Xi’s Inner Circle: Minister of the Central Organization Department Disappears – Will Xu Lin Be Promoted?

File photo: Plainclothes security personnel walk outside the Great Hall of the People during the opening ceremony of the National People's Congress in Beijing, China, on March 5, 2024. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News] According to reports from Chinese state media, on March 17–18, Xi Jinping conducted an inspection tour in Guizhou Province, accompanied by Guizhou Provincial Party Secretary Xu Lin and Governor Li Bingjun. From Beijing, the high-ranking officials accompanying Xi included Politburo Standing Committee member and Director of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee, Cai Qi, as well as Politburo member and Vice Premier, He Lifeng. However, notable by his absence was Politburo member, Secretary of the Central Secretariat, and Minister of the Central Organization Department, Li Ganjie.

Based on Xi’s past domestic inspection tours, in addition to local officials, vice-national-level officials—including Politburo members and Secretaries of the Central Secretariat—typically accompany him.

Looking at similar tours in 2023: April 10–13: Xi visited Guangdong for an inspection. May 11–12: Xi visited Cangzhou and Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province. July 5–7: Xi conducted a tour in Jiangsu. July 25–27: Xi visited Guangyuan and Deyang in Sichuan. September 6–8: Xi inspected Heilongjiang Province. October 10–13: Xi visited Jiujiang, Jingdezhen, and Shangrao in Jiangxi Province. November 28–December 2: Xi conducted an inspection in Shanghai. On all these occasions, the officials accompanying him consistently included Cai Qi, Li Ganjie, and He Lifeng.

From June 7 to 8, during Xi Jinping’s inspection tour in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia, the only senior officials accompanying him were Cai Qi and Li Ganjie. On September 20–21, while Xi was in Zhejiang, he was accompanied not only by his usual three high-ranking officials but also by Wang Xiaohong, Secretary of the Central Secretariat and Minister of Public Security.

On December 13, after Xi returned from his state visit to Vietnam and conducted an inspection in Guangxi (including visits to Nanning and Laibin), the number of accompanying high-ranking officials increased. Besides Cai Qi, Li Ganjie, and He Lifeng, Wang Xiaohong and Wang Yi, State Councilor and Foreign Minister, were also present.

Since 2024, significant shifts in the senior officials accompanying Xi have been noticeable, particularly after the 20th CCP Third Plenum in July.

March 18–21: Xi conducted an inspection in Changsha and Changde, Hunan. April 22–24: Xi inspected Chongqing. May 22–24: Xi visited Rizhao and Jinan, Shandong. In all these visits, his entourage remained the same: Cai Qi, Li Ganjie, and He Lifeng.

However, on June 19–21, during Xi’s tour in Qinghai and Ningxia, Cai Qi was absent, possibly due to health reasons, leaving only Li Ganjie and He Lifeng. After July, amid widespread rumors about Xi’s serious illness, there were no further reports of him conducting local inspections.

On September 12, state media reported that Xi was inspecting Gansu, with Cai Qi and He Lifeng accompanying him. On October 15–18, Xi conducted inspections in Fujian and Anhui. On November 4–5, he inspected Hubei. Notably, for the Hubei visit, only He Lifeng accompanied him, while Cai Qi and Li Ganjie were both absent.

Over the past year, before July 2023, three vice-national-level officials personally promoted by Xi—Cai Qi, Li Ganjie, and He Lifeng—were the main figures accompanying him on local inspections. While Cai Qi or He Lifeng occasionally missed certain trips, Li Ganjie was almost always present.

Li Ganjie, a Tsinghua University alumnus, is considered a protégé of Chen Xi, Xi’s trusted confidant and former Minister of the Central Organization Department. Li, a nuclear reactor engineering specialist, steadily rose through the ranks under Chen’s patronage. His career trajectory advanced further when he served as Deputy Party Secretary, Acting Governor, and later Party Secretary of Shandong Province, the hometown of Xi’s wife, Peng Liyuan. In just two years, he was promoted to CCP Politburo member and head of the Central Organization Department, succeeding Chen Xi.

As the head of the department responsible for evaluating and promoting officials, Li Ganjie’s primary role was to help Xi select loyal and competent cadres. This explains why he was almost always present during Xi’s local inspections—to assess regional leaders, not only in terms of competence but, more importantly, their loyalty to Xi.

However, a dramatic shift occurred after the Third Plenum in July 2023. Since then, Li Ganjie has been entirely absent from Xi’s inspection tours, including the recent Guizhou visit. Another striking change is that recent appointments of vice-ministerial and ministerial-level officials, as well as state-owned enterprise executives, no longer predominantly come from Xi’s faction. In fact, several officials with Xi-affiliated backgrounds have been removed or demoted.

For instance: Wu Yanjun (appointed Vice Minister of Justice on February 27), Zhang Yong (appointed Deputy Director of the National Disease Control and Prevention Bureau), You Jun (appointed Deputy Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee). None of them have Xi faction affiliations.

Zhu Yonglei, who was removed from his position as Deputy Director of the National Radio and Television Administration, and Hu Jingjun, who was dismissed as Deputy Director of China Central Radio and Television and demoted to Propaganda Department Head of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, both hail from Shanghai. Zhu Yonglei has ties to Xu Lin, the current Guizhou Provincial Party Secretary who is accompanying Xi. In May 2013, Xu Lin was appointed as the Head of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee’s Propaganda Department, where he crossed paths with Zhu Yonglei, who was serving as Deputy Head. The two attended numerous events together, including activities that praised Xi.

It can be said that Zhu Yonglei’s promotion to Beijing was due to Xu Lin’s connections, while Hu Jingjun likely relied on Zhu Yonglei for his own advancement. However, with one being dismissed and the other demoted, it indicates that even Xu Lin is unable to protect them.

With Li Ganjie no longer accompanying Xi on local inspection tours and the noticeable shifts in personnel appointments, it raises the question: Has Li Ganjie lost his authority over personnel matters? Is Xi’s faction being systematically replaced? Has personnel power shifted to a “Party Central” led by CCP elders who are undermining Xi’s authority behind the scenes? If Xi’s faction has lost control over personnel appointments, then Xu Lin—who may have hoped for further promotion after gaining experience in local governance—could see his political career stalled.

According to Guizhou local media reports, on March 14, the Guizhou Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Party Building Leadership Group held a meeting. Xu Lin chaired the session, reviewing and approving the province’s implementation plan for studying the "Eight Provisions of the Central Committee." During his speech, Xu Lin emphasized the “Two Establishes” and “Two Safeguards”, pledging absolute loyalty to “Party Central.” He also declared that efforts should be made to align thoughts and actions with the decisions of Party Central. While this seems to signal steadfast loyalty to Xi, it also suggests compliance with the shifting power dynamics within Party Central.

Ultimately, Xu Lin’s future depends on Xi’s actual political standing. With ongoing power struggles in Zhongnanhai, the CCP’s Fourth Plenum may reveal who the real winner is in Beijing.