The Strait of Hormuz Choked by Shipping Delays, “Flag-Passage Theory” Questioned

The Strait of Hormuz (Google/People News)

[People News] As fighting in the Middle East escalates, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important waterways, has nearly come to a standstill. Iranian authorities had previously stated that the strait would be closed only to ships from the United States, Israel, Europe, and their Western allies. However, most vessels have remained cautious about this vital shipping route, and only a very small number of ships have managed to pass through in recent days.

According to Radio Free Asia, the Iranian military had not explicitly stated in its announcement that “only Chinese ships are allowed through.” But on Chinese social media platforms, some “little pinks” and so-called patriotic netizens have claimed that as long as a vessel flies the Chinese Communist Party’s national flag, it can avoid attack and pass through the strait safely.

The Chinese Communist Party media outlet Guancha reported that in the early morning of March 5, a bulk carrier named Iron Maiden, while transiting the strait, changed its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal from “awaiting instructions” to “CHINA OWNER,” and then sailed along the coast of Oman through the area.

Afterward, websites such as Sina News and China.com also reported that a “Chinese cargo ship safely passed through the strait,” and said that “ships from non-hostile countries are not restricted.” This drew many approving comments from netizens. However, some netizens mocked the claim, saying: “You may not be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but you can pass through on Douyin.”

“Flag escort” claim sparks controversy

On March 8, a video filmed by a Chinese sailor circulated on social media. The footage showed multiple cargo ships anchored at sea. The sailor said: “There are still quite a lot of ships at anchor, still waiting. There has been no notice, so nobody is going through.” He also added: “Some are farther away, so you can’t see them.” One netizen commented, asking “Wolf Warrior” Wu Jing to come provide support.

The video showed the person filming standing near the bow-side bridge area, with several cargo ships anchored on the sea ahead. The footage subsequently drew attention on the Chinese internet, and many netizens regarded it as evidence that Chinese ships do not have any “special privilege” to pass through the strait.

Shandong scholar Ma Gangquan, in an interview with Radio Free Asia, said that whenever Chinese Communist Party official narratives are involved, there is always a group of people who disregard facts and seize the chance to promote so-called patriotism. He said: “A lot of claims are now circulating online, such as Iran having destroyed all U.S. bases in the Middle East or sunk a U.S. aircraft carrier. They sound real, but in fact many of them are completely baseless.”

Ma Gangquan also said that some online influencers exploit the psychology of people who do not distinguish truth from falsehood and only want to hear what they already want to hear, constantly manufacturing emotions in order to harvest traffic. “Whenever China or the international situation is involved, there is especially a lot of this kind of content. It has now almost formed a model that relies specifically on monetizing web traffic.”

Massive tanker backlog in the Strait of Hormuz

According to shipping data agencies, because of Iran’s blockade threat and U.S.-Iran tensions, as of March 9 there were approximately 400 to 700 vessels stranded on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, including more than 300 crude oil tankers and over 100 refined-product tankers. JPMorgan analysis said that at least 411 tankers have now been confirmed stranded, and traffic through the strait has plunged from the previous average of about 138 ships per day to only about 3 to 8 per day.

Mr. Mo, a resident living near Qingdao Port in Shandong, told reporters that many local oil tanker operations had been affected: “After the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, some of our oil tankers here stopped operating, and no one knows when they will resume. A neighbor of mine is a sailor, and his employer has already arranged leave for him recently.”

Mr. Lü, an internet activist, told reporters that Chinese Communist Party state media, as well as opinion on WeChat and Weibo, are clearly tilted toward Iran in their coverage of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

He said: “But many netizens do not have much goodwill toward Iran. In my impression, Iran used to be a relatively wealthy country, but since Khomeini came to power and imposed theocratic rule, ordinary people’s lives have grown worse and worse. Venezuela is similar. It gradually went from being a wealthy country to a poor one.”

Political stance dominates online discussion

Mr. Lü also criticized the fact that when discussing international issues, some netizens do not first judge right from wrong, but first draw conclusions based on political stance. He said: “Many people do not look at facts first; they look at position first. As long as something fits their political stance, they support it unconditionally.”

At present, large numbers of oil tankers are gathered at both ends of the strait. On the Gulf of Oman side, about 150 tankers are anchored near Fujairah and the Omani coast, while inside the Persian Gulf, about 200 ships already loaded with oil or natural gas are waiting near the coasts of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. At the same time, GPS signal interference implemented by Iran in the area has affected the navigation systems of about 1,650 vessels, increasing navigational risk.

In addition, several international shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended related routes. Industry sources say that if tensions continue, the limited onshore oil storage capacity of Middle Eastern oil-producing countries may reach its ceiling in about 22 to 25 days, and stranded tankers may be forced either to turn back or to wait on the high seas.

The Strait of Hormuz is located between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, and is one of the world’s most important energy transportation channels. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that about one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments must pass through this waterway.
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