Economic Recovery Becomes a Fantasy: The CCP’s Tactics to Mislead the Public Are Crude

Guangzhou housing market down by 70 percent. (Video screenshot)

[People News] Data released yesterday (December 15) by the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics show that China’s consumption, investment, and real estate markets continue to deteriorate, once again putting the issue of insufficient domestic demand in the spotlight. Meanwhile, state media have revived remarks made by CCP leader Xi Jinping ten years ago about “boosting consumption,” apparently to shift blame away from Xi. This, however, proves that his rhetoric over the past decade has been nothing but empty talk—amounting to pointless thrashing about.

According to data from the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics, multiple indicators—including “total retail sales of consumer goods,” “industrial added value,” “fixed asset investment,” “national real estate development investment,” and “average housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities”—are all showing downward trends. As of November, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, a key indicator of consumer spending, has slowed for six consecutive months. Household consumption in China accounts for about 40 percent of GDP, far below the more than 60 percent level seen in developed countries.

In response, X user “Lao Zhou Hengmei” posted on December 16 urging people not to harbor fantasies about an “economic recovery.” He pointed out: one planet, two worlds. The Wall Street Journal says that China’s economic indicators across multiple sectors are deteriorating across the board. China’s National Bureau of Statistics says that “economic operations continue an overall stable trend with steady progress.” In reality, those so-called year-on-year growth figures written into state-media videos are all meant to fool ordinary people.

“Lao Zhou Hengmei” said: “In fact, regarding the so-called ‘industrial added value year-on-year growth of 4.8 percent,’ what they don’t tell you is that this is lower than October’s 4.9 percent growth, making it the slowest growth rate since August 2024.

As for the so-called ‘total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year growth of 1.3 percent,’ what they don’t tell you is that this is far below October’s 2.9 percent and is the lowest level since December 2022 (when dynamic zero-COVID ended).

Many people may not understand this. They see that it’s still growth, just slower growth, and ask how that means China’s economy is doing badly. That’s why I say the CCP is exploiting the fact that most ordinary people don’t understand economics. I’ll try to explain it in very plain language so that everyone can understand why these figures show that China’s economy is facing serious problems.

Most people look at economic numbers only to see whether they are ‘positive’ or ‘negative,’ thinking that as long as there is growth, it’s a good thing. But economics has never been about simply whether something is ‘up,’ but about what it means when it ‘can’t keep growing.’ If the economy is like a car, it’s normal for the car to slow down when you don’t step on the gas. But over the past year, China has continuously cut interest rates, rolled out stimulus, and tried to expand domestic demand—yet industrial and consumption growth has slowed month by month. That shows that the harder you press the gas pedal, the more the speed drops, which means the engine must already be malfunctioning.

It’s normal that ordinary people don’t understand this. What I explained above requires a certain level of training and understanding in economics. As a government, if you don’t educate the public, that’s one thing—but the CCP has instead seized on this point to deliberately mislead the public, which is extremely unethical.”

Lao Zhou Hengmei concluded: “Let me tell everyone— even if you don’t understand anything else, just look at two pieces of data the CCP dares not tell you. First, fixed asset investment is declining both year-on-year and month-on-month. Second, the average housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities are declining both year-on-year and month-on-month. Looking at just these is enough. Don’t have any more fantasies about an ‘economic recovery.’”

U.S. economist David Huang told The Epoch Times that China’s economic problems—such as weak consumer purchasing power, strained local government finances, and enormous debt pressure—are only surface-level contradictions. The real problem lies in an economic structure dominated by the state-owned sector, with a continuous trend of “the state advancing and the private sector retreating.” History has shown that “the state advancing and the private sector retreating” makes it difficult for the economy to achieve long-term development or vitality.

“The state advancing and the private sector retreating” has been a national policy consistently pursued since Xi Jinping came to power. Data from the China Banking Association show that before Xi took office, the proportion of loans to private enterprises was consistently much higher than that to state-owned enterprises. After Xi came to power, the gap narrowed. By 2014, the lending proportions between state-owned and private enterprises had diverged again, and by 2016, more than 80 percent of bank lending went to state-owned enterprises. The trend of “the state advancing and the private sector retreating” had already become clearly visible.

U.S. economist David Huang again told The Epoch Times that China’s economic problems—insufficient consumer and household purchasing power, tight local finances, and massive debt pressure—are only surface contradictions. The real issue lies in an economic structure dominated by the state-owned sector and the continual “advance of the state and retreat of the private sector.” History proves that this model makes it very difficult for the economy to sustain long-term growth or vitality.

“The state advancing and the private sector retreating” is precisely the national policy that Xi Jinping has pursued since taking office. Data from the China Banking Association show that before Xi took power, the proportion of loans to private enterprises was always far higher than that to state-owned enterprises. After Xi took office, the gap narrowed. By 2014, the lending proportions between state-owned and private enterprises had widened again, and by 2016, more than 80 percent of bank loans were issued to state-owned enterprises, making the trend of “the state advancing and the private sector retreating” clearly evident.

In the “15th Five-Year Plan” proposals reviewed at the Fourth Plenum, the CCP authorities still designate high-end technology and advanced manufacturing as the top priorities for China’s economy over the next five years. This is clearly also a result of the “state advancing and the private sector retreating” policy. It shows that the CCP “has still not grasped the key issues at a fundamental level and has not truly confronted the problems facing China’s economy.”

Qiu Wanjun, a professor in the Department of Finance and Financial Management at Northeastern University in Boston, previously told The Epoch Times that the CCP’s political system determines that its long-term economic growth thinking emphasizes production over consumption, which is an inherent dilemma.

The CCP has consistently claimed to be committed to revitalizing the economy, but the results have been disappointing. As the top leader of the party, government, and military, Xi Jinping should logically bear responsibility for all of this. However, on the 16th, the CCP’s party journal Qiushi published Xi Jinping’s article “Expanding Domestic Demand Is a Strategic Move,” stating that “insufficient total demand” is the most prominent contradiction facing China’s current economic operations and claiming that an expanded domestic demand strategy will be implemented. The article compiles excerpts from Xi’s remarks made between October 2015 and October of this year.

In response, current affairs commentator Li Linyi said that state media’s presentation of Xi Jinping’s emphasis on promoting consumption from ten years ago seems to be an attempt to shift blame away from Xi—suggesting that the top leader always understood the issue, but that lower-level officials failed to carry it out. However, this in turn serves as evidence that Xi’s words over the past decade have been nothing but empty talk that has harmed the country, with futile thrashing about. It suggests that the entire bureaucracy has been deceiving him, with policies failing to leave Zhongnanhai. In reality, as a dictator, he cannot shirk responsibility.

Senior political and economic commentator Wu Jialong said that China’s economy has already lost its growth momentum, lacking domestic demand and relying solely on foreign markets to survive—yet the CCP continues to provoke conflicts abroad and quarrel with its largest customer, the United States, making the problems impossible to solve. Today, China’s domestic demand is so depressed fundamentally because the CCP’s top leadership does not genuinely care about ordinary people. They treat the public as “human mines,” caring only about whether the interests of the elite are protected.

On December 14, the CCP’s People’s Daily published on its front page Xi Jinping’s speech at the Central Economic Work Conference. Xi criticized local officials for inflating performance figures, launching fake projects, and engaging in “invoice-based economics,” claiming that growth should be “real and solid, without water.”

Wu Jialong said this shows that many of China’s economic problems can no longer be covered up. The central authorities are now demanding that provincial- and ministerial-level officials find solutions, but because Xi has cracked down on corruption, these officials are all living in fear, pushing responsibility away whenever possible and hiding whenever they can. △