The Two Sessions Signal Major Changes in Personnel Layout Ahead of the 21st National Congress

Dark clouds hang over Tiananmen Square in Beijing. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News] The 2026 Beijing "Two Sessions" are nearing their conclusion, and many people perceive them merely as a legal formality involving meetings and report readings. However, the most intriguing aspects of Chinese politics often lie in the details of "who is present" and "who is absent." This year is particularly pivotal, with less than two years remaining until the 21st National Congress in 2027. The seating arrangement in the conference hall serves as a rehearsal for the future power dynamics.

The Two Sessions have unveiled several significant signals regarding which local officials are preparing to "enter the fray." First, let’s examine the local officials who are currently gaining prominence.

This year’s list of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress reveals an interesting detail: while the total number has decreased by 9, there are 5 new faces. Notably, three regional leaders stand out: Chen Xiaojiang from Xinjiang, Wang Weizhong from Inner Mongolia, and Xu Kunlin from Liaoning.

Why is this considered a significant signal? According to an analysis by the BBC, there is a mysterious "two-year rule" at play here.

For instance, the prominent figures who joined the Politburo in 2022, such as Yin Li and Zhang Guoqing, were all in the position of provincial party secretary exactly two years prior to the party congress. Consequently, the calls for these three officials to "enter the fray" are quite strong. Particularly, Chen Xiaojiang, who is set to take over as the secretary of Xinjiang, is seen as a potential candidate for a "Politburo member" position; meanwhile, Wang Weizhong faces a unique situation as both his predecessor, Sun Shaocheng, and chairwoman Wang Lixia have been ousted. If he can maintain stability, his future prospects are boundless.

Additionally, there is a 'political star' in the mix: Liu Xiaotao, the Governor of Jiangsu Province. He is one of the rare 'post-70s' provincial governors. This year, he made a special visit to the Jiangsu delegation, which clearly signals that he is being groomed as a 'reserve cadre'.

While local officials are busy 'lining up to get on the bus', the military seems to be 'collectively getting off the bus'.

Last year, five individuals occupied the rostrum of the PLA delegation, but this year, only Xi Jinping and the newly appointed Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, Zhang Shengmin, are seated across from each other, creating a notably sparse atmosphere.

Why is this the case? The military's anti-corruption campaign has been exceptionally rigorous. The three original members of the Military Commission—Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, and Liu Zhenli—have all faced issues, leaving the delegation unable to elect even a 'deputy leader'. The statistics are even more alarming: in just one year, 38 representatives from the PLA have vanished. Just before the Two Sessions, nine military leaders were dismissed in one fell swoop, five of whom were generals.

Are 'generals' now nearly extinct at the venue? Last year, over 40 generals gathered together, but this year, only four active ones remain when counted.

At this point, you might wonder: with so many vacancies, why not quickly promote newcomers to fill them?

According to an analysis by the Asia Society, Xi may be intentionally reserving these promotion opportunities for the 21st National Congress in 2027, as he wants to clearly identify who is absolutely loyal. Furthermore, he aims to dismantle those 'old networks of relationships', leaving everyone uncertain about who will ascend to power.

As Stanford expert Wu Guoguang stated, "The previous political rules have now become ineffective because Xi Jinping has abolished term limits, making personnel arrangements even more unpredictable than before." 

However, some believe that following Zhang Youxia's incident, there has been significant turmoil within the military, and the leadership has yet to stabilise the military's morale. At a recent meeting with the delegation of the People's Liberation Army and the Armed Police Force, he emphasised, "There must be no disloyal individuals in the military," effectively acknowledging that many within the military are not loyal to him. Thus, the personnel arrangements within the military may still be uncertain! 

Therefore, while the two sessions in 2026 may seem calm on the surface, there are actually turbulent undercurrents at play. Who will ultimately secure their position? Who will be eliminated? The ability of the leadership to maintain power through the 21st National Congress remains highly uncertain. 

(First published by the People News) 
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