The image shows a warning cone in Tiananmen Square. (Feng Li / Getty Images) Dajiyuan
[People News] Last Friday, the Ministry of National Defence of the Communist Party of China announced the expulsion of General He Weidong and eight others from both the Party and military, triggering widespread speculation about potential shifts in Xi Jinping's power at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. At 00:19 Beijing time on October 20, Xinhua unexpectedly published an article that excessively praised Xi Jinping while attempting to cover up the economic failures he has caused in China. This 'midnight shock' manoeuvre by Xinhua actually supports the idea that Xi Jinping's authority is diminishing.
In this lengthy article, which spans several thousand words, Xi Jinping, the General Secretary, is mentioned over 20 times. The piece mainly summarises what it describes as Xi Jinping's 'great achievements' during the 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2021 to 2025. It uses extravagant language to celebrate Xi Jinping's 'new pioneering progress, breakthrough changes, and historic achievements' in economic and social development during this period.
Despite a global consensus recognising that China's economy has been in recession in recent years, and even domestic media frequently raising alarms about the country's economic decline, China is currently experiencing a severe downturn in the real estate sector, persistently high unemployment rates, worsening deflation, weak domestic demand, and a loss of public confidence. Nevertheless, Xinhua's lengthy article portrays this situation as 'a magnificent painting of mountains and rivers, flourishing and prosperous, unfolding over five years of China's economy,' making it a truly shocking read at midnight.
It is widely recognised that to understand the actions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), one must look beyond its rhetoric. The more grandiose their claims, the more disarrayed the reality tends to be. An increase in mentions of Xi Jinping's name suggests that he is under significant pressure and may soon be sidelined.
Starting from September 30, the CCP's official media outlet, People's Daily, published a series of eight articles titled 'Zhong Caiwen' from the Central Economic Commission, aimed at boosting confidence in the Chinese economy. 'Zhong Caiwen' is a phonetic abbreviation for 'Central Economic Commission articles,' and this series is categorised under the column 'Chinese Economic Treatises Guided by Xi Jinping's Economic Thought.'
In an interview with Lianhe Zaobao, Gu Qingyang, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, analysed that the series of commentaries in People's Daily is intended to 'unify thought' ahead of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP. This is particularly important given the differing perspectives on economic development both within China and internationally, as some views may be perceived as harmful to the atmosphere surrounding the Fourth Plenary Session.
Many observers believe that the Chinese economy is currently facing serious challenges related to structural recession. Analysts warn that a disaster even more severe than the Great Depression has yet to materialise.
Political commentator Jiu Tianjian noted that the articles in People's Daily seem to attempt to depict the critically ill state of China as still having hope for recovery. The recent surge in economic discussions from party media is a rare occurrence in recent years.
‘Huihu Shuo Fang’ asserts that real estate is a crucial component of the economic downturn, holding a significant share, yet it is merely one aspect of the broader issue. The economic decline across various sectors is more alarming than the drastic fall in housing prices. By 2025, the Chinese populace will undoubtedly feel the effects of this economic downturn, which has only just begun. ‘It is not yet the time for genuine panic; true terror will come when floods and disasters strike.’
Official announcements reveal that a key agenda item for the Fourth Plenary Session is the review of important economic plans. The party media unexpectedly published this article at midnight; at this sensitive juncture, the focus is on ‘economy,’ but the underlying aim is ‘personnel changes.’
Last Friday, all nine major generals who had been promoted and favoured by Xi Jinping were dismissed simultaneously. Most observers believe this was a coordinated effort between the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission and Communist Party elders, led by Wen Jiabao, to preemptively strike against Xi's faction ahead of the Fourth Plenary Session. Following this explosive news, both CCTV and party media remained unusually quiet, with only the military newspaper issuing an editorial criticising He Weidong, Miao Hua, and others for having ‘collapsed in faith and betrayed their loyalty,’ emphasising that no matter how high their positions, they are not exempt from accountability.
Despite the military's loss of influence, Xi Jinping may not be inclined to step down during the Fourth Plenary Session. It is possible that the forthcoming session will still be, as the party media claims, a ‘successful, united, and bright’ gathering.
According to the latest information from former Navy Colonel staff member Yao Cheng, Xi Jinping is expected to resign as Chairman of the Central Military Commission during the Fourth Plenary Session, with Zhang Youxia set to take over. Hu Chunhua and Liu Zhenli are anticipated to serve as Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission. However, this information has yet to be confirmed. Should Hu Chunhua assume the role of Vice Chairman, he would position himself as the next successor, preparing for the forthcoming power transition. We must also brace ourselves; while Xi Jinping may remain 'motionless' on the podium, the echoes of his power crumbling have been deafening, and the ultimate outcome will likely be a 'hasty scramble'!
(First published by the People News)
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