[People News] The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has relied on party officials forming communities of shared interests to create a balance of power and maintain its rule. The largest such community of shared interests is maintained through the Party structure to safeguard the personal and factional interests of small groups and individuals. However, after the recent wave of senior officials such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli being arrested, this community has begun to show signs of cracking. Observers analyze that, because constant adjustments and reshaping of personnel and power are required—forcing choices, taking sides, and continual reshuffling—the structural foundation on which Xi Jinping relies to rule is beginning to show signs of disintegration.

Why was it that the arrests of He Weidong, Miao Hua, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao and other vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, along with batches of generals who were Xi loyalists, as well as large numbers of ministerial-level officials in the Party and government system such as Jiang Chaoliang and Liu Hui, did not lead to visible cracks in the power community—yet after Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were taken down, the cracks suddenly became apparent? The reason is that Zhang Youxia, like Xi, is a “second-generation red.” As Xi’s childhood friend and family associate, he made enormous contributions to Xi’s reappointment at the 20th Party Congress. He broke the CCP’s personnel convention of “seven up, eight down” and was promoted to First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, second only to Xi Jinping… But Zhang’s problems did not arise overnight. There seemed to have been earlier signs that he was already in trouble: his former subordinate Li Shangfu fell from power, several former secretaries were investigated, and he was marginalized during the Victory Day military parade… It seems that this temperamental organization, the CCP, had long been secretly plotting his arrest.

Zhang Youxia was due to retire after the 21st Party Congress next year. Xi could have allowed him to retire quietly, relinquish power, and stay out of military affairs. But Xi insisted on ruining his reputation in advance. This shows the cruelty and ruthlessness of the CCP’s meat grinder. In that case, who among Xi’s own faction can be sure they will not be suddenly arrested? Which trusted aide would not start considering their own exit strategy?

Before Xi Jinping came to power, according to publicly available statistics, only one full general in CCP history—Huang Yongsheng—had been dealt with, due to his involvement in the Lin Biao incident in 1971. During the eras of Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao, no full generals were purged. Since Xi took power, 25 full generals have already been expelled from the Party and stripped of military rank. Most of these generals were promoted during Xi’s tenure and investigated during the same period.

On January 25, an editorial published in the PLA Daily accused Zhang and Liu of “five serious offenses,” including “seriously trampling and undermining the system of responsibility of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.” The word “trampling” suggests contempt, humiliation, and disrespect toward Xi Jinping. Previously, the PLA Daily’s editorials accused He Weidong and Miao Hua of “seriously undermining the Party’s principle that the Party commands the gun and the system of responsibility of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.” In a December 22, 2016 commentary, the paper said that former vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, who fell after the 18th Party Congress, had “seriously undermined the system of responsibility of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.”

The comparison shows that Xi and the CCP appear to be getting harsher in cracking down on close associates—the closer they are, the harsher the treatment. How could this not chill the hearts of people within the group, and even throughout the entire military and Party? Years of anti-corruption campaigns clearly reflect Xi Jinping’s lack of trust in senior generals. Whether they are “second-generation reds,” members of veteran factions, descendants of senior officials, or have other connections, none are allowed to voice dissent or challenge authority—otherwise they may suddenly become prisoners. This marks Xi Jinping’s open break with traditional forces within the Party, government, and military.

With the 21st Party Congress approaching, how will Xi Jinping arrange the power structure, and how will he use the community of shared interests to keep this broken CCP machine running? It can be said that, looking around Zhongnanhai and beyond, there is only confusion. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find people he can trust, who dare to take responsibility, and who are willing to keep steering the CCP’s battered ship forward for him.

People both inside and outside the system will think: power is unreliable, ideology is a lie, and even the corrupt community of shared interests formed by Xi’s own faction is unreliable. Then how can we believe that “loyalty ensures safety”? How can we form a group with your people? From Zhongnanhai down to county-level officials, the final conclusion they draw is this: always be ready to cut ties with leaders, colleagues, and anyone they work with. In this way, the glue that once held the organization together shifts from mutual dependence to fear—mutual guarding, suspicion, and harm. As a result, “lying flat” and passive governance spread, and bureaucratic behavior collectively turns toward risk avoidance: avoid making decisions if possible, avoid taking responsibility if possible, avoid standing out if possible… Officials have come to realize that those who can truly hold onto power are not merely those who show loyalty or choose the right side, but those who are best at hiding, pretending, and shifting blame—the more marginalized, the better… Thus, the power community quietly transforms from a “community of shared interests” into a “loose structure,” and begins to fracture.

(First published by People News)
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