin's traffic.