BEIJING, CHINA - MARCH 7: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks during a press conference for domestic and foreign journalists as part of the National People&9;s Congress and Two Sessions on March 7, 2024 in Beijing, China. China&9;s annual political gathering known as the Two Sessions convenes leaders and lawmakers to set the government&9;s agenda for domestic economic and social development for the year. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
People News – Following the Third Plenum, rumors that Xi Jinping's power has been diminished are spreading across the internet, with the most explosive being claims that his control over the military has been handed over to Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), Zhang Youxia.
Recent evidence further suggests that Xi's hold on power, particularly over the military, is unstable, with indications that military authority may now reside with Zhang Youxia, the CMC's First Vice Chairman.
On October 23, state media outlets Xinhua and People’s Daily reported that a combined military training conference took place from October 20-22 in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province. Zhang Youxia attended and delivered a speech. On October 22, the CCP’s Military News also reported on the event.
Strikingly, Xi Jinping did not attend the conference. Although he was in Russia attending a BRICS meeting on October 22, the military training session began on October 20, and Xi did not participate or give any online remarks. The state media only noted, "With Xi Jinping's approval, the combined military training conference was held from October 20-22 in Zhangjiakou." In other words, Xi merely followed procedural formalities by approving the event without any active involvement. Given Xi's emphasis on military loyalty to the Party, his absence from such a significant military event raises questions about whether he still holds actual military control.
The combined training exercise focused on joint operations between various military branches, leveraging modern network information technology. Lin Yingyou, an assistant professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, explained that the training was similar to Taiwan's joint battalion or brigade exercises at Pingtung’s Paolishan base, with comprehensive red-blue army simulations. "This annual drill tests new combat strategies, and if successful, it becomes a template for future military operations."
This joint training session, which significantly enhances the PLA's combat readiness for a potential invasion of Taiwan, holds great strategic importance. The strength of the PLA's joint operations capability could determine the outcome of a war. Xi’s absence from such a crucial military event naturally raises speculation about whether he still controls the military.
Although this exercise may have primarily involved the Army, state media reports indicate that it included leadership from various military branches and agencies, including the PLA’s Joint Command Center, various theater commands, and the People’s Armed Police.
This event was a rare opportunity for the CCP to project military authority across all levels. However, Xi Jinping, who is supposed to be the top commander, was nowhere to be seen. Video footage from the event shows Zhang Youxia addressing the entire military, with no sign of Xi Jinping's close ally, Vice Chairman He Weidong. During Xi's earlier inspections in Fujian and at the Rocket Force headquarters in Anhui, He Weidong was also notably absent.
In Zhang Youxia’s speech at the training conference, Xi Jinping was only mentioned once, when Zhang emphasized the need to "thoroughly study and implement Xi's important instructions on military training." However, Zhang's speech did not mention critical phrases like "the chairman responsibility system," "absolute Party leadership over the military," or "continued political rectification," which are typically part of Xi's rhetoric. The tone of Zhang’s remarks starkly contrasts with Xi’s speeches during his inspection of the Rocket Force in Anhui.
Previously, there were widespread rumors of Xi Jinping losing control over the military. These rumors were supported by evidence such as Xi’s absence from the All-Army Military Theory Work Conference on October 14-15, the downfall of Qin Shengxiang, director of the military reform office and a trusted Xi ally, and the reassignment of Chen Guoqiang, a key figure in the CMC’s disciplinary system. Additionally, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s meeting with Zhang Youxia and Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belooussov’s visit to Zhang on October 15—without meeting Xi Jinping—fueled further speculation.
On October 19, Xinhua and other state media prominently reported Xi's inspection of the Rocket Force’s 611th Brigade in Huangshan, Anhui, accompanied by Zhang Youxia. During this visit, Xi emphasized the need for military loyalty to the Party and political training, underscoring his continued hold on military power.
However, analysts note that unlike previous occasions, state media reports did not feature close-up shots of Xi or isolated images showcasing his dominance. Instead, the images included Xi alongside Zhang Youxia and other military officials, suggesting a deliberate effort to create an image of unity between Xi and Zhang. Some interpret this as an attempt to project stability, even though it may be a façade covering deeper power struggles.
Moreover, former CCP Standing Committee member and Vice President Wang Qishan recently made a rare gesture of goodwill toward Zhang Youxia, a move with significant implications.
Notably, Caixin, a media outlet led by one of China’s most influential women, Hu Shuli, published a headline during Xi’s inspection of the Rocket Force that diverged from other state media. While most headlines focused solely on Xi, Caixin’s title was "Xi Jinping Inspects Rocket Force Brigade, Zhang Youxia Attends." By placing Xi and Zhang side by side, the headline hinted at a shifting power dynamic.
It is well known that Hu Shuli has close ties to Wang Qishan. Rumors have circulated that Wang's political fortunes have declined, particularly after his close allies, such as former China Merchants Bank President Tian Huiyu, were taken down by Xi. Additionally, Wang’s public demeanor at the National Day reception this year appeared somber, and there were reports from Hong Kong’s Tong News that Wang was placed under house arrest in Beijing on October 7.
Wang Qishan played a critical role in Xi's first term, particularly in Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, which helped Xi consolidate power. However, Wang was sidelined after helping Xi secure a second term, only given the largely symbolic position of Vice President.
Recent reports suggest that Wang’s ally, Ren Zhiqiang, may soon be released for medical treatment abroad, a potential sign of Xi’s waning power.
With Caixin subtly challenging Xi’s authority, three possibilities arise: First, Hu Shuli and Wang Qishan may sense Xi’s declining influence post-Plenum. Second, Zhang Youxia may already be controlling the military. Third, Caixin’s favorable treatment of Zhang may signal Wang Qishan’s attempt to align with Zhang, seeking to leverage his power to mitigate his precarious position. △
(First published by People News)
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