Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
[People News] The situation in the Middle East is facing its most severe crisis in decades. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has explicitly stated that Iran's refusal to accept several 'red lines' set by President Trump has made diplomatic breakthroughs virtually impossible. Advisors within the Trump administration have openly declared that the chances of military conflict erupting in the coming weeks have surged to 90%. With the U.S. Navy's most advanced aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Ford, expected to arrive in the Eastern Mediterranean as early as this weekend, a military operation leaning towards 'total war' is now in its countdown phase.
U.S. news outlet Axios reported that a Trump advisor disclosed to the media that Trump has become 'intolerant' of Iran's delaying tactics. While some aides express reservations about initiating war, the advisor assessed that the likelihood of military action has skyrocketed to 90%.
Sources also indicated that if conflict breaks out, it will be a large-scale campaign lasting several weeks, significantly larger than last month's operations in Venezuela, resembling a total war aimed at completely neutralising the threat.
From the military deployment, we can predict that the indicators for war have reached 90%, with the possibility of it occurring as soon as this weekend.
The U.S. military is currently deploying air and naval forces to the Middle East on the largest scale since the 2003 Iraq War. Alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln already stationed in the Arabian Sea, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group arrived off the coast of Morocco on Wednesday and is expected to pass through the Strait of Gibraltar into the eastern Mediterranean this weekend, providing air defence and missile protection for Israel and Jordan.
In addition to the aircraft carriers, a significant number of F-35 and F-22 stealth fighters have been deployed to bases in Jordan and Qatar. Moreover, the alert level at U.S. bases in the Middle East has been raised to the highest level, with all leaves cancelled. These developments suggest that the Pentagon has moved operational plans from the 'drawer' to the 'desk.'
Former President Trump issued an ultimatum on the social media platform 'Truth Social,' threatening that if Iran fails to reach an agreement, the U.S. will utilise Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and the UK’s Fairford base to completely eliminate potential attacks from the Iranian regime.
In addition to the increasing pressure from the U.S. military, Israel has also entered a state of high alert. Israeli officials have indicated that the government is preparing for 'war to break out within days' and is leaning towards adopting extreme measures, with the goal of not only destroying Iran's nuclear program and missile bases but also overthrowing the current theocratic regime in Iran.
In response to this intense pressure, the Tehran authorities have not retreated. The Iranian Navy announced on Thursday that it will conduct joint military exercises with Russia in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, seeking to counter U.S. pressure through military alliances. Iranian Navy Commander Irani warned that any attack on Iran would be met with strong resistance.
Iran's most significant leverage for counterattack is its extensive stockpile of ballistic missiles and its capability to blockade the global oil lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are worried that if war breaks out, it will severely disrupt global energy supplies.
What would be the impact on ordinary people if war actually occurs?
The most immediate effects would be seen in gold and oil prices. As observed, international gold prices have skyrocketed over the past two days, surpassing the $5,000 threshold, indicating a flight to safe-haven investments. Crude oil prices have also surged dramatically. If the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is blocked, one-third of the world's maritime oil supply would be cut off. At that point, we would not only face inflation but also a total collapse of the global supply chain.
Right now, the entire world is focused on two critical time points. The first is this weekend, when the USS Ford is expected to arrive. The second is next Tuesday, when Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address. This could potentially serve as the final declaration of war or an ultimatum.
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