Image: During the March 2024 Two Sessions, Xi Jinping was photographed by foreign media in the Great Hall of the People with an expression of extreme pain while drinking tea. (Illustration by Qing Yu/People News)
[People News] For several years, rumours have circulated suggesting that Xi Jinping is suffering from a serious illness. While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not officially addressed these claims, the presence of two cups in front of Xi during meetings has led many to believe that his health is significantly compromised, despite the lack of clarification from official sources.
During Xi Jinping's recent visit to the United States last month, he required assistance from his wife, Peng Liyuan, when getting on and off the plane, indicating that he struggles with basic movements like climbing stairs. Furthermore, during his stay at the White House, the Chinese delegation made an unusual request for a 'resting room' for Xi. Typically, one would expect him to engage in more extensive discussions with Trump after travelling such a long distance from China, yet the duration of the Xi-Trump meeting was notably short. These factors have heightened concerns about Xi Jinping's health issues.
Consequently, speculation has begun about how much longer Xi can maintain his position. Some experts have started to openly discuss the potential emergence of a 'post-Xi Jinping era.'
On the 13th, the American news website 'Semafor' published a commentary titled 'The Countdown to Xi Jinping's Endgame Will Become a Global Focus.' The article noted that as the 73-year-old Xi Jinping enters the later stages of his rule, the CCP faces a perilous power transition dilemma. The piece warns that the end of the Xi Jinping era could lead to significant political upheaval, potentially mirroring the historical palace coup initiated by Mao Zedong's former associates following his death.
Australian sinologist Bai Jieming (Geremie R. Barmé) remarked in a commentary: "The fatal fate of dictators is that from the moment they seize absolute power, the countdown to their downfall begins." Reflecting on history, Mao Zedong's health declined in his later years, leading to increasingly erratic decisions that brought China to the brink of civil war; Deng Xiaoping, despite facing political turmoil such as the Tiananmen Square incident in his later years, ultimately passed away peacefully. Now, Xi Jinping has also entered the countdown to the end of his political career.
One aspect that has left observers perplexed is that, despite positive health indicators, Xi Jinping has not yet named a successor.
In dictatorial regimes, the transfer of power is fundamentally a zero-sum game of "you die, I live." In the absence of institutionalised rule of law and power oversight, the victor controls everything, while the loser may face reckoning or even personal annihilation.
Analyses suggest that this harsh zero-sum logic renders power transfer an extremely precarious moment: if a successor is named too early, it can provoke premature betting and infighting among party factions, potentially undermining the current leader; if delayed too long, any sudden changes could create a dangerous power vacuum, prompting various factions to instigate a coup out of fear and self-preservation to seize power.
Considering the current situation of the main power holders in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the current members of the Politburo Standing Committee are generally older, making them less viable as successors; if new individuals are promoted outside the usual norms, it may be difficult to gain acceptance, and they may struggle to secure loyalty from the military and maintain unity within the party.
History indicates that successors within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have consistently occupied high-risk positions. Liu Shaoqi, appointed by Mao Zedong, met a tragic end in captivity, while Deng Xiaoping, prior to selecting Jiang Zemin, had twice removed his successors, Zhao Ziyang and Hu Yaobang. Additionally, Xi Jinping's extensive purges of senior officials and his deep-seated suspicions over the past decade have left potential 'number twos' feeling increasingly vulnerable.
Analysts caution that Xi Jinping considers 'unifying Taiwan' to be his ultimate goal. Should China find itself in a prolonged period of political instability and economic decline, alongside growing public discontent, Xi is likely to take significant risks concerning the Taiwan Strait issue.
The article concludes by stressing that the end of the Xi Jinping era could mirror the events following Mao Zedong's death: just months after Mao's passing, his chosen successor Hua Guofeng and others initiated a silent coup to detain the 'Gang of Four.'
In fact, even before Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, there were major upheavals, including Bo Xilai's downfall and rumours of a coup in Beijing. Now, as Xi reverts to a path of personal authoritarianism, the nation risks entering a zero-sum game, echoing Deng Xiaoping's warning: 'Basing a country's fate on the reputation of one or two individuals is extremely unhealthy and poses significant dangers.'
What is a 'Zero-Sum Game'?
A Zero-Sum Game, also referred to as a 'zero-sum situation', is a fundamental concept in Game Theory within Western political science.
In essence, it signifies that the 'gains of the winners' and the 'losses of the losers' among all participants in the game sum to zero.
In this scenario, one person's success is inherently dependent on another person's failure; the benefits are fixed (i.e., 'the pie is only so big'), meaning there is no possibility for a win-win or lose-lose outcome. The only result is that 'if you take more, I take less'.
Why do power transitions in authoritarian regimes frequently reflect a 'zero-sum game'?
In a healthy democratic system, politics tends to be 'non-zero-sum' or negotiable (losers can form an opposition party, return in the next election, and their personal and property safety is protected by law); however, in a dictatorial regime that lacks the rule of law and checks and balances, power transitions devolve into a standard 'zero-sum game'—losers not only lose power but may also forfeit their property, freedom, or even their lives.
The concept of a 'zero-sum game' closely aligns with the traditional Chinese saying 'the winner is king, the loser is a bandit,' which explains how power is seized and maintained. Nevertheless, traditional Chinese culture also holds the belief that 'those who follow the will of heaven prosper, while those who oppose it perish.' Historical experience indicates that while strong authority and oppression can achieve 'the winner is king' in the short term, consistently defying the will of the people, economic principles, and historical trends will ultimately invoke the historical law that 'those who oppose heaven perish.' This is why, throughout history, all dictators who have sought to establish absolute power of 'one dynasty for all ages' have ultimately been unable to escape the fate of being overwhelmed by the currents of history.
(First published in People News)△
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