Zhao Leji Absent from China's NPC Closing Ceremony Due to Health Reasons, Sparking Widespread Speculation

File photo: Within the CCP's top leadership circle, it is said that Zhao Leji is like a parasite in Xi Jinping’s stomach, tasked with handling the dirty work that Xi cannot say outright. (Screenshot from video)

[People News] Beijing’s biggest political event of the year, the "Two Sessions" (the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), concluded on Tuesday (March 11). While this week-long gathering of over 2,000 participants set economic growth targets and approved the government work report, it also left many unanswered questions, both political and economic.

International media took notice of an unusual occurrence at the closing ceremony of the National People’s Congress (NPC): Zhao Leji, a member of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee and chairman of the NPC, was absent. Presiding over the session in his place was NPC Vice Chairman and Politburo member Li Hongzhong, who explained that Zhao’s absence was due to a "respiratory infection."

This explanation has raised doubts, as the health conditions of senior CCP leaders are considered highly classified and rarely disclosed to the public. Reuters reported that at 68 years old, Zhao Leji’s absence from such a crucial event at the Great Hall of the People marks the first time in over two decades that a sitting NPC chairman has missed it.

Song Wendi, a China political analyst at the Atlantic Council, stated, "It is certainly unusual for the chairman of China’s National People’s Congress to miss the most important meeting of the year," adding that "such occurrences are extremely rare."

Chinese state media reported that Zhao Leji also did not attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on Monday, nor did he participate in the NPC Presidium’s third meeting. No official explanation was provided.

In the CCP system, an absence due to "illness" often carries ominous implications, potentially signaling that the official is in trouble. In 2023, former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was absent from a diplomatic summit in Indonesia, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry at the time attributing it to "health reasons." However, Qin then mysteriously disappeared for a month, amid rumors that he had been involved in an extramarital affair. Several months later, it was officially confirmed that Qin had been removed from office.

The Associated Press reported that Zhao Leji was absent from a Politburo study meeting in January 2022. The Communist Party of China did not provide any explanation for this absence, and state media did not publish a list of leaders who attended the session.

In October 2022, Xi Jinping also removed his predecessor Hu Jintao from the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, citing 'health reasons,' which attracted significant international attention.

Regarding the economy, the 'Two Sessions' did not offer a clear path for economic revitalization to the outside world. The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that the Communist Party of China may reveal its relevant policies to the public in the coming months. However, it is anticipated that this period will be marked by uncertainty for the Chinese economy, as the trade war between the United States and China, along with competition in other areas, is expected to escalate.

The National People's Congress (NPC) of the Communist Party of China is nominally similar to a Western parliament, but its primary function is to symbolically deliberate and pass decisions made by the highest levels of the Communist Party, thus completing a legal procedure. This has led to it being referred to as a 'rubber stamp.'

The NPC's announcement of a roughly 5% economic growth target for this year has raised skepticism among analysts. They believe that achieving this target will be challenging based on the measures proposed by the NPC. These measures include increasing borrowing to fund various stimulus initiatives, such as allocating 300 billion yuan for trade-in programs for automobiles, home appliances, and other goods. However, most of the financing is expected to be directed towards stabilizing the real estate market and assisting local governments burdened with debt in repaying their loans.

The Associated Press reported that Jeremy Zook, Chief China Analyst at Fitch Ratings, noted in a recent report, "While the deficit has significantly increased, it remains unclear how this budget will affect potential domestic demand and inflation." 

The ambitious target of 5% economic growth appears to signal that Beijing is poised to introduce additional stimulus measures. However, given the unprecedented number and scale of related initiatives launched by the Chinese Communist Party since last September, the outcomes have been less than satisfactory. Aside from the artificially inflated Chinese stock market, there has been no substantial improvement in the persistent issues of weak demand, ongoing deflation, and rising unemployment. 

Although the National Bureau of Statistics of China declared that the country met its 5% economic growth target last year, this assertion has become a source of ridicule among economists studying the Chinese economy. Some prominent economists in China believe that the actual growth rate may not exceed 2%. 

Last year, the Chinese economy faced an overall downturn that is rarely seen in decades, with the collapse of the real estate market adversely affecting many other sectors. The producer price index has consistently declined, consumer spending has decreased, the unemployment rate remains elevated, and most local governments across the country are heavily indebted and unable to drive economic growth. The only positive aspect has been exports. However, in the last two months, the tariff war initiated by the United States has rapidly escalated on a global scale. Many countries, influenced by the U.S., have imposed tariff barriers against China, casting a significant shadow over China's international trade.

(Source: Voice of America)