Zhao Leji Returns to Beijing; Beidaihe Meeting Expected to Begin, Drawing Attention

File photo: Within the CCP's top leadership circle, it is said that Zhao Leji is like a parasite in Xi Jinping’s stomach, tasked with handling the dirty work that Xi cannot say outright. (Screenshot from video)

[People News] Recently, some overseas independent media have speculated, based on the movements of top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders, that the secretive Beidaihe meeting may already be underway. Traditionally, this meeting is held in late July or early August, but due to the CCP’s opaque nature, the exact start and end dates must be inferred from the public schedules of senior officials.

The Beidaihe meeting draws significant attention because, under the guise of a “vacation,” current CCP leaders and retired elders gather not only to exchange views and divide interests, but also to deliberate and decide on major national policies. This year, amid increasing signs that Xi Jinping has lost control over the military and political authority within the Party, and with several retired leaders possibly dominating political decisions, the outcomes of this year’s meeting could heavily influence China’s future direction.

However, the author believes there are two key reasons why the Beidaihe meeting has not yet started, and it is more likely to begin in early August:

1. Zhao Leji, Chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee and the third-ranking member of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, visited Hungary from July 24 to 28. He likely only returned to Beijing on the 29th. As such a high-ranking figure, Zhao’s presence is essential, making it unlikely that the meeting started in his absence.

2. The July Politburo meeting has not yet been held. According to the CCP's regular procedures, the Politburo typically meets once a month, often to assess the current economic situation and plan for the months ahead.

For example, on July 30, 2024, the CCP Politburo held a meeting to analyse the current economic situation and plan economic work for the second half of the year. In 2023, a similar meeting was held on July 24, with the same agenda.

Based on this pattern, it is inferred that this year’s Politburo meeting will likely be held on July 30 or 31. While the official purpose will again appear to focus on the economy and work planning, the meeting may also cover other critical issues. Recently, the pro-Beijing Hong Kong media outlet Sing Tao Daily reported that the CCP leadership would hold a Politburo meeting before going to Beidaihe for their retreat, to assess the current economic outlook and plan for the remainder of the year. The article also claimed that the meeting is very likely to announce the charges against Miao Hua, strip him of his general rank, and expel him from the CCP.

If the Politburo does publicly announce Miao Hua’s crimes at the end of July, it would represent a direct and open blow to Xi Jinping’s faction, since Miao was personally promoted by Xi and was one of Xi’s most trusted allies in the military. Such a move would strongly confirm rumours that Xi has lost power. Miao’s downfall would likely be followed by a purge of other military officials tied to Xi’s camp. Supporting this theory, on July 21, the Central Military Commission issued a new set of regulations stating the need to "completely eliminate poisonous influences and restore the authority and image of political cadres," suggesting that preparations for a broader political cleanup are already underway.

Historically, CCP leaders have upheld Mao Zedong’s doctrine that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Whether a party leader can hold onto power and issue commands from Zhongnanhai (the CCP’s central compound) has largely depended on their absolute control over the military. Given the current situation—where the Chinese military has downplayed Xi's influence and many of his loyal military allies have been arrested—it is clear that Xi, who never fully controlled the army, has now completely lost his grip on it.

So, what will Xi’s position be at the Beidaihe meeting without the backing of the military? It’s worth recalling that in August 2019, during the Beidaihe meeting, there were reports from overseas sources of intense infighting among the CCP leadership. One former Politburo Standing Committee member reportedly distributed a document titled “Will We Still Be Able to Meet at Beidaihe Next Year?”, which posed eight hard-hitting questions that struck at the heart of the CCP’s systemic crises. These questions were reportedly circulated among high-ranking officials at Beidaihe and caused a major stir.

The eight explosive questions were:

1. How will the Hong Kong issue ultimately be resolved?

2. If China’s economy continues in this direction, will it survive into next year?

3. Can Chinese society endure another year under such intense pressure?

4. With U.S.-China tensions so high, can the CCP and Chinese government hold on until next year? What about other unavoidable and unchangeable problems like those in Xinjiang and Tibet? If internal unrest or rebellion breaks out, how will it be dealt with?

5. Can the CCP still effectively control the internet and social media in this era?

6. What happens if China faces a simultaneous explosion of fiscal deficit and foreign debt?

7. If the U.S. and other Western nations classify all CCP overseas assets as illegally obtained and seize them, what will the CCP do?

8. Under the current National Security Commission system, which has effectively dismantled the Politburo Standing Committee, can this model really continue?

Although the COVID-19 pandemic delayed the eruption of many of these crises, today they have only become more severe and urgent. The CCP is now facing unprecedented challenges, and many officials appear to be preparing for the regime's potential collapse. In other words, this year’s Beidaihe meeting may not just be about internal resistance to Xi — but about debating whether, and how, to replace him, and determining what path the Party will take from here.

(First published by Renminbao)