CPC 21st Congress Standing Committee Forecast

Dark clouds loom over Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. (Feng Li/Getty Images)

[People News] In the Year of the Horse, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has been unrelenting in its anti-corruption campaign, with General Secretary Xi Jinping continuously taking decisive action against corrupt officials. The recent downfall of Ma Xingrui has affected the personnel arrangements for the CPC's 21st National Congress scheduled for next year. An insider familiar with the CPC, Yao Qinxue (pseudonym), noted that following the official announcement of the Ma Xingrui case, the internal dynamics within the CPC have rapidly cooled. He remarked, "The current political environment feels like walking on thin ice. Not only have social gatherings vanished, but even retired officials have ceased communication; everyone is closely watching the developments of this 'political storm.'"

This atmosphere of tension is also reflected on social media. Yao Qinxue pointed out that the WeChat groups among officials have become eerily quiet, with almost no one speaking up except to share official notices from Xinhua News Agency or the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. "In the current political climate, any unnecessary interpretation could be viewed as a 'wrong stance,' and silence has become the last line of defence for officials."

Scholar He Bin (pseudonym) stressed, "The Ma Xingrui case signifies that the highest levels of leadership are now deeply engaged in addressing 'political hidden dangers'; any attempts to establish personal authority outside the power centre will face severe backlash from the system."

Analysts believe that this wave of anti-corruption efforts is likely to continue until the end of this year. Under Xi, the CPC is maintaining strict internal control while simultaneously engaging in dual diplomacy on the international stage, reflecting a Cultural Revolution-style political approach. This suggests that the high-level arrangements prior to the 21st National Congress of the CPC will become increasingly unstable; the 'strongman mentality' is indeed becoming outdated. However, the CPC seems to be digging its own grave in the end.

One year prior to the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), a nomination group for the Central Committee and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection will be formed. In the first half of 2027, provincial party committees and provincial governments will begin their re-election processes, which will require assessments to be completed beforehand. Thus, the inspections scheduled for the end of this year will align perfectly with the personnel preparations for the 21st National Congress.

Zhang Zhizhong, a professor at the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Kainan University, expressed in an interview with the Central News Agency that the current wave of anti-corruption efforts is expected to reach a pause before the 21st National Congress.

Zhang noted, "At this moment, the 21st National Congress will be notably affected by the recent corruption issues within the military-industrial sector." He anticipates that the theme of the upcoming Fifth Plenary Session this autumn will revolve around two main areas: party building and culture, which will include discussions on ideology and anti-corruption. "The overall landscape of corruption from 2023 to the present should be addressed at the Fifth Plenary Session."

Ma Xingrui is unlikely to be the last vice-state-level official to be implicated; he will certainly involve more individuals. A significant reshuffle is expected within the Politburo, raising questions about who will ascend and who will descend among the Standing Committee of the Politburo at the 21st National Congress.

Mr Cai Shenkun, known for frequently revealing internal CPC matters, recently predicted on the X platform and his self-media program that the Standing Committee of the Politburo at the 21st National Congress will largely feature familiar faces. Several of Xi Jinping's secretaries are expected to retain their positions, with Li Qiang likely to be re-elected as Premier, Ding Xuexiang transitioning to the Chairman of the National People's Congress, and Cai Qi moving to the role of Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

He speculates that it is currently uncertain whether Cai Qi will assume the role of Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). If he becomes the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), Cai Qi will certainly serve another term. Should only Li Qiang, Ding Xuexiang, and Cai Qi remain as the three veteran members of the Standing Committee, it is highly likely that Zhang Guoqing and Liu Guozhong will be newly appointed to the Standing Committee, with Zhang Guoqing taking over as Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and Liu Guozhong becoming the Executive Vice Premier of the State Council. Furthermore, Beijing Municipal Party Secretary Yin Li may take over Cai Qi's position, while Minister of Propaganda Li Shulei could step in as CPPCC Chairman. However, if Cai Qi does not resign, Yin Li and Li Shulei will have to compete for the remaining vacancy on the Standing Committee.

Cai Shenkun predicts that the previously favoured candidate for the Standing Committee, Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Chen Jining, is essentially out of the running. As the Tsinghua faction, which was carefully cultivated by Chen Xi, becomes marginalised, the likelihood of Chen Jining, who has a distinct factional background, entering the Standing Committee diminishes. Additionally, the former successor Chen Min'er also appears unlikely to join the Standing Committee and may follow in the footsteps of Li Hongzhong, serving as Vice Chairman of the NPC while being a member of the Politburo.

Of course, all these speculations are based on the assumption that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will still be in existence until the 21st National Congress. The world is constantly changing; Maduro did not anticipate becoming a prisoner overnight, and Khamenei did not foresee that he would truly meet the Almighty. What changes will occur from 2026 to 2027, and what will be the fate of those in Zhongnanhai? They always think about the enduring stability of the red regime, but who can guarantee that?

(People News first published)
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