Zhang Youxia’s Mysterious Disappearance: Is Miao Hua Following Qin Gang’s Path?

Illustration: Is Zhang Youxia the "bowman" predicted in the Tui Bei Tu prophecy to launch a coup? (Illustration by People’s Report)

[People News] The investigation into Miao Hua, a member of the CCP Central Military Commission and director of the Political Department, remains a hot topic for overseas media, while official CCP outlets remain conspicuously silent, shrouded in dead air. This stark contrast highlights the CCP regime's opacity, fragility, and hypocrisy.

Online discussions abroad widely interpret Miao Hua's downfall as yet another piece of evidence of Xi Jinping losing his grip on military power. It suggests that Xi's efforts to position loyalists within the military have suffered a severe blow and could even be on the brink of collapse.

Recent reports swirling online paint a grim picture: Wang Houbin, the current commander of the Rocket Force from the 31st Army lineage, and Defense Minister Dong Jun have reportedly been summoned for questioning; Lin Xiangyang, commander of the Eastern Theater Command, allegedly committed suicide; and Wang Chunning, commander of the People’s Armed Police, has reportedly been detained. If these reports are accurate, they indicate that the CCP's lifeline—the military, the core pillar of the regime's survival—has seen its internal power structure and organizational hierarchy severely challenged, confronting an unprecedented crisis.

Zhang Youxia, the first vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), has been pinpointed by analysts as a key player in the current upheaval within the CCP’s military. However, it is peculiar that Zhang Youxia has not appeared in CCP media for over a month. Party media last reported Zhang accompanying Xi Jinping on an inspection of the Rocket Force’s 61st Brigade Base in Huangshan, Anhui Province, on October 17. Reports also covered his hosting of an all-military training conference in Zhangjiakou, Hebei, from October 20 to 22, and his official visit to Vietnam from October 26, where he met with senior Vietnamese officials.

Since his Vietnam visit, more than 40 days ago, Zhang Youxia has not been seen, fueling speculation about his sudden disappearance. Notably, other CMC members, such as He Weidong and Zhang Shengmin, have also been absent from public view for extended periods. Given Zhang Youxia’s pivotal role as a power center within the CMC and his ongoing power struggle with Xi Jinping, his absence is highly unusual and raises concerns about his status.

The CCP’s internal power struggles are cutthroat, characterized by zero-sum games where survival depends on complete dominance over rivals. If overseas rumors are accurate, Zhang Youxia is engaged in a life-or-death battle against Xi Jinping. In such a scenario, media visibility is typically an indicator of political strength or stability. However, Xi Jinping’s recent media prominence has notably increased since the Third Plenum, overshadowing Zhang.

Since October, Xi Jinping has frequently appeared in the media, hosting foreign leaders and attending high-profile events. At the same time, Cai Qi, rumored to have fallen out of favor after the Third Plenum due to the shelving of the article Reformer Xi Jinping, appears to have regained prominence. On November 30, People’s Daily reported Cai Qi attending a Marxist theory research conference, where he emphasized the importance of the "Two Establishments" and "Two Safeguards." On December 2, Xi presided over the fourth Belt and Road construction symposium, where Cai Qi’s participation was highlighted. Similarly, on December 4, Cai attended Xi’s meeting with Cambodian People’s Party Chairman Hun Sen, signaling his apparent resurgence.

Cai Qi’s return to favor could indicate Xi Jinping’s attempt to recover from a "power shock." Meanwhile, the CCP’s November Politburo meeting did not release a communiqué, the first such occurrence since May 2023. This unusual development suggests two possibilities: either the meeting did not occur, or its contents and attendees are too sensitive to disclose. These anomalies indicate an extraordinarily complex and intertwined power struggle at the CCP’s highest levels, making any optimistic reading of the situation premature.

Commentator Cai Shenkun analyzed the situation in his program, stating that while Xi Jinping lacks governance competence and leaves many initiatives unfinished, he excels at power struggles, even surpassing Mao Zedong in ruthlessness. Unlike Mao, who played factions against each other, Xi directly eliminates his targets. According to Cai, no one in the party, including Zhang Youxia, has the courage or capacity to challenge Xi. If such a figure existed, the 20th Party Congress would have been the opportunity to act.

Cai Shenkun's analysis holds considerable merit. Currently, rumors abroad suggest that Zhang Youxia, in a bid for self-preservation, has launched a desperate counterattack, emerging as the leader of the anti-Xi faction. Some even speculate that he might be the "bow-carrying soldier" prophesied to change history. Judging by the successive downfalls and losses of power among Xi Jinping's trusted military allies—such as Zhong Shaojun, Qin Shengxiang, Qin Shutong, and Chen Guoqiang—this interpretation seems plausible. However, given the complexity and brutality of CCP power struggles, as well as the intricacies of the Party's organizational processes and power mechanisms, the situation is likely far more complicated.

The anti-Xi faction currently faces several critical weaknesses:

1. Lack of a Charismatic Leader:
   Zhang Youxia, being a military figure, likely lacks the political acumen to rival Xi Jinping’s mastery of power dynamics. Among the political elders, who could credibly assume leadership of the anti-Xi camp? Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Li Ruihuan, Zeng Qinghong, or Hu Chunhua? Each of these figures has family members implicated in corruption scandals, leaving them vulnerable to Xi’s leverage.

2. Military Control:
   Xi remains the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). Although the chairman responsibility system may have been weakened, it has not been abolished. The CMC’s Discipline Commission should still report directly to Xi, not Zhang Youxia. Even if Zhang Shengmin, head of the Military Discipline Commission, is secretly aligned with Zhang Youxia, any overt actions such as arrests would still require Xi’s approval. Furthermore, Xi has spent the past 12 years cultivating military loyalty, promoting numerous generals who are now part of his vested interest network.

3. Lack of Organizational Structure:
   While discontent with Xi may exist, removing him would require formal organizational processes. To oust Xi at the Fourth Plenum, approval would be needed first from the Politburo Standing Committee, then from the Politburo, and finally from the Central Committee through a formal vote. Even with widespread dissatisfaction, a legitimate pretext, such as health concerns, would be necessary. Additionally, a clear successor must be designated to ensure a smooth transfer of power. The anti-Xi faction faces immense challenges in orchestrating all these steps.

4. Lack of Media Influence:
   The propaganda apparatus remains firmly under Xi’s control, with figures like Cai Qi ensuring his narrative dominance. The anti-Xi faction relies primarily on leaking information to overseas media, but these reports often vary in quality and credibility, making them difficult to verify. While such leaks may impact Xi’s reputation to some extent, they lack the potency to deal significant blows to his authority.

The investigations into Miao Hua and the troubles surrounding Dong Jun are clear signs of the anti-Xi propaganda strategy to attack the mainland from abroad. However, judging by the official language used by Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Wu Qian, it appears that Miao Hua may receive lenient treatment. Miao Hua's investigation is more likely to be a move by Xi Jinping, or perhaps a decision forced upon him. The most compelling evidence lies in the personnel changes on July 9, when He Hongjun, previously a deputy director of the CMC Political Work Department, was promoted to executive deputy director and simultaneously elevated to the rank of general. This move clearly signaled Xi's intention to position He as Miao Hua’s successor and prepare a "backup" candidate for the Political Work Department's leadership. This indicates that Xi had already decided to act against Miao Hua at that time. Notably, this occurred before the Third Plenum, where rumors of public conflict between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping began to circulate.

Why Would Xi Jinping Move Against Miao Hua? Three main theories attempt to explain Xi’s decision: Miao Hua may have developed his own faction, the "Miao Hua clique," which was becoming too powerful. Xi Jinping’s hallmark power strategy is balancing competing forces—using the Fujian faction to counter the Zhejiang faction, or deploying Ding Xuexiang and Wang Xiaohong to check Cai Qi. Similarly, Miao Hua’s growing influence might have triggered Xi’s intervention.

Miao Hua’s loyalty may have been called into question. According to whistleblower Yuan Hongbing, He Hongjun bypassed the chain of command on three occasions starting in November 2023 to report directly to Xi Jinping about Miao Hua’s political disloyalty and alleged corruption (specifically selling military positions). In February 2024, Xi reportedly authorized a secret investigative task force led by Zhang Youxia and executed by He Hongjun to scrutinize Miao Hua.

Miao Hua’s downfall might be tied to allegations from Li Shangfu. Recently, an article by Du Zheng revealed that Li, officially accused of "offering bribes to secure improper benefits," may have implicated Miao Hua. Li’s potential involvement in buying a position from Miao Hua is reminiscent of the notorious former CMC Political Work Department director Zhang Yang, nicknamed "Bag Zhang" for collecting bribes in bags of cash. Miao Hua, under Xi’s protection, was similarly accused of selling positions and amassing wealth, possibly leading to Li Shangfu’s disclosure of his dealings with him.

Du Zheng also analyzed Wu Qian’s announcement at a routine press conference, stating that "Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department, is suspected of serious violations of discipline. After deliberation by the Party Central Committee, it was decided to suspend Miao Hua for investigation." This indicates that Xi has characterized Miao Hua’s issues as serious but is inclined toward leniency. Within six months, Miao Hua is most likely to be reassigned to a low-profile position, akin to Qin Gang, where he would fade from public view. It is less likely that Miao Hua will face the same harsh punishment as former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, who were expelled from the Party and the military, stripped of their ranks, and transferred to judicial custody. The primary reason for this discrepancy lies in the personal closeness between Xi and Miao, as both are considered part of Xi’s inner circle.

If Li Shangfu implicated Miao Hua, could he have also implicated Zhang Youxia? If so, Zhang would likely have already been forced out or detained by Xi. If not, Zhang appears temporarily safe. To balance Zhang Youxia’s influence, Xi would likely prefer to protect Miao Hua. Notably, the public announcement of Miao Hua’s investigation was prompted by The Financial Times reporting on Dong Jun’s troubles—a development likely orchestrated by anti-Xi factions and unexpected by Xi. This forced the CCP to quietly disclose Miao Hua’s investigation. If the case against Miao Hua aligns with Yuan Hongbing’s revelations, his fate could be grim, potentially mirroring Qin Gang’s rumored secret execution for espionage. In this scenario, Miao Hua would indeed follow Qin Gang’s footsteps.

Regardless of the specifics, the chaos and corruption within the Chinese military have astonished the world. Xi Jinping’s ambitious "new-quality productivity" and "new-quality combat power" initiatives appear destined to end in spectacular failure. 

(Originally published by People News)