Iran s Political-Military Split: The Nation Faces the Yan an Big Oven Dilemma

Middle East tensions and conflict (Made by ChatGPT)

[People News] On April 1, at 9 PM Eastern Time, Trump delivered a nationwide televised address, beginning with praise for the U.S. military's 'rapid, decisive, and overwhelming victories on the battlefield.' He asserted that the United States is very close to concluding this war and is swiftly achieving all military objectives as planned. He stated, 'In the next two to three weeks, we will launch an extremely heavy strike against them, sending them back to the Stone Age where they belong.'  

He noted that the U.S. military has recorded several successes in the 'Epic Fury Operation,' claiming, 'In the history of warfare, no enemy has suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in just a few weeks.' The Epic Fury Operation is deemed necessary for 'the security of America and the stability of the free world.'  

Following Trump's speech, the Iranian military vowed to carry out a 'devastating' attack against the United States and Israel.  

But can the Iranian military follow through on this threat?

The media outlet 'Iran International', made up of Iranian dissidents abroad, reported on March 29 that a significant rift has developed between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who represents the elected civilian government, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The president is opposed to escalating the situation and attacking neighbouring countries, warning that continued warfare could lead to devastating consequences for Iran's civilian economy in the near future. In contrast, the IRGC has disregarded the president's warnings and has independently chosen to launch attacks on several neighbouring countries, further escalating tensions and expanding the conflict.

Sources informed 'Iran International' that President Pezeshkian has criticised the IRGC for heightening tensions and persisting in attacks on neighbouring nations. He stressed that without a ceasefire, Iran's economy could face total collapse within three weeks to a month.

This indicates that the Iranian government is running out of funds, with the treasury only able to sustain expenditures for less than a month. As the war enters its fifth week, the impact on the Iranian economy is becoming increasingly apparent.

'Iran International' reported that many ATMs in major Iranian cities are out of cash, with numerous machines ceasing operations or becoming unusable. Additionally, online banking services from several major banks, including Bank Melli, are frequently disrupted.

Prior to the outbreak of war, Iran's civilian economy was already struggling, and the large-scale nationwide protests that erupted at the end of last year were triggered by the sharp devaluation of the currency and soaring prices.

In this context, Taiwanese financial influencer Hu Caiping remarked that if the Iranian government were to shut down, it would gradually descend into a complete halt of transportation, water, electricity, and public services, resulting in a nationwide economic freeze. The Revolutionary Guard has already been pushed into the Yan'an cave, and soon, all of Iran will resemble a vast Yan'an cave.

Hu Caiping expressed scepticism towards Trump's calls for troop withdrawal and an end to the war, stating that she would only believe it when U.S. troops actually leave. She argues that Trump's actions are focused on dismantling the Iranian theocratic regime.△