Zhang Shengmin Visits the Beijing Garrison Emphasizing “Stability,” Highlighting Political Instability

Chinese troops take part in marching drills ahead of an October 1 military parade to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People&9;s Republic of China at a camp on the outskirts of Beijing

[People News] On the eve of the Lunar New Year, CCP Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin “maintained stability” at the Beijing Garrison, stressing the need for the military to remain “safe and stable.” Analysts say that after Zhang Youxia’s fall from power, the political situation is unstable, and even Zhang Shengmin’s show of loyalty to Xi may not guarantee his own safety.

According to a report by New Tang Dynasty Television, on February 11 Zhang Shengmin “visited and extended greetings” to troops stationed in Beijing. The units he visited included an engineering and technical brigade under the Military Aerospace Force, as well as a guard regiment of the Beijing Garrison.

In his speech, Zhang Shengmin emphasized so-called “Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Military,” “implementing the Chairman of the CMC responsibility system,” and “firmly listening to the Party and following the Party,” among other slogans. He also called for “strengthening military training and war preparedness,” “preparing to respond to various sudden situations,” and “maintaining a high degree of unity, centralization, and safety and stability in the troops.”

The Beijing Garrison is a regular army-level unit of the CCP’s PLA, directly commanded by the Central Military Commission. It is primarily responsible for safeguarding Beijing’s security during peacetime and covering the relocation or evacuation of central authorities during wartime. The unit is considered to play a crucial role in internal power struggles within Zhongnanhai.

Compared with Zhang Shengmin, last year then–CMC Vice Chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong presented a different “tone” when they “extended greetings” to Beijing-based troops. On the eve of last year’s New Year, Zhang Youxia and He Weidong respectively visited an information support unit, an Air Force radar brigade, and a transport and search-and-rescue aviation brigade. Aside from routine political statements expressing loyalty to Xi, their remarks only mentioned “strengthening war preparedness” and “political construction” in a perfunctory manner.

Li Linyi, a current affairs commentator for The Epoch Times, said that this year Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli—two commanders with real combat experience—were suddenly arrested, and many lower-level soldiers may feel dissatisfied. Therefore, Zhang Shengmin’s visit to military camps to emphasize “maintaining stability” reflects his primary responsibility and the purpose of this trip. His call to ensure “safety and stability” itself indicates that morale within the military is unstable.

Li Linyi also said that Zhang Shengmin’s public loyalty to Xi may not necessarily ensure his safety. Zhang Youxia had also publicly expressed loyalty in Party media late last year, only to suddenly fall from power.

Du Zheng, a commentator familiar with Chinese politics, previously wrote in Up Media that during the internal struggle between Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, and Xi Jinping, Zhang Shengmin was a figure courted by both sides. When Xi and He Weidong targeted Zhang Youxia by investigating equipment-related corruption, Zhang Shengmin carried out the execution. When Zhang Youxia attempted to bring down He Weidong, Zhang Shengmin contributed significantly to collecting evidence against Miao and He. But when Xi ultimately decided to remove Zhang Youxia, Zhang Shengmin once again sided with Xi.

On February 9, former Central Commission for Discipline Inspection official Wang Youqun wrote in The Epoch Times that although Zhang Shengmin has now become the high-ranking “number two figure in the entire military,” in reality he is walking on thin ice and could fall into an icy abyss at any moment.

Wang Youqun analyzed five reasons why Zhang Shengmin’s situation is highly precarious:

1. Zhang Shengmin assisted Xi in investigating Zhang Youxia’s associates, and also assisted Zhang Youxia in investigating Xi’s associates;

2. Zhang Shengmin has offended too many people;

3. Zhang Shengmin lacks a powerful patron;

4. If Xi dares to take down Zhang Youxia, why would he hesitate to take down Zhang Shengmin?

5. It is said that Xi believes strongly in prophecies and has been troubled by a prediction in the Tang Dynasty text Tui Bei Tu, which suggests that “a person bearing the character ‘bow’ (弓) will launch a military coup,” and he has been trying to prevent this prophecy from coming true.

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