Photo Caption: The first session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on March 5, 2023, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
[People News] Recently, the CPC convened a national CPPCC meeting, where Xi Jinping and six other members of the Standing Committee were observed whispering and passing notes to each other, appearing relaxed and seemingly indifferent to the recent US-Iran conflict, which has attracted attention from international commentators. After Wang Huning delivered his report, he nodded to the praesidium behind him as a sign of respect, which was interpreted as a bow to Xi Jinping. Is the CPC truly so unfazed by the current situation?
I believe these small gestures are carefully orchestrated, intended to project an image of calm, alleviate internal party anxieties, and serve as a smokescreen to deflect societal discontent towards the CPC.
Historically, during the CPC's National People's Congress and CPPCC meetings, members on the podium have maintained a serious demeanor, sitting upright with solemn expressions, and typically refraining from any notable actions (the only exception being Hu Jintao being escorted out of the venue), as any movement could be deliberately misinterpreted by outsiders, undermining the authority of the Party Central Committee. Thus, they would rather remain like statues for hours on end.
Just recently, at the State Council's Chinese New Year banquet, all attending high-ranking officials wore grim expressions, showing no emotion, and refrained from interacting with those next to them, not even daring to shift their bodies slightly. The Chinese New Year banquet is a day meant for nationwide celebration, which should be filled with joy and a vibrant atmosphere, yet the environment was cold and stiff, resembling a funeral. If the CPC genuinely held such an optimistic and relaxed perspective on the current situation, then the atmosphere at the Chinese New Year banquet should have reflected some semblance of joy.
The Chinese New Year has just passed, and the situation has not improved; in fact, it has become more severe and deteriorated. With increasing internal and external pressures, and Iran teetering on the edge of collapse, the lives of the seven members of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (Zhongguo Gongchandang) have become even more challenging. Compared to the Chinese New Year gala, the outlook is only more pessimistic, not more optimistic. Consequently, the performances of several Standing Committee members on the podium of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (Zhongguo Renmin Zhengxie) are merely small gestures that have been intentionally arranged. These actions aim to alleviate the crisis, prevent the spread of various pessimistic sentiments within the party and society, and dispel some unfavourable rumours.
The annual meetings of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress (Zhongguo Quanguo Renmin Daibiao Dahui) are significant events that require thorough preparation in advance, including various political, economic, and personnel arrangements. Although the agenda and resolutions have already been approved internally and are just waiting for a show of hands, it is still necessary to create a harmonious and enthusiastic atmosphere on the surface. Therefore, the two sessions cannot afford any mistakes; even major issues must wait until the sessions are concluded before being addressed.
So, what major international or domestic issues are there that cannot wait until the meeting is over to be handled? Aside from the U.S.-Iran conflict, there is currently nothing so urgent that it must be discussed in front of everyone at the conference. Iran was already defeated at the beginning of the war, and now the only question remaining is whether the U.S. will deploy ground troops. In this regard, the Communist Party of China has no place to intervene, and there is no need to make decisions on-site at the CPPCC meeting.
Moreover, if the notes and whispers involve significant matters, then such issues certainly cannot be resolved in an instant with a piece of paper and a whisper. So what is the purpose of these small gestures? If there is nothing to address, why engage in such actions?
The reality is that the act of passing notes and whispering has created an atmosphere at the venue that feels somewhat unusual, appearing more relaxed and lively than usual, rather than grim and heavy, lifeless and dull. This is something that the senior leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) needs to stabilise public sentiment. Amid the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the CCP's top officials remain calm, confident, and united internally. This kind of presentation is practically essential for the CCP, which finds itself in a precarious situation.
The impact of the US-Iran war on the CCP is significantly greater than the CCP's own assessments. The party's position has been thrown into disarray, leaving it unsure of how to respond, merely waiting to see how Iran will meet its demise, how it will be next in line, and what strategies it can employ to survive afterwards.
The CCP's loss of Iran as an ally signifies three major setbacks in terms of strategy, tactics, and psychology. Strategically, with one of the four members of the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran axis removed, both China and Russia are facing serious challenges, and their futures are uncertain. With Iran's departure, the malevolent forces in the Middle East will be diminished, and if China and Russia wish to re-engage in Middle Eastern affairs, there will be 'no more songs to sing'.
Should the Iranian theocratic government fall, global terrorism will likely collapse, leading to stability in the Middle East, allowing Western nations to focus on economic and social issues. The Russia-Ukraine conflict will be managed by Europe, while the United States will redirect its focus to Asia-Pacific affairs, achieving overwhelming military superiority over the CCP. Strategically, this situation will become a long-term nightmare for the CCP.
Iran serves as the linchpin of the CCP's Belt and Road Initiative. If Iran collapses, the ambitious plans of the Belt and Road Initiative will be thwarted, with hundreds of billions in investments vanishing without a trace. At a time when the CCP is grappling with internal strife and external challenges, such a setback is something Xi Jinping cannot justify to the party and the public.
From a tactical standpoint, if Iran were to collapse, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would face significant obstacles in importing oil from the Middle East. Alongside Venezuela, the United States could strategically leverage energy resources to exploit the CCP's vulnerabilities, placing the party in a notably weaker position during negotiations. Additionally, the inflation resulting from rising oil prices would further devastate the CCP's domestic economy.
The US-Iran conflict has revealed the CCP's weaknesses in weaponry, demonstrating that the party's boasts about advanced national defence capabilities are essentially laughable. The CCP's military equipment is completely ineffective against the US military. The question remains: how much effort will Xi Jinping need to invest in rooting out corruption within the military, reforming weapon research and manufacturing, and how many high-ranking military officials will face purges? This is a concern that will undoubtedly keep Xi Jinping awake at night.
On a psychological level, the US-Iran war has had a profoundly negative effect on the mindset of CCP members. The formidable strength of the US military, along with its capabilities in information warfare, electronic warfare, and targeted strikes, instils fear within the CCP. The idea of the East rising and the West declining has proven to be utterly bankrupt, leading to increased scepticism about Xi Jinping's leadership within the party. Social resistance is likely to escalate, and the unity of the party and the public will further erode, making it increasingly challenging for the CCP to stabilise the chaos and navigate its way out of this crisis.
With precise strikes, the US has effectively eliminated the highest authorities in Iran in one decisive blow. This action will cast a long-lasting shadow over Xi Jinping and other senior CCP officials, who will find themselves living in constant fear. The upper echelons of the party will never feel secure, always facing the threat of assassination. How can they effectively lead a party of one hundred million people?
In today's China, where the economy and people's livelihoods are facing significant challenges, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has further deepened the Communist Party's crisis. Amid this perilous situation, during the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, high-ranking officials continue to casually pass notes and whisper to one another, which serves only as a facade—akin to whistling in a graveyard at midnight to bolster their courage.
People often resort to various means to conceal their inner chaos, and Xi Jinping is no exception. The scene on the podium of the CPPCC reveals the Communist Party's underlying cowardice and its awkwardness in being indecisive and directionless. They are aware that a crisis is approaching, yet they lack effective strategies to confront it, resorting instead to avoidance. The reality is harsh, the situation is urgent, and the crisis must ultimately be resolved; the real issue lies not in how meetings are conducted, but in how to manage the aftermath.
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