During the closing ceremony of the Two Sessions, video footage showed that as Xi Jinping was leaving, several Politburo members, including Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) He Weidong, turned around and stood by their seats to watch Xi depart. However, Zhang Youxia remained facing forward, not even glancing back as Xi walked past behind him. (Screenshot from video)
[People News] September at Zhongnanhai is filled with uncertainty. There are rampant rumours that an unprecedented power struggle is taking place within the upper ranks of the Communist Party of China, directly aimed at Xi Jinping.
According to reports from Epoch Times, several commentators have disclosed that the 'final showdown' between Zhang Yousha and Xi Jinping quietly began in September, with Xi Jinping even being placed under soft detention at one point. The question now is: how will this dramatic struggle impact China's future?
Xi Jinping's regressive actions stem from Hu Jintao's influence.
As for why Zhang Yousha, after seizing military power, has not directly ousted Xi Jinping, some analysts suggest that it is not due to Zhang's reluctance or any compromising information he may have on Xi, but rather due to a compromise with Hu Jintao.
For instance, during the September 3 military parade, the commentator 'Ordinary People Inside the Wall' recently mentioned in his YouTube program that it was Hu Jintao who insisted on having Xi Jinping review the troops. He, along with Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan, persuaded Zhang Yousha to accept this decision. Hu Jintao's rationale was to maintain unity within the party; internal conflicts should not be made public, as this could provide hostile forces with an opportunity to exploit.
Under Hu Jintao's insistence, Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan could only advise Zhang Yousha that, since Xi Jinping is still the chairman of the Central Military Commission, not allowing him to review the troops would violate the Communist Party's rules in front of outsiders.
However, Zhang Yousha was quite displeased about allowing Xi Jinping to review the parade. Consequently, he temporarily appointed a retiring lieutenant general to act as the parade commander and ordered all senior Communist Party generals not to attend the September 3 military parade.
The 'ordinary people inside the wall' have pointed out that many of Xi Jinping's regressive actions can be traced back to Hu Jintao's influence. For instance, prior to the 18th National Congress, there was intense infighting within the Communist Party, with Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai, both from the red second generation, vying for the highest power against Li Keqiang and Wang Yang.
Following the Wang Lijun defection incident, under Wen Jiabao's insistence, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin were compelled to remove Bo Xilai. However, when it came to Xi Jinping, both Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong were adamant that he should ascend to power.
Wen Jiabao has consistently believed that Xi Jinping lacks the necessary cultural sophistication. As a product of the Red Guards, Xi has significant issues with his outlook on life, values, and worldview; like Bo Xilai, he is heavily influenced by the ideologies of the Cultural Revolution. Consequently, Wen Jiabao firmly advocated for Li Keqiang to become General Secretary and Wang Yang to become Premier.
Nevertheless, Hu Jintao, fearing a split within the Communist Party, was reluctant to engage in a decisive struggle against Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong. Ultimately, he sacrificed Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, reluctantly agreeing to allow Xi Jinping to take office.
The 'ordinary people inside the wall' noted that Hu Jintao also transferred all of his powers, including the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission, to Xi Jinping in one fell swoop. He also required Li Keqiang and all members of the Youth League faction to fully support Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign following the 18th National Congress. As a result, with the backing of the red second generation and the Youth League faction, Xi Jinping was able to completely dismantle the Jiang faction, which further fueled his personal ambitions. After the 18th National Congress, Xi Jinping gradually consolidated personal power, culminating in constitutional amendments after the 19th National Congress.
Before the 20th National Congress, Hu Jintao still believed that Xi Jinping would uphold his commitments within the party. However, during the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping executed a coup, leading to the complete dismantling of Hu Jintao's faction, the forced retirement of Li Keqiang, the expulsion of Hu Chunhua from the Politburo, and even Hu Jintao himself being publicly escorted out of the venue in a humiliating manner.
'Ordinary people within the wall' have pointed out that Hu Jintao has made repeated mistakes in the past, and now history has granted him one final opportunity to make a choice. They hope that this time, Hu Jintao will not choose incorrectly again. They wish for him to support Wen Jiabao's position between Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua in the personnel arrangements for the Fourth Plenary Session.
Wen Jiabao is a strong supporter of Wang Yang.
According to revelations from 'ordinary people within the wall', Wen Jiabao believes that appointing Wang Yang as General Secretary of the Communist Party is essential for initiating political system reform, which would provide a much-needed respite for China's economy. Conversely, if the conservative Hu Chunhua from the faction were to take over, there would be no hope for political reform within the Communist Party.
Previously, Wen Jiabao had asked Zhang Youxia to yield to Hu Jintao during the September 3 military parade, and now he is urging Hu Jintao to also step aside at the Fourth Plenary Session to give Wang Yang a chance.
'Ordinary people within the wall' was mentioned in a program that, during the September 3 military parade, Wang Yang ascended the Tiananmen Gate, and the current Politburo members in the viewing platform greeted him enthusiastically, as if they were witnessing the new General Secretary. Meanwhile, Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan appeared to be observing the situation with amusement, suggesting that the likelihood of Wang Yang taking over has significantly increased.
Following the September 3 military parade, the most critical event for the Communist Party is the Fourth Plenary Session scheduled for October. This meeting will determine Xi Jinping's fate, and there are currently intense undercurrents and struggles within the Communist Party.
Overseas commentator Wang Youqun has analysed that following the grand military parade on September 3, the military purge continues, with three significant trends emerging that warrant attention.
Firstly, there are rumours that 57-year-old Zhong Shaojun, a member of the 20th Central Committee, has retired from active duty. Secondly, four generals, including armed police commander Wang Chunning, have been dismissed. Thirdly, the military's efforts to "cleanse toxic influences" and "review the past nine years" suggest that the scope and intensity of the military purge are both expanding.
Wang Youqun noted that Xi Jinping has been the chairman of the Central Military Commission for 13 years, with Zhong Shaojun by his side for 11 years, serving as Xi's military "chief steward". With Zhong's complete dismissal, it is Xi Jinping who finds himself in the most awkward position.
Commentator Li Mu Yang remarked that if Zhong Shaojun has indeed left the military, it indicates he may have faced another demotion. If this information is accurate, it implies that Xi Jinping's power has been further diminished, and it also suggests that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party in October "could witness significant developments".
In a program titled "Ordinary People Inside the Wall", it was pointed out that Xi Jinping's military authority has been entirely stripped away, rendering him unable to command any PLA generals. Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan have not only sidelined Xi Jinping within the military but are also actively working to eliminate his toxic influence.
However, regarding political power, Xi Jinping's faction has not been entirely purged; only a small number of individuals, such as Li Ganjie, Ma Xingrui, Liu Jianchao, and Wang Lixia, have been removed. His core team, including Cai Qi, Li Qiang, Wang Huning, and Wang Yi, remains untouched and will likely face adjustments after the Fourth Plenary Session.
The major showdown in September between Zhang and Xi raises the question: Who will succeed Wang and Hu at the Fourth Plenary Session?
By synthesising the above analysis and revelations, it appears that the so-called showdown between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping in September, prior to the Fourth Plenary Session, should not be underestimated.
On September 17, the program "Xiaoshuojia" suggested that one possible reason for Zhang Youxia placing Xi Jinping under house arrest was to secure the authority for military personnel appointments and dismissals before the Fourth Plenary Session. After all, Xi Jinping remains the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and such appointments still require his signature. With numerous generals from Xi's faction now detained by the military, Zhang Youxia likely has a list of candidates ready to fill these positions, which ultimately needs Xi's approval. However, Xi may not agree, leading to his temporary detention.
Regarding personnel arrangements within the regime, "ordinary people within the wall" believe that Zhang Youxia does not have a strong preference for either Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua, but Liu Yuan is fully supportive of Wang Yang. Liu Yuan's opinions carry significant weight with Zhang Youxia and are also influential within the Chinese Communist Party's military. Zhang Youxia needs Liu Yuan's support to stabilise the military's overall situation, so he will certainly take Liu Yuan's views into careful consideration.
Furthermore, "ordinary people within the wall" have expressed that in their efforts to maintain the stability and unity of the Chinese Communist Party, Wen Jiabao, Li Ruihuan, Zhang Youxia, and Liu Yuan feel they have done all they can. They now hope that Wang Yang will succeed Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and initiate political system reforms.
The "Party Central Decision-Making Coordination Institution" mentioned here was established in June of this year, with Wen Jiabao at the helm. This institution has effectively sidelined the Politburo Standing Committee and Xi Jinping, becoming the current highest temporary power body of the Chinese Communist Party.
The 'ordinary people inside the wall' have noted that all members of the Politburo are now required to report to the 'Party Central Decision-Making Coordination Organisation,' which is represented by Wang Yang. Xi Jinping has effectively become a mere puppet, with his security completely managed by Liu Yuan. His chief of staff, Han Shiming, was captured by the military after resisting their takeover. At present, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China appears calm, and no one dares to challenge the authority of the 'Party Central Decision-Making Coordination Organisation.'
However, there are differing views among Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Zhang Youxia regarding whether Xi Jinping should step down at the Fourth Plenary Session.
According to the analysis from the 'ordinary people inside the wall,' Hu Jintao believes that for the sake of party unity, Xi Jinping can be treated as a puppet until the 21st National Congress, when new leadership can be appointed.
In contrast, Wen Jiabao, Wang Yang, Zhang Youxia, and Liu Yuan oppose the idea of Xi Jinping remaining in power until the 21st National Congress. Wen Jiabao and Wang Yang are primarily concerned about the economic implications, arguing that if Xi Jinping does not step down, market confidence will wane. Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan focus on security, asserting that if Xi Jinping stays in power, everyone will be at risk. This situation is reminiscent of the 'Change of the Gate' during the Ming Dynasty; if Xi Jinping were to ally with an ambitious figure in the military and assassinate Zhang Youxia, the military's dynamics could shift dramatically overnight. Thus, as long as Xi Jinping remains in power, Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan cannot feel secure.
Conclusion
The power struggle within Zhongnanhai is reaching a critical point. The September confrontation between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping has evolved beyond a mere military contest; it now significantly influences the fate of the Chinese Communist Party regime. As the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the question arises: will Xi Jinping be entirely overthrown, or will he merely survive as a puppet? Additionally, who will take over—Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua? The answers to these questions will have a deep impact on the future trajectory of China.
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