Zhang Youxia Arrested, Zhang Shengmin in Danger, Dong Jun’s Situation Grim

The new Defence Minister, Dong Jun, may add new drama to the 46th image (prophecy) of the Tui Bei Tu. (Truth of the People provided the report.)

[People News] As a representative figure among the “Red Second Generation,” Zhang Youxia’s downfall is widely seen as marking a complete break between Xi Jinping and the traditional military power blocs. A series of accusations were made against him in an editorial published by the PLA Daily, including claims that he violated the system of responsibility of the CMC chairman, undermined the political-ideological foundation of the entire army, and damaged the political ecology of the military and its combat effectiveness.

Put plainly, Zhang opposed Xi’s control of the Central Military Commission and objected to the current political condition of the PLA—meaning he was accused of plotting a coup. With the 21st Party Congress approaching, Xi Jinping, in order to ensure his reappointment and absolute control and to prevent Zhang Youxia from dominating personnel arrangements in the next term, had to move against Zhang. However, the hatred reflected in the accusations and the severity of the official characterisation far exceeded outside expectations, giving the impression that Zhang is being set up for a suspended death sentence, leaving him no room for compromise—in other words, no chance of a comeback.

Why Zhang Shengmin Is in Danger

According to CCP institutional experience, a coup requires coordination among key figures in three sectors: the Central Guard Bureau, the Central Military Commission, and a central leader with sufficient authority and prestige to pacify all factions afterwards. It is said that Zhang Youxia’s arrest was directly carried out with the participation of Central Guard Bureau Director Zhou Hongxu and CCDI Deputy Secretary Liu Jinguo. This means Xi no longer needs to worry about the Guard Bureau, but must guard against the CMC. Within the CMC, after Vice Chairman He Weidong was arrested, Zhang Shengmin had not yet been promoted. In practice, Zhang Youxia alone had been performing the functions of all the commission members, monopolising power. How could Xi Jinping feel at ease with that?

Looking at Xi’s past anti-corruption purges, he has never tolerated someone of excessive prestige or concentrated power by his side, even those who once helped him. Wang Qishan, who helped Xi consolidate power and eliminate political enemies, was eventually marginalised. Others, such as Liu Yuan, met similar fates. The CMC, which originally had seven members, now has only two: Xi himself as chairman, and Zhang Shengmin as the sole remaining member. In effect, Zhang Shengmin is now doing what Zhang Youxia previously did—handling all CMC affairs and concentrating power again. By this logic, Xi will sooner or later find this intolerable.

Whose man is Zhang Shengmin? According to public records, in July 2016, he became Political Commissar of the CMC Logistics Support Department. In January 2017, he was appointed Secretary of the CMC Discipline Inspection Commission. In October of that year, he became a member of the 19th Central Committee and Deputy Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and entered the CMC. At the time, the Logistics Support Department was under Zhang Youxia’s authority, indicating that Zhang Shengmin had been Zhang Youxia’s subordinate and was promoted during that period. Whether Zhang Shengmin has political or financial ties to Zhang Youxia is known only to Xi’s inner circle. Independent commentators Zhang Tianliang and Cai Shenkun have both predicted that the purge of Zhang Youxia’s network will continue, and that generals such as Zhang Shengmin may already be on a countdown. Online rumours even claim that Zhang Shengmin has submitted a resignation letter. Now, not only outsiders but people inside the system are asking: if close associates like Zhang Youxia and He Weidong can suddenly be taken away, who is truly safe?

Another figure entering a dangerous period is Defence Minister Dong Jun.

Dong Jun’s Predicament

There have long been rumours that Dong Jun would be dismissed or investigated. In late December last year, self-media outlet “Shanhe Dongfu” and Cai Shenkun—who earlier reported Zhang Youxia’s downfall—claimed to have sources saying Dong Jun, though still holding the rank of full general, had encountered trouble. Whether he would be formally investigated depended on developments, and some even claimed he had been stripped of his rank. Political scholar Liu Junning also said that China’s defence minister would be replaced.

Dong Jun, born in 1961 in Yantai, Shandong, was rapidly promoted during the tenure of Miao Hua as Navy Political Commissar and later as CMC member and Director of the Political Work Department. Dong rose in quick succession to vice chief of staff of the Navy, deputy commander of the Southern Theatre Command, deputy commander of the Navy, commander of the Navy, and finally defence minister. Clearly, he was promoted with the backing of figures such as Miao Hua and He Weidong. Since becoming defence minister, however, he has never been made a State Councillor or a CMC member—highly unusual for someone holding this position—indicating that Xi has never fully trusted him.

Dong Jun’s most recent public appearance was on December 22 at a ceremony conferring the rank of full general. Official footage showed only four generals present: Zhang Youxia, Zhang Shengmin, Liu Zhenli, and Dong Jun. Now two of those four have been arrested. Dong Jun must be deeply alarmed and facing grim prospects. In fact, rumours about Dong Jun’s troubles circulated even before Miao Hua fell. On November 26, 2024, the Financial Times cited current and former U.S. officials as saying that Chinese authorities had launched an investigation into Dong Jun.

In January 2025, CMC member and Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli visited Malaysia and Indonesia. Some observers believe this trip replaced what should have been Dong Jun’s role, suggesting Dong’s movements were restricted. After the Two Sessions ended, on March 14, 2025, Premier Li Qiang chaired a full State Council meeting, which Dong Jun unusually missed. On March 26, the Ministry of National Defence hosted the first 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation military cooperation meeting in Qingdao; Dong Jun, as defence minister, again failed to appear.

Overseas sources say that when Miao Hua was investigated, Dong Jun was indeed taken from the Navy compound for questioning, though he later returned home for unknown reasons. Subsequently, several officers who had dealings with Dong Jun were purged, including Yuan Huazhi, who became Navy political commissar in 2023 alongside Dong Jun as navy commander. Yuan Huazhi was expelled from the Party and the military in 2025. Now, renewed rumours of Dong Jun’s impending trouble suggest his crisis is ongoing and his prospects increasingly bleak. One can imagine he is living in constant anxiety.

A Doomsday Scenario for the CCP

Observers note that Xi personally promoted 79 full generals and CMC members, and now only a handful remain. The CMC is effectively paralysed and has become an international joke. The PLA is in turmoil, with “giant tigers” (high-ranking corrupt officials) constantly emerging—an unmistakable sign of decay in a regime approaching its end.

Of course, this does not mean that corruption crackdowns and internal purges will necessarily lead to the CCP’s collapse. In Xi’s view, anti-corruption campaigns and factional struggles are internal Party matters that can be controlled. Whether to fight corruption, whom to strike, and how far to go are calculated decisions. If these struggles were to threaten the Party’s survival, vested interests would compromise, because they see their personal wealth as tied to the CCP’s fate. “Protecting the Party” remains the consensus. Only if the Party’s survival conflicted directly with their own survival would they choose self-preservation. Thus, they believe that unless domestic upheaval coincides with a foreign war, purges alone pose no existential threat. Popular rebellion is seen as ineffective, and the initiative in foreign war lies with the CCP. Under this logic, more “giant tigers” will fall. Whether Zhang Shengmin or Dong Jun, they likely understand all too well the ruthless nature of the CCP’s meat grinder.

(First published by People News)