Japanese Author: Two Main Reasons Why Xi Jinping Won’t Have a Fourth Term

There’s a rumour that Xi may step down due to health issues. (People News)

[People News] Chinese affairs expert, writer, and independent media personality Chen Pokong recently interviewed Japanese journalist and author Kaori Fukushima in Tokyo. The topic was the rumours and speculation about changes in the power of Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. As a Japanese expert on Chinese affairs, how much does Fukushima believe in these rumours, and how does she analyse them?

Fukushima said there are many rumors about Xi Jinping, including his health problems, whether he will step down at this year’s Fourth Plenary Session, whether he will hand over power at the 21st Party Congress, as well as power struggles with Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, and even Xi losing control over the military. She stated she currently has no evidence to confirm or disprove these claims.

From 2002 to 2008, Fukushima was the Beijing correspondent for Japan’s Sankei Shimbun and was once expelled from China by the CCP.

She recalled that while she was in Beijing, she noticed something — rumours often contained some truth. During the SARS outbreak in 2003, the authorities blocked information, but many people received unofficial tips. She found that these tips often contained partial truths, whereas 90% of the official information was false.

On the rumour that Xi might step down due to health issues, Fukushima said she partially believes it. However, she is less certain about his stepping down at the Fourth Plenary Session. But she agrees with the view that Xi will retire at the 21st Party Congress, because his policy failures are so serious that he won’t secure a fourth term.

Fukushima judged that a major reason for Xi’s possible departure is serious health problems. From observing his facial expressions and appearance, she believes he shows signs of significant health deterioration, such as rumours of heart disease or having undergone brain surgery.

At the same time, she pointed out that China’s economy is in steep decline, and Xi is powerless to reverse it — another reason contributing to his potential exit.

As for Xi’s successor, Fukushima predicts it will be Ding Xuexiang. She believes Xi does not want someone more capable, such as Hu Chunhua, to take over. If Ding becomes General Secretary, Xi would rule from behind the scenes, retaining control of power.

Fukushima also noted Hu Chunhua. She speculated that since Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong’s fate is uncertain, Hu could be promoted to Politburo member at the Fourth Plenary Session to fill He’s position.

What do Japanese people think of Xi Jinping since he came to power?

Fukushima said that the impression is that China’s leader has become more authoritarian, seemingly returning to Mao-era planned economics. Xi abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening-up path, and compared to past leaders, he dislikes Japan more, worsening China–Japan relations. In fact, many Japanese people would be happy to see him step down.

She added that while Japan still needs China’s market, Japanese companies are now following America’s example and beginning to withdraw from China.

Fukushima also commented on Japanese perceptions of Chinese tourists. Beyond strained bilateral relations and the Diaoyu Islands dispute, behaviours such as littering and loud talking make Japanese people uncomfortable. She noted that some young Chinese livestreamers behave arrogantly, even saying, “Japan will be occupied by China in the future,” which particularly offends Japanese citizens.

Kaori Fukushima graduated from Osaka University and Fudan University. In 2002, she became the China Bureau Chief for the Sankei Shimbun, stationed in Beijing. She returned to Tokyo in September 2008 and resigned from the Sankei Shimbun on November 30, 2009. A prolific author, her works include The Truth About China’s Economy, The Young People in China’s Despair Factories, What Has Happened to the Uyghurs Now?, Why China Cannot Annexe Taiwan, and Xi Jinping’s Cultural Revolution 2.0: The Beginning of a Terror Regime. △