Why Is Trump Certain That Xi Jinping Won’t Move on Taiwan During His Term?

The top image shows the U.S. Navy’s Wasp-class amphibious assault ship (LHD-1), while the bottom image shows China’s Type 075 amphibious assault ship, which imitates the U.S. design but lacks a full range of helicopters and has no available fighter jets. (Video screenshot)

[People News] – On March 7, tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan played out in a war of words. On one hand, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated at the "Two Sessions" press conference that Beijing "will and must" unify Taiwan, with an implied threat. Almost simultaneously, on the other side of the Pacific, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated in a CNBC interview that President Trump believes Xi Jinping will not act on Taiwan during his term. So, will the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) take military action against Taiwan in the next four years?

For the Trump administration, this issue represents the greatest uncertainty and challenge. For the CCP leadership, it is a life-or-death gamble that they cannot decide lightly. There are diverse opinions on this matter.

This article focuses on why Trump is convinced that Xi will not move on Taiwan during his presidency.

From a rational decision-making perspective, this question is not overly complex. By weighing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of both the U.S. and China, one can arrive at a basic judgment.

It is widely understood that the military and overall national strength of China and the U.S. differ vastly. If war were to break out, the CCP’s chances of victory would be very low. This fundamental reality has prevented the CCP from launching an invasion of Taiwan for decades. Furthermore, Russia’s unexpected entrapment in the Ukraine war has made the CCP even more cautious.

Although U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Xi Jinping has ordered the military to be ready for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 in case action becomes necessary, the true combat capability of the Chinese military remains highly questionable to outside observers.

During the Chinese New Year period, the renowned RAND Corporation released three consecutive reports on the Chinese military, revealing that the primary objective of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is to safeguard the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This has resulted in certain structural deficiencies within the PLA. For example, the report Factors Shaping the Future of China’s Military points out that while the PLA has attempted to develop joint operational capabilities by following the U.S. military’s model, the CCP’s highly centralized system—where "the Party commands the gun"—undermines the foundation of joint operations: the ability of officers and soldiers to make autonomous decisions in uncertain situations. The report also states that the PLA's "fundamental mission remains to uphold the rule of the Chinese Communist Party rather than to genuinely prepare for war." Political factors sometimes interfere with military objectives, such as the PLA spending up to 40% of its training time on political indoctrination. Another report, Political Legitimacy and the People’s Liberation Army, states that Xi Jinping’s declining approval ratings have deeply impacted the PLA’s development and performance.

Furthermore, corruption has severely eroded the Chinese military. In December 2023, the Pentagon’s annual China Military Power Report included, for the first time, a dedicated section on corruption in the PLA. According to the report, between July and December 2023, at least 15 senior military officers and defense industry executives were dismissed. This undoubtedly disrupted morale and may have already affected the CCP’s progress toward military modernization.

Indeed, corruption is a fatal flaw in the PLA. Since Xi Jinping came to power, he has purged two former vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and four sitting CMC members have fallen from power—Zhang Yang and Fang Fenghui before the 19th Party Congress, and Li Shangfu and Miao Hua after the 20th. This indicates that despite Xi's decade-long effort to "fight tigers" (a term for his anti-corruption campaign), corruption has not been curbed; rather, the more he fights it, the worse it gets.

Take, for example, China’s Rocket Force and nuclear weapons—its most effective means of deterring the U.S. In the Rocket Force’s corruption scandal that surfaced in 2023, all three of its former commanders—Li Yuchao, Zhou Yaning, and Wei Fenghe—were removed from power. The scandal even implicated a CMC member, State Councilor, and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu. Additionally, China’s leading nuclear research institution, the China Academy of Engineering Physics, saw its president, Liu Cangli (62), and vice president, Mo Zeyao (53), simultaneously dismissed on July 5, 2023, with no official statement on their whereabouts—suggesting, per recent CCP trends, that they "got into trouble." Zhang Kejian, who previously served as Party Secretary of the China Academy of Engineering Physics, was also dismissed from his roles as Party Secretary and Director of the National Defense Science and Technology Administration between December 2023 and January 2024. In early 2024, several high-ranking executives from China National Nuclear Corporation, including Chairman Yu Jianfeng, have unexpectedly been absent from public events, leading observers to suspect that they may have also been purged.

Can a military and defense industry system plagued by such corruption wage and win a war?

On March 7, at the National People’s Congress, Xi Jinping attended a meeting with military delegates and made remarks emphasizing the need to "build a frugal military, allocate defense resources scientifically, improve the precision and efficiency of military spending, and strengthen oversight to combat corruption."

His comments clearly suggest that corruption in the PLA is severe and that military spending efficiency is alarmingly low. It appears that Xi has quite a few headaches to deal with.

For any rational decision-maker, it is difficult to entrust a structurally flawed and deeply corrupt military with the responsibility of waging and winning a war—so launching a military operation is unlikely.

Trump is confident that Xi will not act against Taiwan during his presidency because he believes Xi remains rational on the Taiwan issue.

More importantly, Trump is convinced that under his leadership, the U.S. will enter a "golden age" in which the gap between the U.S. and China will widen rather than shrink. As long as the U.S. demonstrates firm resolve and credibility, it will be enough to deter Xi and the CCP.

This reasoning is largely sound. However, it is based on one key assumption: that Xi Jinping and the CCP will make rational decisions.

Yet, CCP history is filled with irrational decision-making, from Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution to Jiang Zemin’s persecution of Falun Gong.

Trump faces a major challenge: What if the CCP loses its rationality on the Taiwan issue? How should he respond effectively?

Does Trump have a comprehensive strategy? Of course. As The Art of War states: "Engage with conventional tactics, but achieve victory through surprise." Trump will act accordingly. 

(Source: Dajiyuan)