In recent airstrikes, Israel successfully targeted Hezbollah positions, including high-profile assassinations and the destruction of Hezbollah’s weapons depots. These precise strikes marked a significant victory for Israel, showcasing the modern airstrike tactics first pioneered by the U.S. military. Russia has failed to display such precision airstrike capabilities in Ukraine, and currently, China’s air force lacks the capacity to carry out such operations.

Initial Results of Precision Airstrikes

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in sporadic conflict for over a year. Following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah began launching rockets at Israel. To avoid fighting on two fronts simultaneously, Israel initially limited its response. However, the conflict escalated in late August and early September, with Israel, after crippling Hamas, shifting its primary focus to Hezbollah.

On August 25, Israel detected Hezbollah’s deployment of thousands of rocket launchers in more than 40 launch areas, which led to approximately 230 rocket launches at Israel. Israel quickly responded by deploying around 100 fighter jets to precisely destroy Hezbollah’s rocket launcher positions in southern Lebanon. Israel is determined to prevent a repeat of Hamas-style attacks, and war with Hezbollah now seems imminent.

On September 17, Israel launched "Operation Buzzer," in which thousands of Hezbollah operatives’ pagers simultaneously exploded, followed by the detonation of their radios, causing dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries. This operation not only yielded immediate results but also had far-reaching effects.

Hezbollah was forced to halt wireless and wired communications, resorting to traditional face-to-face meetings. Israel exploited this vulnerability, conducting a series of precision airstrikes that eliminated Hezbollah leaders at every level while simultaneously destroying Hezbollah’s weapons caches.

On September 21, the Israeli Defense Forces announced they had conducted 400 airstrikes, effectively dismantling Hezbollah's military command system and destroying thousands of rocket launchers. By September 23, Lebanon’s Ministry of Health reported that Israel had carried out over 1,600 airstrikes, while Hezbollah had launched about 240 rockets toward Israel, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.

Hezbollah continues to sporadically launch rockets at Israel but lacks the capacity to organize a large-scale attack. Its command system is severely compromised, and its long-range weaponry has suffered substantial losses. These operations are noteworthy for military strategists worldwide. In the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. and its allies are likely preparing similar preemptive plans to prevent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from unleashing its missile arsenal.

On October 1, Israeli ground forces officially entered Lebanon. By October 5, Israel announced that its ground operations had killed at least 440 Hezbollah soldiers and destroyed most of Hezbollah’s border weapons caches and tunnels.

Faced with these severe setbacks, most of Hezbollah’s forces have retreated or fled, rendering them incapable of conducting effective ground operations for the time being. Israel’s airstrikes have achieved their intended objectives.

Post-Iraq War Era of Large-Scale Precision Airstrikes

The U.S. military was the pioneer in precision airstrike tactics, introducing air-launched missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles from warships and submarines. These missiles became essential for targeting high-value assets, such as enemy radar and air defense systems, where their precision was indispensable. However, due to their high cost, missiles were often reserved for specific strategic targets.

During the Gulf War, while missiles played a critical role, the U.S. military still relied heavily on conventional air-dropped bombs for many tactical targets. For underground targets, large bunker-buster bombs carried by aircraft were often more effective than missiles. To enhance the accuracy of such bombs, the U.S. developed the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), a precision-guided bomb kit. JDAMs were used extensively in the Iraq War and Kosovo War, marking a shift from traditional carpet bombing to precision-guided strikes. These precision airstrikes allowed the U.S. military to achieve tactical objectives with lower costs, utilizing fighter jets equipped with precision-guided bombs to complete a wide range of ground attack missions swiftly. In the War on Terror, smaller-scale precision strikes also proved to be vital.

While precision airstrikes have become a benchmark for modern air forces globally, only Israel has consistently applied this tactic on a large scale in real-world conflicts over the past two decades. Israel has frequently conducted precision airstrikes against Hamas, deploying some short-range air-to-ground missiles, but more often relying on low-cost precision-guided bombs. The U.S. has provided Israel with at least 3,000 precision-guided bombs.

The U.S. military has accumulated a stockpile of at least 550,000 JDAM kits. Initially, these kits cost around $40,000 each, but the price dropped to as low as $18,000 through mass production. The latest upgraded versions cost approximately $30,000 each. In contrast, the unit cost of a Tomahawk cruise missile is about $2 million, with an export price closer to $4 million. The cost-effectiveness of precision-guided bombs is clear, and the U.S. plans to use them in potential scenarios to quickly disable China’s naval fleet.

Israel's air force has honed its precision airstrike tactics through over a year of conflict with Hamas. Although Hezbollah has a small number of air defense weapons, Israel was able to neutralize them swiftly. Without the need for ground-to-ground missiles, Israel relied solely on precision airstrikes to achieve decisive victories.

Israel's Air Force: Ranked 6th in the World with U.S. Support

According to the Global Air Powers Ranking, the air forces of the U.S., Russia, India, China, and Japan rank higher than Israel. The United States dominates the list, with its Air Force, Navy, Army, and Marine Corps occupying the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th positions, respectively. Russia ranks 3rd, India's Air Force ranks 6th, China’s ranks 7th, and Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force ranks 8th, followed by Israel at 9th. However, if the U.S. military branches were not split into separate categories, Israel would be the 6th largest air force in the world. France, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Italy, and Australia follow Israel in the rankings.

Though Israel has fewer fighter jets than Russia, India, China, and Japan, its demonstrated airstrike capabilities in combat are second only to the U.S. For instance, during the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian air forces carried out numerous missions but hesitated to enter airspace controlled by Ukraine. Russian jets launched some air-to-ground missiles but predominantly dropped bombs from several kilometers away with low accuracy. To compensate for this lack of precision, Russia resorted to increasing the bomb payload to maximize damage.

Russia’s main air force assets include 110 Su-30 and Su-35 multi-role fighters, and 127 Su-34 attack aircraft—key players in the Ukraine conflict. Other aircraft, such as the 101 Su-27s, 85 Mig-29s, and 90 Mig-31s, along with the newer Su-57 and Mig-35 jets, have been less visible in the conflict. Russia also has 273 Su-24 attack aircraft, which have seen limited use, and its Tu-22, Tu-95, and Tu-160 bombers have only launched air-to-ground missiles from within Russian territory.

Despite its large fleet, the Russian air force has failed to demonstrate modern airstrike capabilities. Russian planes were frequently shot down by Ukrainian air defenses early in the conflict, and they never managed to neutralize Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. Continued deliveries of air defense systems from the U.S. and NATO have further prevented Russia from gaining air superiority.

India’s air force has 242 Su-30 jets, 66 Mig-29s, 45 Mirage-2000s, and is receiving Rafale fighters. India also operates 130 Jaguars, which were involved in conflicts with Pakistan. However, India has not yet showcased its capacity for large-scale precision airstrikes.

Japan’s air force has 155 F-15s, which are primarily air superiority fighters. Its 62 F-2s are equipped with anti-ship missiles for maritime defense, and the newly acquired F-35s have ground-attack capabilities, though further training is needed to fully develop this potential.

Israel, meanwhile, ranks 2nd globally—behind only the U.S.—in large-scale airstrike capabilities demonstrated in actual combat. Israel operates 58 F-15s, 175 F-16s, and 39 F-35s, all supplied by the U.S. Its precision airstrike tactics, as well as the weapons systems used, are heavily influenced by American technology and military training. The Israeli air force's combat experience, particularly with the F-35, now surpasses that of most other air forces, including many American pilots.

This deep integration with U.S. military technology and training has allowed Israel to excel in modern warfare, particularly in precision airstrikes, making its air force one of the most capable in the world.

The Embarrassment of the Chinese Air Force

Japan's defense white paper reveals the current operational fleet of the Chinese Air Force, which includes 200 J-20 stealth fighters, 262 J-16 fighters, 97 Su-30s, and 24 Su-35s. Additionally, China has 588 J-10 fighters, 327 Su-27/J-11s, and 60 carrier-based J-15 jets.

While China’s fighter fleet is large, it lacks specialized attack aircraft like Russia’s Su-34. The outdated JH-7 serves as China's ground-attack aircraft, while the J-11 is primarily an air superiority fighter with limited ground-attack capabilities. As a result, the J-16, Su-30, and Su-35 must carry the burden of both air combat and airstrike roles. Although the J-10 theoretically has ground-attack capabilities, it is unlikely to venture far beyond Chinese territorial waters.

The J-20, China’s most advanced fighter, has yet to demonstrate airstrike capabilities. Meanwhile, the J-15s, which operate from the Liaoning and Shandong carriers, are mainly used for short-term air defense and are not well-suited for offensive airstrike missions.

China’s airstrike capabilities lag behind even those of the Russian military. Despite Chinese fighter jets often crossing the Taiwan Strait median line, in the event of an actual conflict, they would likely struggle to approach Taiwan due to the island’s air defense systems, making airstrike missions challenging. China's fleet of 100 H-6 bombers, while capable of carrying anti-ship missiles, lacks the capacity to carry large payloads of aerial bombs. These bombers would be vulnerable if they attempted to attack U.S. naval vessels or target Taiwan from the east without adequate fighter escort.

Chinese pilots refer to ground-attack exercises as "target practice," often simulating attacks using rocket pods, with few reports of precision-guided bomb training. China's air-to-ground missiles are largely copied from Russian designs, but the Chinese have not mastered Russia's latest missile technology. Chinese long-range air-to-surface and air-to-ship missiles are bulky and heavy, typically carried by H-6 bombers. Although these bombers are theoretically capable of carrying six missiles, they often only carry two during training exercises.

Recognizing its limitations in airstrike capabilities, China appears to be relying heavily on ground-based ballistic missile systems for long-range attacks. However, examples like Iran’s two large-scale missile attacks on Israel in 2023, which saw most missiles intercepted, suggest that China’s Dongfeng missiles (DF-15, DF-16) might face similar challenges. Taiwan, the U.S., and its allies would not sit idly by and could strike back at Chinese missile bases, which would quickly neutralize China’s missile advantage. To compensate for its limited long-range precision capabilities, China has also developed long-range rocket systems, though these lack the accuracy needed for precision strikes.

China likely understands the formidable precision airstrike capabilities of Israel, which reflect the even greater capabilities of the U.S. military. Chinese military installations, ships, ports, airports, and ammunition depots could all become targets for precision airstrikes at any time. The Chinese leadership is likely most fearful of potential decapitation strikes, which could target high-ranking officials.

In the event of conflict, U.S. stealth aircraft and special forces could quickly take preemptive action. From the Chinese Communist Party’s military and political leadership in Beijing down to the commanders of individual military units and provincial officials, all could become targets for U.S. forces. In such a scenario, few Chinese officials would be willing to fill these positions, and the Communist regime could rapidly collapse.

First published by Dajiyuan

Responsible Editor: Gao Yi