How Will the U.S. and Israel’s Strike on the Iranian Regime Affect China?

February 28, 2026 — During “Operation Epic Fury,” a U.S. Navy pilot taxis an aircraft to the staging point on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72).

[People News] After the United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28 and killed multiple leaders, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Chinese Communist Party quickly condemned the U.S. and Israeli attacks. However, Beijing has not pledged to provide either military or civilian support to Tehran. What exactly is the relationship between the CCP and Iran, and how will the U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran affect China?

Impact on China’s Oil Lifeline

According to a report by Voice of America, China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and also the main buyer of Iranian oil, which makes China highly vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by conflict in the Middle East. After Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced on Monday (March 2) that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and stated that Iran would open fire on any vessels attempting to pass through the strait, China urged all parties to maintain the security of the waterway. According to reports, about one-third of China’s crude oil supply is transported by tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 3, during a routine press conference of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, when asked to comment on claims that U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran might obstruct China’s oil supply, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said: “China will take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.”

Data released by analytics company Kpler for 2025 show that China purchased more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports. Because U.S. sanctions aim to cut off funding for Tehran’s nuclear program, Iran has limited buyers for its oil.

Kpler’s data show that last year China purchased an average of 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, accounting for about 13.4% of its total seaborne oil imports of 10.27 million barrels per day.

Most of the Chinese buyers of Iranian oil are concentrated among small and medium-sized private refineries in Shandong Province, commonly known as “teapot refineries.” In March, April, and May of 2025, the United States imposed sanctions three times on these “teapot refineries” because they purchased Iranian crude oil worth billions of dollars. In addition, the United States sanctioned multiple companies and vessels involved in helping Iran transport oil to China.

Analysis by Chinese state media points out that if war leads to an interruption of Iranian exports, conservative estimates suggest that China’s annual crude oil import costs could increase by nearly 200 billion yuan. Along with rising energy import costs, China may also face broader inflationary pressures.

It is worth noting that before the United States took action against Venezuela and Iran, China had been purchasing discounted oil from those two countries as well as from Russia.

CCP Investment in Iran

Over the past decade, the CCP has steadily expanded its economic influence and diplomatic presence in the Middle East, with Iran becoming one of its most important partners. In addition to being China’s third-largest supplier of crude oil, Iran is also a key node in the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East.

In 2021, the CCP and Iran signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement, reportedly including a Chinese commitment to invest $400 billion. At present, China has invested more than $100 billion in Iran’s energy and infrastructure projects, which may now stall due to war or sanctions.

Chinese technology companies Huawei and ZTE have participated in building key components of Iran’s telecommunications infrastructure. In 2010, ZTE signed a $130 million contract to deploy surveillance systems on Iran’s state-controlled telephone and internet networks. Around the same time, Huawei became Iran’s largest telecommunications equipment supplier, providing location-tracking services for mobile operators and marketing content-censorship tools to Iranian officials. Both ZTE and Huawei have also been sanctioned by the United States because of their ties with Iran.

Since then, cooperation between the two sides has expanded further, including AI facial-recognition cameras from Chinese companies such as Tiandy and Hikvision, deep packet inspection tools, and centralized traffic management systems. Iran’s National Information Network (NIN), a state-controlled domestic intranet modeled on China’s “Great Firewall,” was built with technical assistance from the CCP.

On February 9, the international free-speech advocacy organization Article 19 released a report stating that through cooperation with China, the Iranian government has gained unprecedented control over Iran’s communications infrastructure. The practical consequences of this technological integration became evident during the Iranian regime’s massacre of protesters challenging its rule in January 2026. In order to prevent images of the killings from spreading abroad, the regime almost completely shut down the internet, relying on infrastructure that Chinese companies had helped build over many years. The surveillance technologies used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to track, identify, and suppress dissidents were provided by companies that offer similar services to the Chinese Communist Party in Xinjiang.

In addition, because Iran has been excluded from the Western-dominated SWIFT international payment system, Iranian oil exports have even begun to be settled in renminbi since April 2025. Oil purchased by China is largely transported through a “shadow fleet” of disguised vessels and paid for through financial networks that bypass traditional banking systems. If the United States escalates “secondary sanctions” against the renminbi settlement system used in China-Iran trade, China’s push for the internationalization of the renminbi could also be affected.

Political Ties Between Iran and the CCP

On February 28, after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, John Moolenaar, chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, issued a statement saying that “Iran has been supported by China.”

“Iran is led by a terrorist regime that threatens U.S. national security interests with the indulgence of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party,” Moolenaar said in the statement.

In fact, Iran has become a member of major international organizations aligned against the United States and the Western bloc that are led or influenced by the CCP. In 2023, Iran became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia; in 2024, Iran also joined “BRICS+,” another grouping led by China and Russia. Because the interests of Iran, the CCP, Russia, and North Korea have increasingly aligned, Western politicians and scholars in recent years have referred to these four countries as an “axis of evil.”

However, it is worth noting that after Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the U.S.–Israeli airstrike, the CCP issued a series of statements “strongly condemning” the attack but has shown almost no substantive support for Iran. On March 2, during a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to “attach importance to the reasonable concerns of neighboring countries.”

Analysts believe that for Beijing, the priority is to ensure that while protecting Iran—its closest diplomatic partner in the Middle East—it does not damage its own economic interests or intensify tensions with the United States.

Mockery of Dictators Within China

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei in the U.S.–Israeli strike, as well as Iranian public support for regime change backed by foreign forces, has also stirred sensitive emotions among Chinese citizens.

Since taking power in 2012, CCP leader Xi Jinping has remained in control, and observers widely expect him to begin a fourth term next year. The political system he leads does not tolerate dissent. Under a Chinese state media article reporting Khamenei’s death, some netizens congratulated the Iranian people and openly speculated about who might be next.

According to free-speech advocates, the X account “Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher” reported that on March 1, China Central Television aired news footage showing large numbers of Iranian citizens gathering in Tehran to condemn the U.S. and Israeli attack. However, the comment section “completely backfired.” Some users wrote, “Are you sure they aren’t cheering?” “Many Iranians are celebrating in the streets and have pushed down Khamenei’s statues,” and “They must be incredibly happy.”

So-called experts who had predicted that “the United States would never dare to strike Iran” were also mercilessly mocked by netizens. Chinese-made radar and air defense systems used by Iran were also ridiculed.

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