On September 30, 2024, retired and current members of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee attended the National Day reception.(Screenshot from video)
October 23, 2024 - Recently, several unusual occurrences have emerged among the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership. Notably, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), has seen an unusually high level of public exposure, standing in sharp contrast to his counterpart, Vice Chairman He Weidong. Some experts, observing multiple clues, suggest that Xi Jinping’s control over the military may have been weakened, indicating a potential "soft military coup" in Zhongnanhai.
According to reports by the CCP’s Xinhua News Agency, a military training conference was held from October 20 to 22 in Zhangjiakou, Hebei province. CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia attended, observed the exercises, and delivered a speech.
Although the report stated that the meeting had been approved by Xi Jinping, Zhang Youxia’s frequent and conspicuous public appearances in recent times have attracted significant attention.
A review of the CCP’s Ministry of Defense website shows that since his participation in the CMC’s political work conference in June, Vice Chairman He Weidong has appeared in the public eye only a few times. These include a speech on September 2 at the opening of a seminar for senior military officers and a meeting on September 13 with high-ranking officials from Myanmar, South Africa, and Pakistan during the Beijing Xiangshan Forum.
In contrast, Zhang Youxia has made over ten public appearances since June, including high-profile meetings such as his rare encounter with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, a meeting with the Russian Defense Minister, and presenting awards to astronauts.
Additionally, some events involving Zhang Youxia have not been listed on the Ministry of Defense’s website. For example, on October 17, Xi Jinping inspected a strategic missile unit of the Rocket Force in Anhui province, with Zhang accompanying him. Notably, a report by Caixin placed both Xi and Zhang’s names in the headline, a move interpreted as a sensitive signal.
The Caixin report was titled, "Xi Jinping Inspects a Rocket Force Brigade, Zhang Youxia Attends the Activity." The inclusion of both Xi and Zhang in the headline was unusual and has since been removed from Caixin's website.
Political commentator Zhou Xiaohui pointed out that in other official media reports, headlines typically feature only Xi Jinping’s name, with Zhang Youxia's name appearing much later in the article. Caixin’s decision to put both names in the headline is highly unusual, highlighting Zhang’s significant standing in the military.
Zhou believes this situation can only have one explanation: Zhang Youxia is the true power holder in the military, and many within the CCP are already aware of this. Otherwise, placing Zhang on an equal footing with Xi would be considered overstepping, with severe consequences not just for Zhang, but also for the Caixin editor responsible for the report.
Caixin Media is led by Hu Shuli, who has ties to the CCP’s "second generation red elite." Over the past decade, Caixin has used its connections to break taboos and report on sensitive topics.
On October 15, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), met with Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov during his visit to Beijing. Xi Jinping, however, did not meet with Belousov, as he was on an inspection tour in Fujian at the time. This contrasts with October 2018, when Xi personally met with then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during his visit to China.
Chen Pokong, a U.S.-based political analyst, recently commented on his independent media program that Belousov, who transitioned from Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister to Defense Minister, holds a higher rank than his predecessor Shoigu. However, Xi’s decision not to meet with Belousov reflects Xi’s gradual retreat from military affairs. According to Chen, actual control of the Chinese military has shifted away from Xi and is now in the hands of Zhang Youxia and his faction.
Former Chinese Navy Command Staff Colonel Yao Cheng, in an interview with Epoch Times, supported this view, stating that within the CMC, Xi is no longer allowed to voice his opinions, a reality that has become evident. Yao added that Xi has essentially been sidelined from military affairs within the CMC.
Zhang Youxia, now over 70 years old, has long been considered a close ally of Xi Jinping, particularly due to his status as part of the "princelings" (offspring of senior officials). His retention in the CMC during the 20th Party Congress was initially seen as Xi’s way to stabilize the military. However, Xi also appointed He Weidong, a member of the "Fujian faction," as the other Vice Chairman of the CMC to act as a watchdog. Since last year, Xi has carried out a purge of the military's equipment system, leading to the downfall of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and other senior officers, which many believe may have affected Zhang Youxia, signaling a deterioration in the relationship between Xi and Zhang.
On October 22, international affairs commentator Tang Hao, speaking on his program Crossroads of the World, stated that there have been strange developments in Zhongnanhai, suggesting multiple clues that Xi Jinping has likely been stripped of his military power by party elders, in conjunction with Zhang Youxia.
Tang Hao further pointed out that Xi recently visited the historical site of the "Six-Foot Alley" in Anhui, which is associated with the saying, "Why not yield three feet?" When Xi remarked during his visit that he was "deeply moved," Tang speculated that this might be a subtle hint that Xi has realized he should have ceded power earlier in the ongoing internal power struggle within the CCP.
Tang concluded that regardless of Xi’s personal reflections, it is clear that his military power has likely been stripped away. In other words, a "soft military coup" has already occurred in Zhongnanhai.
Editor: Sun Yun
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