Qincheng Prison (video screenshot)
[People News] In the past few days, have you noticed something unusual about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)? Everyone had been watching Taiwan, but suddenly, in the past couple of days, the U.S. and Japan announced an increase in interceptor production. This clearly suggests they sense a storm coming. But the strangest part is that while tensions are rising externally and internally, there is a sweeping purge. The mayor of Chongqing suddenly disappeared, and a top figure in charge of advanced technology has also vanished from official websites. With preparations for war outside and arrests at home, what exactly is going on?
Amid Middle East conflict, the U.S. and Japan strengthen Taiwan Strait defences
On the 19th, the U.S. government released a document summarising the meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump during her visit to the United States. During their talks, both leaders agreed that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are indispensable for regional security and global prosperity, and jointly opposed any unilateral attempts to change the status quo, including through force or coercion. To enhance deterrence, as part of missile defence cooperation, the U.S. and Japan will quadruple production of the jointly developed upgraded interceptor missile, the SM-3 Block IIA. This missile, used in the Aegis system, can serve both as an anti-ballistic missile and as an anti-satellite weapon capable of targeting objects in low Earth orbit.
Due to the expanding U.S.-led military campaign against Iran, some U.S. military assets originally deployed in the Taiwan Strait have been redirected to the Middle East. These include the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, previously stationed at bases in southwestern Japan, along with over 2,000 Marines, who are heading toward waters near Iran. According to U.S. officials cited by the Associated Press, personnel from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit have also been ordered to deploy to the Middle East.
As the “Trump–Takaichi meeting” took place, concerns grew in Japan that if the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran drags on, Washington’s strategic focus and military resources may shift from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, potentially creating an opportunity for the CCP.
Earlier this month, there was a mysterious two-week “gap” in PLA aircraft and naval harassment activities around Taiwan. However, on the 15th, PLA aircraft suddenly resumed large-scale operations around the island.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence confirmed that within a single day, 26 PLA aircraft sorties were detected near the Taiwan Strait, accompanied by increasingly sharp rhetoric, signalling the return of large-scale military activity. Defence Minister Wellington Koo warned that the threat had never truly receded. Even during the two-week “absence” of aircraft, PLA naval vessels continued routine patrols around Taiwan.
Facing the partial redeployment of U.S. forces and escalating pressure from the CCP, Takaichi reminded Trump during her visit that the Indo-Pacific security situation remains severe.
A writer known as “Drifting Island Today” noted in a Facebook post on the 14th that PLA patrol flights are also aimed at signalling to the U.S., especially as American forces shift toward the Middle East, potentially reducing their presence in the South China Sea, prompting increased Chinese reconnaissance.
According to a White House fact sheet, both leaders pledged to “maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.” This was Takaichi’s first U.S. visit since taking office last October, aimed at reaffirming U.S. commitment to Indo-Pacific security amid rising CCP influence.
Trump stated: “Under the leadership of the Prime Minister and myself, we can make our partnership stronger than ever before.”
Takaichi said: “I believe we are the ‘strongest partners’ in achieving these goals.”
If the CCP won’t attack Taiwan in 2027, why are the U.S. and Japan strengthening defences?
So why are Takaichi and Trump strengthening Taiwan Strait defences? Especially when a recent U.S. intelligence annual threat assessment clearly stated that Chinese leaders currently have no plan to invade Taiwan by 2027 and have not set a timetable for unification. Are the two leaders simply preparing for the worst, or is the intelligence assessment inaccurate?
In reality, even if the CCP publicly declares it will not attack Taiwan by 2027, the U.S. and Japan must remain vigilant—especially with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East diverting U.S. military resources. If the Russia-Ukraine war escalates again, North Korea stirs trouble, or Latin America demands attention, China could seize the moment. A sudden preemptive move by the CCP cannot be ruled out. The U.S. report also notes that China continues to develop military capabilities to be ready to achieve unification by force if ordered.
The Pentagon has previously viewed 2027 as a potential window for a Chinese attack. Multiple U.S. officials have urged vigilance regarding this timeframe.
Media reports note that Admiral Philip Davidson, before stepping down as head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned Congress that China might attack Taiwan before 2027. His warning became widely known as the “Davidson Window.”
However, current intelligence assessments are more nuanced. A 30-page report predicts that in 2026, Beijing will likely continue creating conditions for eventual unification while avoiding direct conflict. China has publicly stated its goal of achieving unification by 2049.
On March 19, at a regular press conference of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a Reuters reporter asked about the U.S. intelligence assessment report, requesting comment on the claim that China (the CCP) may seek to control Taiwan without using force by 2027. Spokesperson Lin Jian responded with standard talking points, saying that the U.S. should act and speak cautiously on the Taiwan issue and should abandon ideological bias and Cold War zero-sum thinking, offering nothing new.
Reuters reporters followed up by asking: regarding Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about a hypothetical Chinese (CCP) “attack on Taiwan,” the Japanese government stated that its position on determining a “survival-threatening situation” remains unchanged. What is China’s comment on this?
Lin Jian responded firmly, urging Japan to reflect on its actions and saying that Japan should “not continue further down the wrong path,” and so on.
On March 20, in response to a Kyodo News question about U.S.-Japan reaffirmation of Taiwan Strait stability, Lin repeated standard lines about safeguarding sovereignty, without elaboration.
In other words, amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and shifting U.S. military focus, the CCP has yet to clearly articulate its Taiwan strategy and appears to be assessing the situation.
Former Japanese Defence Minister Satoshi Morimoto recently told Liberty Times that opposition within the CCP to attacking Taiwan has weakened after Zhang Youxia’s fall, potentially clearing obstacles for Xi Jinping. Taiwan’s January 2028 presidential election may become a key observation point.
While U.S. intelligence suggests no 2027 invasion, if Middle East conflicts end quickly, the likelihood remains low—but not zero. Changing circumstances or domestic pressures could prompt Beijing to act around Taiwan’s 2028 election.
Internal CCP turmoil is one obstacle to a military attack on Taiwan
Analysts believe that the CCP currently has no plans to attack Taiwan, which is also related to serious infighting within both the Party and the military, with internal chaos yet to be resolved.
On the military side, after four major figures in China’s defense industry were quietly removed from online records, it was discovered on March 18 that Liu Guozhi, former director of the Central Military Commission’s Science and Technology Commission and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, had also had his personal information removed from the Academy’s official website, with his profile page no longer accessible.
Liu Guozhi is an expert in high-power microwave technology. He previously served as commander of China’s nuclear test base and as a researcher, and was elected an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2009. He also served as a deputy head of the PLA General Armaments Department and was a member of the 19th Central Committee.
According to a March 14, 2016, report by The Dajiyuan, when CCP leader Xi Jinping attended the full meeting of the military delegation during that year’s National People’s Congress, then–Science and Technology Commission director Lieutenant General Liu Guozhi was the first to speak. Afterwards, state media Xinhua released a photo specifically showing Xi shaking hands with Liu alone, which was widely interpreted as a sign that Liu was highly valued by Xi.
On the Party and government side, on March 20, Chongqing Mayor Hu Henghua—whose troubles had been circulating online days earlier—was officially announced to have been removed from office. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection stated that he is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law and is currently under investigation. He is the fourth ministerial-level official to fall this year.
Hu Henghua is a member of the CCP’s 20th Central Committee. He spent much of his career in Hunan, including serving as Party Secretary of Changsha. In 2020, he became Deputy Party Secretary of Shaanxi Province, and since December 2021, he has served as Deputy Party Secretary and Mayor of Chongqing.
Since the beginning of this year, three other ministerial-level officials have also fallen: Sun Shaocheng, Wang Xiangxi, and Yi Lianhong. Hu had long-standing ties with Yi Lianhong, the former Hunan Party Secretary who fell a month earlier; the two worked together in Changsha for nearly three years. His case may involve a broader corruption network in Hunan. His son, along with Yi Lianhong’s son Yi Shiwei, was known for their flamboyance and was among the so-called “Seven Young Masters” in Hunan’s political circles, allegedly interfering in major projects and personnel decisions.
In less than three months since the start of 2026, around 30 officials in Chongqing have been investigated. These include Mu Jun, deputy general manager of Chongqing Expressway Group; Deng Zhaojun, former deputy director of the Nan’an District People’s Congress Standing Committee; Li Weidong, Party Secretary of Wuxi County; and Tang Junyi, deputy district head of Liangping.
Since the Bo Xilai scandal erupted in 2012, Chongqing’s political scene has become a high-risk zone, with many senior officials seeing their careers end—some receiving heavy prison sentences, others dying under mysterious circumstances—earning the city the nickname “a graveyard for officials.”
For example, former Chongqing Party Secretaries Bo Xilai and Sun Zhengcai both fell from power while in office. Public security chiefs Wang Lijun, He Ting, and Deng Huilin were all investigated in succession. Former Deputy Party Secretary Ren Xuefeng died after jumping from a building while in office, and former Deputy Party Secretary Wu Cunrong later fell while serving in Shanxi.
Recently, insiders from within the system told The Dajiyuan that in some regions of China, the number of detained officials involved in corruption and bribery has increased significantly in prisons and detention centres, including retired bureau-level officials and executives of state-owned enterprises. In places such as Zibo and Zaozhuang in Shandong Province, and Yuncheng in Shanxi Province, a sweeping “purge of the officialdom” is reportedly underway.
Since late December last year, the CCP has launched a retrospective investigation campaign. Prisons are now more crowded with Party members than ever before. Looking around, one sees former well-dressed officials now imprisoned for corruption—some involving tens of millions of yuan, others millions in illicit gains. The proportion of “Party prisoners” now exceeds that of ordinary criminal inmates.
Sources also said that many local judicial authorities have made anti-corruption their primary task, conducting investigations and arrests everywhere. “Prisons have become ‘Party prisons,’ filled almost entirely with Party officials.” The numbers of arrests, prosecutions, and sentences have all risen by double digits. Cells originally designed for a dozen inmates now often hold more than twenty, with some cases of dozens crammed together, forced to sleep side by side. Some areas have even made temporary adjustments to detention arrangements to cope with the surge.
Why are so many officials falling? A scholar identified as Geng Yan (pseudonym) said in an interview: “One reason is that the top leadership believes there are problems with the political loyalty of some officials and needs to re-screen and purge them. Another is that there is a severe fiscal shortfall, and the authorities believe a large amount of resources is held by officials, so they are confiscating assets through anti-corruption measures.”
With chaos in both the military and civilian leadership, coupled with an economy on the brink and a public increasingly restless, it would be overreaching for the CCP to launch a war. It could even lead to internal collapse before any external conflict begins. This may be one reason why the CCP is constrained from taking military action lightly in 2027.
All the chaos and breakdown of power in the CCP originates from the Jiang Zemin era
To this day, the CCP has not disclosed the outcomes of many of the officials who have fallen or encountered trouble; many remain effectively “missing.” Whether their alleged crimes involve political disloyalty, economic corruption, or even espionage is treated as a state secret and not made public—an unusual practice rarely seen historically or internationally.
Since Jiang Zemin’s tenure as General Secretary, when corruption was used as a means of governing both the Party and the military, opportunists and mediocre individuals who relied on flattery and sycophancy to enter officialdom began to scramble for power. As a result, many of those now in positions of authority lack moral integrity, education, and ability. Having spent large sums to advance through favouritism, they seek to recoup their “investment” with interest once in power. This leads to increased worship of authority, greater flattery toward superiors, and harsher treatment of subordinates. With distorted personalities and warped mindsets, they act recklessly. How could a bureaucracy dominated by such officials not descend into chaos?
In investigating the past crimes of these officials, we found a common wrongdoing that the CCP does not dare to disclose: the violent persecution of ordinary Chinese citizens, especially when these officials controlled local security apparatuses, where they carried out large-scale arrests of unarmed Falun Gong practitioners. In other words, these individuals brutally oppressed local, law-abiding people, acting with cruelty and disregard for the law.
The root cause of the CCP’s current, uncontrollable disorder lies in Jiang Zemin’s initiation of the persecution of Falun Gong, which broke moral boundaries, social rules, ethical norms, and cultural constraints. It can be said that unless this persecution ends, the chaos in China will only deepen, ultimately leading to the collapse of the CCP.
In fact, there is no Chinese law that prohibits the practice of Falun Gong. Negative portrayals of Falun Gong have come mainly from the CCP’s “610 Office” and state-controlled media. At the time, many senior CCP leaders opposed Jiang Zemin’s politically motivated campaign, including top figures such as Qiao Shi, Li Ruihuan, and Wen Jiabao.
As for those local officials who rose through flattery, in order to demonstrate loyalty to the Party and showcase their ideological zeal, they carried out wrongdoing to extreme levels to curry favor with their superiors—bullying the weak while fearing the strong, and rising to power on the suffering of ordinary people. Could such individuals have a good outcome? Would they not simply throw governance into disorder? It can be said that this group is what has ultimately undermined the CCP regime.
Today, the CCP faces an endless stream of corrupt military and civilian officials being purged, to the point that even plans to attack Taiwan are hindered. It can be said that all of this is the bitter fruit sown during the Jiang Zemin era. And this is not all—if the CCP collapses, further reckonings for corrupt officials and their wrongdoing will follow, with many more consequences yet to come.
(First published by People News)
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