March 11, 2023: Senior members of the CCP’s Central Military Commission line up to take the oath at the National People’s Congress. From right to left: Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
[People News] On July 30, the Communist Party of China convened a Politburo meeting, which confirmed the schedule and agenda for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. Signals from this meeting have led political insiders to keenly observe that Xi Jinping is unlikely to announce his resignation during the Fourth Plenary Session and will likely continue to hold the position of the top leader. This raises the question: Will there be any unexpected developments before the Fourth Plenary Session?
Independent commentator Chen Pokuang analysed that while Xi Jinping has demonstrated a refusal to step down, there may be another consideration at the Fourth Plenary Session—a compromise that could involve confirming a successor.
Chen Pokuang noted that if the Fourth Plenary Session sees an increase in the number of Politburo Standing Committee members or adjustments within the committee, and a clear successor emerges, such as Ding Xuexiang, Chen Jining, Hu Chunhua, or others, it would indicate that Xi Jinping is negotiating with political elders and various factions.
He further analysed that if a successor is identified during the Fourth Plenary Session, it would suggest that Xi Jinping plans to retire by the latest at the 21st National Congress in 2027. Conversely, if no successor is announced, it may indicate Xi Jinping's intention to maintain long-term rule.
Chen Pokuang emphasised that the political manoeuvring surrounding the Fourth Plenary Session is still ongoing. Until the day of the session, the final outcome remains uncertain, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. The July Politburo meeting indicated Xi Jinping's refusal to step down, but this does not guarantee that he will achieve all his objectives; the ultimate results of the Fourth Plenary Session will be crucial.
So, ahead of the Fourth Plenary Session, will there be any unexpected developments from now until October?
Professor Zhang Tianliang from Feitian University remarked in his program "Tianliang Lunzheng" that while no one can completely dismiss the possibility of a sudden coup occurring on a dark and stormy night, such events are determined by fate and cannot simply be orchestrated by human will.
Zhang believes that in the latter half of this year, the relationship between China and the United States will reach a critical point, with a potential for direct confrontation. This scenario is still relatively favourable. A more concerning situation would arise if China and the U.S. begin to confront each other, and Trump fails to maintain a firm stance, opting instead for compromises similar to those made in the first half of this year. Both of these scenarios regarding Sino-U.S. relations could significantly impact Xi Jinping's hold on power.
The announcement from the Political Bureau meeting on July 30 indicated that the main agenda for the Fourth Plenary Session involves the Political Bureau of the Central Committee reporting its work to the Central Committee and discussing recommendations for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development.
The so-called "15th Five-Year Plan" by the Communist Party refers to the planning period from 2026 to 2030. The Communist Party is set to hold its 21st National Congress in 2027 for leadership transitions. The timeline of the "15th Five-Year Plan" overlaps with the 21st National Congress. The signals sent by Xi Jinping raise the question of whether this suggests he will not only refrain from stepping down at the Fourth Plenary Session but will also seek re-election at the 21st National Congress.
On July 30, Le Figaro analysed that there are currently two sharply contrasting viewpoints gaining traction. One perspective suggests that Xi Jinping is under attack from his peers and is at the heart of a power struggle; conversely, the other viewpoint argues that he remains in power but is encountering challenges within the regime.
The article discusses that the lack of transparency within the regime makes the impact of Xi Jinping unclear. Nevertheless, analysts suggest that Xi Jinping's public image is increasingly worsening. △
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