Reports Indicate That Xi and Cai May Be Forced to Resign Due to Age; US Media Suggests Xi Could Transfer Power at the Fourth Plenary Session

The picture shows Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, attending the National People's Congress on March 12, 2023. (Screenshot from the web)

[People News] The Chinese Communist Party is set to convene its Fourth Plenary Session on October 20. Speculation has been rampant regarding the intense power struggle between Xi Jinping and the anti-Xi faction, with significant changes anticipated at the session. On October 7, Gordon Guthrie Chang, an American lawyer, writer, and PhD in law from Cornell University, analysed the possibility of Xi Jinping transferring power during the Fourth Plenary Session on FOX News, a mainstream US media outlet, stating that Xi is losing control over his power. Independent commentator Cai Shenkun also disclosed that he has received information suggesting that both Xi Jinping and Cai Qi may be forced to step down due to age.

Cai Shenkun mentioned in the program that the individual who provided him with this information currently lives overseas and has close connections with the CCP's senior leadership.

The informant revealed that there is widespread discussion among party officials, personnel in political and legal institutions, and ordinary grassroots citizens about a significant shift in the political landscape of Zhongnanhai. The potential resignation of Xi Jinping and Cai Qi is seen as a crucial indicator. If Xi Jinping does not exhibit any signs of power loosening at the Fourth Plenary Session, it would imply that the various rumours circulating prior are unfounded or unsubstantiated.

However, if Xi Jinping concedes even a single position at the Fourth Plenary Session, it could lead to a collapse of his power within the next two years, making it impossible to sustain the current power structure.

The informant also indicated that many believe Xi Jinping and Cai Qi will be compelled to resign due to their age.

Xi Jinping, born in 1953, is 72 years old this year, while Cai Qi, born in 1955, is 70.

The retirement age for members of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is governed by the principle known as 'seven up, eight down.' This means that members aged 67 and below can continue in their roles, while those aged 68 and above are required to retire. This guideline has been in place since the 16th National Congress of the CPC in 2002 and has gradually become an unwritten rule regarding political succession within the party. Although the specifics of this rule are not clearly outlined in official documents, it has served as a significant reference for power transitions within the CPC since the Jiang Zemin era.

The concept of the 'seventy-year line' indicates that members of the Politburo Standing Committee who exceed the age of 70 are not allowed to seek re-election. This rule was introduced during the 15th National Congress of the CPC in 1997. In response to a challenge from Qiao Shi, who was then the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, Jiang Zemin proposed the 'seventy-year line' to ensure Qiao Shi would retire at the appropriate age, thereby preventing a situation where 'the water recedes and the rocks appear' (referring to Jiang Zemin stepping down and Qiao Shi exiting).

At the 16th National Congress of the CPC in 2002, Hu Jintao took over as the fourth-generation leader. To effectively manage personnel, Jiang Zemin reiterated the unwritten rule of 'continue working at 67, step down at 68,' successfully sidelining Li Ruihuan, who was then the Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and had reached the retirement age of 68.

By age standards, Xi Jinping and Cai Qi should be stepping down from their current political roles, but who is compelling them to resign?

Cai Shenkun noted that insiders have not provided a complete answer. Is it Zhang Youxia, the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, or the CPC elders? How much influence do these elders still wield today?

Insiders have reported on developments concerning former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (Wēn Jiābǎo). According to these reports, all documents circulated within the upper echelons of the party must be submitted to Wen Jiabao for his signature. However, the authenticity of this information remains unverified.

Additionally, there are disclosures indicating that the conflict between Xi Jinping (Xí Jìnpíng) and Zhang Youxia (Zhāng Yòuxiá) has escalated to an irreconcilable level, with both parties being fundamentally opposed, reaching a point of life-and-death confrontation.

In light of this, Cai Shenkun (Cài Shènkūn) expressed scepticism, noting that based on their recent public appearances, there is no indication that Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia have reached such a critical juncture when they appear together at events.

Anti-communist blogger Lao Deng (Lǎo Dēng) disclosed at the end of August via social media that there were reports circulating within the country, claiming that the Central Military Commission had issued an order appointing Liu Zhenli (Liú Zhènlì), Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, to take direct command of the 82nd Group Army until the completion of the special mission assigned by the Central Military Commission.'

The reports suggest that the 82nd Group Army, an elite unit directly under the Central Military Commission and formerly known as the 38th Army's special operations unit, 'has been ordered to garrison in Beijing, taking direct responsibility for the security and protection of the Central Military Commission, and has assumed the guard duties at Zhongnanhai.'

Furthermore, it is reported that Liu Zhenli convened all officers of the rank of major and above at the 82nd Group Army's base on August 23 for a significant mobilisation meeting.

During this meeting, Liu Zhenli conveyed the directives from the expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission, clearly stating that the current operations of the Military Commission are being overseen by Zhang Youxia, the Executive Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

He emphasised that the 82nd Group Army, as the key force of the Central Military Commission, has the crucial responsibility of protecting the Party Central Committee, the Central Military Commission, and national security. All officers and soldiers must recognise the current situation, strictly follow orders, and take on the sacred mission of safeguarding reform and opening up, being prepared at all times to decisively thwart any conspiracies from counter-revolutionary military groups.

Liu Zhenli's remarks reportedly received enthusiastic support from all personnel in the 82nd Group Army. It has been reported that the 82nd Group Army has entered a state of heightened alert, ready to respond to any emergencies at a moment's notice.

There are currently varying opinions on the stability of Xi Jinping's power.

Mainstream American media outlet FOX News invited Cornell University law doctorate holder Zhang Jiadun on October 7 to analyse whether Xi Jinping has lost power. Zhang Jiadun stated that while it is difficult to assess the extent of Xi Jinping's potential loss of power, there is a possibility that he could lose the positions of General Secretary and Chairman of the Military Commission during the Fourth Plenary Session.

Zhang Jiadun indicated that his assessment of Xi Jinping's power troubles stems from comments made by the U.S. Ambassador to China, who mentioned that Trump and Xi Jinping are unlikely to meet until next year. This leads Zhang Jiadun to conclude that Xi Jinping may be under house arrest and unable to travel abroad, or he may be concerned that travelling could lead to a loss of control over his power.

According to a report by CNBC, U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue stated on September 23 that the much-anticipated meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. is more likely to occur next year rather than this fall.

Chinese expert Song Guocheng recently commented on the program "Shibata Akio Newtalk," stating, "The instability of Xi Jinping's power is not merely a rumour. These rumours indicate, on one hand, Xi Jinping's awareness of a power crisis, and on the other hand, the precariousness of his position. Both of these phenomena are observable." 

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