Caption: On October 13, 2022, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, security personnel were stationed along the road leading to Tiananmen Square. (NOEL CELIS/AFP via Getty Images)
[People News] Since last year, CCP leader Xi Jinping has launched a sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the military, resulting in mass arrests. Many of the generals under investigation were personally promoted by Xi himself, including He Weidong, Zhao Keshi, and Dong Jun, who were recently rumored to have been detained. This has left many observers puzzled.
On March 14, the CCP held a symposium in Beijing marking the 20th anniversary of the Anti-Secession Law. However, He Weidong, a key figure in military operations against Taiwan and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), was notably absent. Zhao Lanjian, a veteran Chinese investigative journalist now based in the U.S., revealed on X (formerly Twitter) that He Weidong was taken away on March 11, shortly after the conclusion of the National People’s Congress. His residences in Beijing and Shanghai were also raided. Analysts believe He’s arrest could be linked to his reluctance to aggressively push for a military invasion of Taiwan, prompting retaliation from Xi Jinping.
On March 16, Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel in the CCP’s Naval Aviation Force, posted on X, stating: "There are clear signs that the military is undergoing a massive purge. The latest rumors suggest that CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong, Defense Minister Dong Jun, and former Logistics Department Minister Zhao Keshi have all been taken down. Reports from the Navy and Rocket Force indicate widespread speculation within high-ranking military circles, creating a sense of impending crisis. It is expected that a large number of officers across different military branches will be purged next. Some rumors claim that He Weidong suffered a sudden heart attack and is now being closely monitored at the 301 Hospital. Dong Jun is also reportedly missing from his home, while Wang Houbin’s family is avoiding all contact, and even close friends cannot reach him by phone."
What is Xi Jinping’s true motive behind this ruthless military purge?
Commentator Cai Shenkun remarked on social media that the responsibility for "anti-secession of the country" traditionally falls under the military's political department. The individual who should have attended and spoken on this matter is He Weidong, who oversees Taiwan Strait affairs and hails from the 31st Army. Instead, it was Zhao Leji, who was officially reported to have contracted a respiratory infectious disease during the closing of the Two Sessions, that took the stage, which is quite unusual.
According to revelations from Zhao Lanjian, He Weidong was taken away immediately after the closing session of the National People's Congress on March 11 while returning to the building, and both his residences in Beijing and Shanghai were subsequently searched. Given that He Weidong previously served as the commander of the Eastern Theater Command and was directly responsible for Taiwan Strait matters, as well as being a key member of Xi Jinping's inner military circle, Xi Jinping's further elevation of officials suggests a significant reshuffling of personnel.
Analysts have also noted that He Weidong, as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, has long been viewed as a crucial military figure concerning Taiwan. His absence from discussions on the "Anti-Secession Law" signals his opposition to military action against Taiwan, which likely explains the current issues surrounding He Weidong.
In a 2023 appearance on New Tang Dynasty's "Elite Forum," Yao Cheng expressed that Xi Jinping's primary challenge today is the internal power struggles within the Communist Party. His position is precarious, and even his personal safety is at risk. Under these circumstances, while Xi Jinping may wish to launch an attack on Taiwan, I believe the military will not comply with his orders. What is Xi Jinping most worried about? Once he delegates military authority to the troops, and they are armed with weapons and ammunition, it will become increasingly difficult for him to maintain control. This is particularly true for frontline commanders; once they gain such power, can we be sure they won't turn their weapons against him or eliminate his supporters? These scenarios are highly probable. Thus, the main issue regarding the CCP's potential attack on Taiwan stems from internal factors: firstly, the ongoing internal conflicts, and secondly, while the military may be willing to fight, it is unlikely to achieve the desired outcomes.
Yao Cheng further disclosed that in 2019, the Central Military Commission assigned a task to the military concerning an operation against Taiwan. Initial discussions took place at the Military Academy of Sciences and the Strategic Research Department of the National Defense University, followed by deliberations at the command academies of the five military branches. After these discussions, a tabletop exercise was conducted in the Eastern Theater Command, akin to what is known in the West as a wargame. Subsequently, a landing and anti-landing exercise was organized for soldiers at Tangshan Port, which bears some resemblance to Tamsui Port in Taiwan, simulating a landing operation on Taiwan. The conclusion reached from these discussions was that an attack on Taiwan is not feasible, resulting in some negative sentiments within the military regarding this issue.
Political observers have noted that He Weidong is unlikely to have no connections with his former colleagues Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang. Even if he has distanced himself from them, the possibility of He Weidong facing investigation or historical reckoning following the incidents involving Miao Hua and some individuals recommended by Miao Hua, who are linked to He Weidong, cannot be dismissed.
Cai Shenkun remarked that if He Weidong is indeed safe, "it cannot be ruled out that in the coming days, the Communist Party may allow him to appear publicly to maintain the facade of unity, but this does not necessarily mean that He Weidong is truly in the clear." He added, "Currently, He Weidong's downfall is just awaiting an official announcement; the timing of this announcement may be forced to coincide with the spread of news about Miao Hua. For someone of his rank, the announcement will not only come from the Ministry of Defense but also from party media and the military."
Current affairs commentator Zhou Xiaohui published an article in The Epoch Times titled "He Lifeng Appears to 'Debunk Rumors': Is He Weidong Okay?" In this article, he pointed out that after foreign media reported on November 27 last year that Dong Jun was under investigation, the following day, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense, Wu Qian, publicly refuted these claims, calling them "purely fabricated." Later, in early December, Dong Jun made a public appearance. In contrast, the Chinese military responded immediately to the "disappearance" of the Minister of Defense, who holds a rank significantly lower than that of the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, while no explanation has been provided regarding the "rumors" surrounding Xi's confidant He Weidong. What does this suggest? Is He Weidong still safe?
Zhou Xiaohui stated, "One possible explanation is that He Weidong's situation is significantly more severe than that of Dong Jun. Reports from social media indicate that He Weidong may be involved in a coup to assist Xi in regaining military authority. If this is true, He Weidong's arrest would indicate a failure in the power grab, and he would not be able to expect 'leniency' for his actions. Another possibility is that Xi has completely lost control over the military. This scenario does not exclude the idea that the military might be intentionally sending such signals to the outside world. Previously, Miao Hua was officially reported to have been dismissed; if both He Weidong, who serves as Xi's key ally in the military, and Miao Hua are under investigation, it could suggest that Xi's position is indeed in jeopardy."
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