Rumor: Emergency Plan Drafted for Parade Command—Would Zhang Youxia Replace Xi if Something Happens?

Chinese troops take part in marching drills ahead of an October 1 military parade. (Reuters Images)

[People News] The CCP’s September 3rd military parade is approaching, amid fierce infighting within the top leadership and swirling rumors that Xi Jinping’s grip on power is weakening. Will Xi still preside over the parade? Former PLA Navy Commander Yao Cheng revealed on his independent media channel that the parade command has drawn up an emergency contingency plan. According to his analysis, the plan contains three scenarios, each designating a different substitute leader in case of unforeseen events.

Since early August, the atmosphere in Beijing has been tense and abnormal, with controls even tighter than in past pre-parade periods.

On June 24, when the State Council announced the parade schedule, it stated that Xi Jinping would attend, deliver an important speech, and review the troops.

On August 15, Chinese entrepreneur and independent media figure Hu Liren, based in the U.S., revealed on his channel Real China that on August 14, three top medical experts from Shanghai were urgently summoned to the core ward of Beijing’s 301 Military Hospital to consult on an extremely sensitive patient—allegedly none other than Xi Jinping himself.

This information has not been independently confirmed. If Xi were unable to review the parade due to health problems, how would the CCP respond?

On August 18, Yao Cheng disclosed in his program that, according to a retired military officer from the Central Military Commission (CMC) compound, the parade command has indeed devised an emergency plan.

Yao believes such a plan is necessary, given the significance of the parade to the CCP and the high degree of instability caused by infighting between pro- and anti-Xi factions.

According to his analysis, the plan consists of three possible scenarios:

1. Plan A: Xi Jinping presides over the parade. As Chairman of the CMC and China’s top leader, Xi remains the primary choice, especially with foreign dignitaries present. This option would be carried out unless Xi becomes physically unable to participate.

2. Plan B: If Xi is unable to preside due to health issues, Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the CMC) would step in to review the parade.

3. Plan C: If Xi and Zhang are at odds, a compromise candidate would be chosen—most likely Liu Zhenli, a CMC member and Chief of the Joint Staff Department.

Yao commented that even if relations between Xi and Zhang are strained, they share a common interest in ensuring the parade proceeds smoothly and projects a strong image, as it relates to the CCP’s very legitimacy.“The Party’s core interest is not U.S.-China relations, nor the Taiwan issue. Its core of the core is maintaining the CCP’s regime. Any threat to the regime’s stability will override everything else,” Yao said.

He further explained that the parade is intended both to showcase China’s military strength and to project political stability. Any mishap could endanger CCP rule or even spark divisions within the armed forces.

Earlier, commentator Chen Pokong suggested that the parade rehearsals were not just preparation but also precaution against an internal military mutiny, which he argued is far more dangerous than civilian unrest because insiders control weapons, troops, and resources.

On August 17, Xinhua reported the publication of Xi Jinping’s books On Persisting in Comprehensive Deepening of Reform (Volumes I & II).

Yao interpreted this as Xi attempting to polish his image and send signals of compromise to internal opponents, though he noted Xi does not appear ready to step down.

Meanwhile, independent scholar Wu Zuolai argued in an August 15 article on Taiwan’s Radio Taiwan International (RTI) that after the CCP’s Third Plenum last year, a series of mutinies highlighted the military’s rise as an independent force, bringing retired Party elders back into play. He suggested a current three-way power balance exists in Zhongnanhai between: the elders, Xi’s faction, and the military.

Wu added: “Today’s military power—specifically Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan—no longer align with Xi Jinping. They oppose his authoritarianism and dictatorship. They hope to quietly facilitate a smooth power transition.”