Rumors of Cai Qi’s Health Issues and Replacement as Chief of the General Office – CCP Faces Mounting Crises

File photo: On October 23, 2022, Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi attends a press conference at the Great Hall of the People with other newly appointed Standing Committee members and both domestic and international journalists. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

People News - According to independent commentator Cai Shenkun, who cited sources from Beijing in his self-media program on March 1, Xi Jinping is currently searching for a new Chief of the General Office of the Central Committee, intending to replace Cai Qi. The reason is that Cai Qi has been suffering from serious health issues and has fallen ill multiple times since the second half of last year. As a result, he has been unable to accompany Xi Jinping on inspection tours.

Cai Qi ranks fifth among the Politburo Standing Committee members and is a trusted confidant of Xi Jinping. He worked with Xi for an extended period in Fujian and Zhejiang and has gained Xi’s trust. After the 20th Party Congress, Cai Qi was appointed as the director of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee, effectively becoming the "chief steward" of Zhongnanhai. His responsibilities include national security, ideology, propaganda, Xi Jinping’s security detail, and monitoring other high-ranking officials. He also reviews propaganda materials, issues directives, and accompanies Xi Jinping at various domestic and international events.

Recently, Chinese state media has significantly reduced its coverage of Cai Qi. According to the "Cai Qi Activity Report Page" on Chinese Communist Party news websites, there were only seven reported domestic activities involving Cai Qi over the past month: on January 27, January 28, February 6, February 8, February 9, February 21, and February 28. There was a 12-day gap between February 9 and February 21. On February 28, he was reported to have met with a delegation from the Lao People's Revolutionary Party. Meanwhile, in the "Foreign Visits" section, his last recorded activity was on November 22 of last year, when he attended a meeting between Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Lula alongside Wang Yi.

What is the true state of Cai Qi’s health? Did he indeed fall ill multiple times since the second half of last year? What kind of illness? How severe was it? These details are classified as state secrets, and the CCP will not disclose them.

However, is it possible that Cai Qi is indeed sick? Absolutely. At 70 years old, prolonged late-night work and high-pressure responsibilities could take a toll on his health. Of course, senior officials in Zhongnanhai have access to unlimited medical care funds, the best healthcare technology, and top-tier medical personnel. They undergo routine and ad-hoc medical check-ups and health maintenance. Therefore, even for someone at 70, falling ill is unusual, and if he were to pass away, it would be an extraordinary news event.

In 2023, overseas Twitter reported leaks from within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) indicating that no more than a thousand central and provincial high-ranking officials incurred medical insurance expenses totaling 16.48 billion yuan in 2022. According to Hong Kong's 'Trend' magazine, historical data from 2004 revealed that retired high-ranking officials at the national level in the CCP had an average annual public expenditure of 27.25 million yuan per person, primarily for medical care. Radio Free Asia reported in 2021 that officials at the deputy ministerial level and above could spend years residing in specialized hospitals or high-ranking officials' wards, utilizing the world's most advanced and expensive medications, often racking up daily expenses of several thousand to tens of thousands of yuan. In 2013, a retired provincial official's hospitalization cost as much as 3 million yuan. The expenses for party and state leaders can be imagined.

The 301 Hospital once promoted its ambition to extend the lifespan of CCP leaders to 150 years. High-ranking officials in Zhongnanhai are expected to have long lifespans: Deng Xiaoping lived to 93, Wan Li to 99, Wang Dongxing to 100, Deng Liqun to 100, and Jiang Zemin to 96... Therefore, when Cai Qi fell ill and remarked that 'continuing to serve as the director of the Central Office could lead to dying in office,' some expressed skepticism.

Of course, there are also those who died young, such as Li Keqiang, who suffered a myocardial infarction at 68, and Hu Yaobang, who passed away at 73. Furthermore, with various epidemics rampant in the CCP, rumors have circulated that COVID-19 had already infiltrated Zhongnanhai, making it plausible that Cai Qi contracted the virus.

Xi Jinping's public engagements are typically accompanied by Cai Qi. Recently, however, observers have noted that Cai Qi has occasionally not been present, suggesting a higher likelihood of his illness. Cai Shenkun remarked that the role of the Director of the General Office is vital, as it directly serves Xi Jinping and can even influence his life or death. Cai Qi has held this position for just over two years, and as the saying goes, 'to accompany the emperor is like accompanying a tiger'; each day is fraught with anxiety, requiring an understanding of Xi's mindset and how to keep him pleased, making it understandable that he might fall ill.

Overseas Chinese media have reported on Cai Shenkun's comments, indicating that Xi Jinping is currently searching for a new candidate for the Director of the General Office. The frontrunner appears to be Wang Xiaohong, along with other potential candidates such as Ma Xingrui, the Secretary of the Xinjiang Party Committee, Chen Wenqing, the Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, and You Jun, the current Deputy Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee and Minister of the Organization Department. Cai Shenkun believes that Xi Jinping's final choice will largely depend on the type of Director of the General Office he desires. This decision may soon be revealed.

However, at present, Zhongnanhai lacks trusted individuals. Xi Jinping surveys his surroundings and finds very few he can depend on, with loyal officials like Cai Qi, who flatter him, being even scarcer. Some have even expressed a wish for his early death. Since the Third Plenary Session last July, there have been rumors that Xi Jinping himself has suffered a second stroke, and some within the party and government have even celebrated this news. Reports suggest that Xi Jinping has scolded those around him, saying: 'You all would be happy if I were dead, wouldn't you?'

Rumors have circulated that both Xi Jinping and Cai Qi are unwell. It is certainly plausible that the treacherous political infighting within the Communist Party of China (CPC) has contributed to their deteriorating health. Particularly after Xi's faction secured comprehensive power at the 20th CPC National Congress, a complex power struggle has emerged within the party. In the past two years, many of Xi's trusted allies in the party, government, and military have faced significant setbacks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC, which was originally scheduled for last autumn, has yet to take place, underscoring the severity of the internal conflicts. Since the Third Plenary Session last July, there have been ongoing rumors about Xi being reprimanded by party elders and a perceived weakening of his military authority.

Independent commentator Du Zheng recently wrote in a Taiwanese media outlet that in recent years, the CCP has been plagued by chaotic governance and deep economic crises. Additionally, the Trump administration in the United States has continuously launched a series of combined attacks against the CCP, while calls for the downfall of the CCP are growing both domestically and internationally. The fact that the CCP is facing multiple crises is undeniable. Whether Cai Qi has fallen ill and whether he will be replaced as Chief of the General Office remains to be seen. Observing Cai Qi’s public appearances after the CCP’s “Two Sessions” or whether he accompanies Xi Jinping on foreign trips will likely provide some clues.