Xi Jinping’s Re-election Unlikely, Li Qiang to Take Over the Mess

File photo: Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang (right) at the closing meeting of the National People's Congress in the Great Hall of the People. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

[People News] Rumors that Xi Jinping will be removed from power this year have been circulating for some time. Among the potential successors mentioned are Ding Xuexiang, Zhao Leji, and Cai Qi. Recently, new reports suggest that Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to take over the mess left behind by Xi.

Jiang Wangzheng, a Chinese commentator living in Australia, stated in his media program that Li Qiang will succeed Xi Jinping as the top leader. Jiang pointed out that among the three senior officials from Minjiang—He Lifeng, Huang Kunming, and Cai Qi—all are relatively old. In contrast, Li Qiang, a key figure in the "Zhijiang New Army" faction, falls within the acceptable age bracket under the party’s “seven up, eight down” rule. Having served as premier, he is well-positioned to take over as General Secretary. Jiang further asserted that Li Qiang is the absolute second-in-command within the party. Li Qiang's assertiveness and ambition are becoming increasingly evident. He is actively building a strong team and forming his own faction to consolidate his position within the party. With support from party elders and top provincial leaders, "Li Qiang is likely to be Xi Jinping's sole successor and the only candidate for General Secretary at the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China." During this year's Two Sessions, many provincial Party secretaries have visited Li Qiang, signaling their efforts to establish ties with the potential next leader of China.

Jiang Wangzheng stated that during this year’s Two Sessions, Cai Qi appeared notably low-key and humble. However, this was unrelated to any health issues or the possibility of him being replaced by Wang Xiaohong. “Cai Qi’s low profile reflects that he no longer wishes to compete.”

Political commentator Zhong Yuan wrote in an overseas Chinese-language media outlet that during the Two Sessions, Xi Jinping, as usual, walked at the very front when entering and exiting, in an attempt to demonstrate his “core” status. However, when Xi walked past, some officials applauded while others did not. Moreover, most attendees’ gazes were directed behind Xi rather than at him. “This deliberate or subconscious disregard for Xi’s presence raises the question of whether they all already know that Xi is no longer the ‘core.’ Such a scene makes the rumors seem even more credible.”

Zhong Yuan further observed that Premier Li Qiang did not exhibit the usual submissive demeanor toward Xi Jinping during the sessions. Instead, their interactions appeared to be on equal footing. Li Qiang also seemed to be in good spirits, whereas Cai Qi maintained a stern expression throughout. While participating in a discussion with the Yunnan delegation, Li Qiang mentioned “Xi Thought” and the “Party Central Committee’s policy decisions.” Meanwhile, Zhao Leji attended the Sichuan delegation’s deliberations and praised Li Qiang’s report as a “good report.” Additionally, Wang Huning, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi all expressed their “full support” for Li Qiang’s “report” and reaffirmed Xi Jinping as the “core” of the Party Central Committee. Until a new “core” is officially revealed, it appears that everyone must continue playing their roles in this political performance.

In reality, no matter who replaces Xi Jinping, it will be impossible to clean up the mess left by the Chinese Communist Party unless they abandon the Party and communist ideology altogether. Particularly after the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic, many Chinese citizens have come to a clear realization: “Only without the Communist Party can there be a new China.”