Photo: A job fair in China (Getty Images)
[People News] Recently, the third-party recruitment platform Zhaopin released the '2026 Campus Recruitment White Paper', which offers a comprehensive analysis of the current campus recruitment market based on extensive research data. Some of the findings are alarming, indicating that over 23.3% of graduates from the class of 2026 did not receive a single interview opportunity during the entire autumn and spring recruitment seasons. This highlights the rising job-seeking thresholds and the bleak reality of continuously shrinking employment opportunities for 2026.
According to data from the Ministry of Education, the number of graduates from the class of 2026 is projected to reach between 11.79 million and 12.70 million, setting a new historical record. Even with a conservative estimate of 10% having no interviews, this translates to over a million young people being effectively shut out of the job market. Some individuals have sent out hundreds of resumes, only to receive no replies. Nearly a quarter of companies have explicitly stated their intention to reduce the scale of campus recruitment, with the internet, real estate, and education and training sectors emerging as major areas of concern for employment.
The 'White Paper' also reveals that, in terms of educational structure, the number of graduates at all levels is steadily increasing, with the growth of the graduate population being particularly notable. From 2017 to 2026, the number of master's degree graduates has surged from 520,000 to 1.11 million, marking an impressive increase of 113.5% over the decade. The simultaneous inflation of educational qualifications and contraction of job positions has significantly intensified employment pressure.
The officially reported urban survey unemployment rate remains at a 'stable' level of just over 5%. However, the youth unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 24, excluding students, surged to 18.9% in August 2026, unchanged from the same period last year, reaching a new high since the new criteria were introduced. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for those aged 25 to 29 has risen to 7.5%. This means that one in five young people who are willing to work cannot find a job. It's important to note that this figure only reflects the official statistics; those who have given up on job hunting and exited the labor market, often referred to as 'lying flat', are not included in the labor participation rate. The actual numbers are far more distressing than the official figures.
The trend for the employment implementation rate is equally grim: it is projected to be around 72% for the 2024 cohort, dropping to approximately 68% for the 2025 cohort, and the 2026 cohort is likely to fall below 65% based on data from the first three quarters. The job market is tightening at a visibly rapid pace; data from a certain recruitment platform indicates that undergraduates need to submit an average of 46 resumes to secure just one interview opportunity, while the AI screening pass rate for liberal arts students from non-prestigious universities is only 13.5%. Many resumes sent out do not even reach a real person, as algorithms eliminate candidates directly for companies.
Simultaneously, artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping the job market. Research from Stanford and various reports highlight that AI's impact on entry-level jobs is particularly pronounced, with the employment gap for young individuals aged 22 to 25 in high-exposure professions steadily increasing. Many graduates express their frustration, stating, 'We are precisely the type of individuals that AI aims to replace.' Ms. Zhou from the mainland has submitted over 2,800 job applications in the past year, resulting in fewer than 20 interviews and no job offers so far. She notes that the knowledge acquired in university is nearly irrelevant for adapting to AI, as employers show a preference for candidates with experience. Tasks that once required collaboration among multiple professionals can now be accomplished with just a few clicks, thanks to AI.
Additionally, a structural factor contributing to the high unemployment rate among university graduates is the persistent mismatch between supply and demand, with supply significantly outpacing demand, which further deepens the sense of despair among young people. The number of graduates has risen for eleven consecutive years, with an expected increase of 480,000 in 2026. When combined with the number of previous graduates who remain unemployed and those returning from studying abroad, the total number of individuals entering the job market this year is conservatively estimated to exceed 15 million. However, the number of effective campus recruitment positions available for fresh graduates is only around 5.67 million, meaning that, on average, nearly three candidates are vying for each position. The competition for high-value roles, such as those in major internet companies, central state-owned enterprises, financial institutions, and sought-after civil service positions, has increased two to threefold.
A certain central enterprise has announced 1,730 job openings, attracting nearly 1.2 million applications, which translates to almost 700 candidates competing for each position. The most competitive roles in the national civil service examination have seen applicant-to-position ratios soar to thousands to one. This year marks the first time that the number of applicants for national civil service exams has exceeded that of graduate school admissions, with 25.1% of undergraduate graduates explicitly planning to take civil service exams, and the figure for master's degree holders reaching an even higher 35.6%. Positions in state-owned enterprises and within the public sector have become a sought-after refuge for young people.
While new employment models such as flexible jobs, short video content, and cross-border e-commerce have absorbed some of the workforce, many others remain caught in the squeeze of educational inflation and job scarcity. Graduates from prestigious 985 and 211 universities are now competing for positions that even former vocational school graduates would have previously overlooked. Reports of undergraduates scrambling for sanitation jobs and master's degree holders working as food delivery drivers are no longer isolated incidents, but rather indicative of a broader structural issue.
The white paper highlights that as the industrial structure undergoes rapid upgrades, both supply and demand are experiencing simultaneous structural changes, leading fresh graduates to adopt a job-seeking mentality that prioritizes 'stability and quality.' Approximately 10.3% of the 2026 graduates have opted to delay entering the workforce in search of better opportunities. This 'seeking stability and quality' mindset is largely a response to harsh realities, compelling graduates to face a hard landing. Some graduates humorously remark, 'It's not that we don't want to work, but we don't want to work for nothing.' While graduates expect an average monthly salary of 6,800 yuan, the average job offer from companies is only 5,700 yuan. Furthermore, once they begin working, the actual wage levels can be even more disheartening. For instance, a factory administrative position may offer a monthly salary of 4,500 yuan, or a sales role might start at 3,000 yuan, leaving almost nothing after accounting for rent, food, transportation, and social insurance. This situation is particularly dire in third- and fourth-tier cities; in first-tier cities, such earnings are insufficient for survival, as just the rent and mandatory social insurance contributions would entirely consume the salary.
Recently, an article from the People's Daily sparked widespread outrage by stating: 'Are young people not getting married, are we all just waiting to die?' This was met with a bold retort from netizens within the Great Wall: 'We are waiting for you to die.' This response quickly went viral online, earning the title of the 'strongest voice of the century.' Official media outlets like the People's Daily have consistently stressed the importance of 'establishing a correct employment outlook,' 'being able to endure hardship and willing to strive,' and 'contributing light and heat where the country and the people need it most.' They encourage young people to engage in grassroots work, participate in rural revitalization, and defend the nation. On May 1, 2023, a front-page article in the People's Daily quoted Xi Jinping, stating: 'Countless successful life stories demonstrate that in youth, choosing to endure hardship is also choosing to reap rewards.' In his speech, Xi Jinping set expectations for young people, mentioning 'enduring hardship' five times, and he repeatedly urged the youth to 'seek hardship for themselves,' drawing from his own experiences during the Cultural Revolution when he was sent to the countryside.
The party media and Xi Jinping's rhetoric have faced sharp criticism from netizens, who label it as the highest form of PUA (Pick-Up Artist) targeting young people. The official narrative has always maintained that it is infallibly correct. Industries that once drew in young talent, such as real estate, the internet, and education and training, have been severely damaged by the misguided policies of the Xi Jinping administration and are now in a prolonged downturn. In an effort to compete with the United States, Xi Jinping has once again adopted a Great Leap Forward-style development model in the realms of AI and automation, hastening the replacement of human jobs. His overarching national security perspective and crackdown on espionage have nearly driven away or intimidated all foreign investment in recent years, resulting in long-term deflation, weak domestic demand, and a wave of business closures. Meanwhile, official statistics and propaganda continue to stress 'moving towards new and better' and 'a bright economic future,' completely sidestepping discussions of policy failures and the bureaucratic tendencies of the government. Instead, they have shifted the blame onto unemployed college graduates, accusing them of failing to uphold the dignity of their education, likening them to the character Kong Yiji.
'Wait until you die' — this blunt retort from netizens encapsulates their frustration. Young people are not only discontented with their inability to find jobs but also with their lost hope for the future. From a young age, they have been taught to study diligently, gain admission to prestigious universities, and secure good jobs, believing that education would transform their destinies. However, the harsh reality is grim, with employment challenges compounded by soaring housing prices, high living costs, and a declining birth rate, creating a vicious cycle. One graduate openly shared during a live stream that the exorbitant tuition and living expenses over four years primarily benefited university faculty and businesses profiting from students, leaving them burdened with insurmountable student debt after graduation.
"Wait until you die" is not a personal curse directed at officials, but rather a cry of anger aimed at those who persist in glossing over the issues and expect young people to bear the burdens of a flawed system alone. When millions of graduates struggle to secure even a single interview, when youth unemployment becomes the norm for half of the country's young people, and when the official narrative starkly contradicts reality, the foundation of social stability is on the verge of collapse. This represents one of the most significant challenges facing the Xi Jinping administration.
(First published by People News)△

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