Is the Future Dangerous for CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin?

March 11, 2023: Senior members of the CCP’s Central Military Commission line up to take the oath at the National People’s Congress. From right to left: Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News] On February 6, when Xi Jinping attended a New Year cultural performance to慰问 retired military cadres in Beijing, the only Central Military Commission (CMC) leader accompanying him was Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin.

The 20th CMC, personally formed by Xi in 2022, originally had seven members. Now, aside from Xi, only Zhang Shengmin remains. Vice chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, and CMC members Li Shangfu, Miao Hua, and Liu Zhenli have all been removed. One by one, those closest to Xi in the CMC have been purged by Xi himself. Now Zhang Shengmin is the closest man to Xi — what will become of him?

Many commentators believe Zhang is also in a high-risk position and could be taken down by Xi at any time.

I think this view makes sense. Although Zhang Shengmin is now the only vice chairman under Xi and above more than two million troops, he is in fact walking on thin ice — and could fall through at any moment.

Five Reasons Zhang Shengmin Is in Danger

1. Zhang helped Xi investigate Zhang Youxia’s people, and helped Zhang Youxia investigate Xi’s people.

Soon after the 20th Party Congress, fierce infighting broke out among the PLA’s top ranks. Xi began by investigating the Rocket Force, which led to probing Li Shangfu, then CMC member, State Councilor, Defense Minister, and former head of the Equipment Development Department. Many of Li’s former subordinates — generals of various ranks — were also removed.

Li Shangfu was widely seen as aligned with Zhang Youxia. Thus, the investigation into Li ultimately targeted Zhang Youxia.

Who carried out these investigations? Zhang Shengmin, as head of the CMC Discipline Inspection Commission.

Later, when Xi suddenly fell ill during the Third Plenum in July 2024, Zhang Youxia reportedly seized the moment to counterattack, backed by some Party elders and military figures dissatisfied with Xi. A second wave of purges followed, and key Xi allies Miao Hua and He Weidong were removed — again with investigations conducted by Zhang Shengmin.

Thus Zhang Shengmin helped purge both Zhang Youxia’s camp and Xi’s own loyalists. In such a power struggle, that is an extremely dangerous position.

2. Zhang Shengmin has made too many enemies.

Zhang has served as head of the military discipline body since 2017 — the longest tenure in recent decades. The longer he served, the more major cases he handled. According to incomplete statistics, he may have investigated over 260 generals. Such a role inevitably creates countless enemies.

3. Zhang has no strong patron behind him.

Although promoted under Xi, Zhang did not come from Xi’s closest military faction (the former 31st Group Army). Earlier in his career, he served under Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, both later purged. That history puts distance between him and Xi. And his role in bringing down Xi’s trusted generals widened that gap further.

4. If Xi could take down Zhang Youxia, he can certainly take down Zhang Shengmin.

Xi and Zhang Youxia are both “princelings,” with family ties dating back to revolutionary days. Zhang Youxia had real combat experience and strong influence in the PLA. If even such a figure could be purged, Zhang Shengmin has even less protection.

5. Xi is said to be highly sensitive to certain prophecies.

Some claim Xi is wary of a prophecy in the Tang-dynasty text Tui Bei Tu describing a general with “a bow” in his name overthrowing a ruler. The character 张 (Zhang) contains the radical for “bow.” Xi has already removed Zhang Youxia — could Zhang Shengmin be next?

Conclusion

In the CCP’s power hierarchy, the closer one rises to the top, the more dangerous the position becomes. Since 1949, eight CMC vice chairmen have fallen from power. Zhang Shengmin, now the sole remaining vice chairman, still faces a perilous future — perhaps sleeping with one eye open.

(Dajiyuan)