In the early hours of October 1, 2024, a comet that appears once every 60,000 years streaked across the skies over Beijing, sparking widespread discussion. Some bluntly remarked, "The appearance of a broom star (a traditional term for comets) is not a good omen." (Video screenshot)
People News - In my previous article, I analyzed the potential misfortunes the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could face in 2025 from the perspectives of corruption, the economy, and public resistance. In this article, I will forecast challenges from the domains of diplomacy, military, and supply chains.
Diplomacy
On December 30, South China Morning Post reported that a delegation led by Deputy Director of the CCP’s International Liaison Department and former Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang visited the U.S. earlier this month. During their week-long visit, they met with White House officials, senior State Department members, and Congressional representatives, attempting to ease tensions between China and the U.S. Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce recently expressed an "open attitude" toward engaging with the economic and trade teams of the new U.S. administration. CCP leader Xi Jinping has reiterated his desire to "maintain dialogue."
Earlier this month, Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning conveyed similar sentiments during his meeting with Harvard professor Graham Allison, leveraging personal relationships to advocate for CCP-friendly diplomacy. Reports also claim that Beijing holds a list of U.S. billionaires with potential as communication intermediaries.
"The era of 'wolf warrior diplomacy' is over, and signs of capitulation are obvious." Even more humiliatingly, CCP propaganda has shifted its anti-American tone. Starting December 25, People's Daily and Global Times jointly launched a campaign to solicit stories about "China-U.S. friendship and cooperation." The campaign calls for submissions centered on "inheriting trust and friendship," using text, photos, and videos to depict "deeply moving" stories of Sino-American exchanges and to showcase a "beautiful narrative of cooperation." This initiative is set to last six months.
On December 27, Yang Haiying, a professor at Japan's Shizuoka University, told the media that the CCP hopes to use this campaign to signal goodwill to the United States. On December 26, CCP media also published an article stating that Sino-U.S. relations should "calibrate to the correct course."
However, ordinary Chinese citizens, long brainwashed by CCP propaganda into believing that the "evil American imperialists are intent on destroying China," struggle to reconcile this sudden shift to narratives of Sino-U.S. camaraderie. Many are left confused about where the "correct direction" truly lies.
Experts widely agree, however, that Beijing’s string of conciliatory gestures toward the Trump administration has yielded little effect. During Trump’s first term, there were more than 90 official communication channels between China and the U.S. Yet, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his team showed little interest, dismissing these channels as a waste of time that failed to alter Chinese policies detrimental to U.S. interests. By the end of Trump’s first term, these channels had been reduced to nearly zero.
After the trials of the COVID-19 pandemic and four years of geopolitical tension, Trump—before even assuming office again—emphasized his intent to impose additional tariffs on Beijing. His electoral victory has since been followed by the formation of a cabinet populated with staunch China hawks, such as his picks for Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. It is clear that Sino-U.S. relations will only grow colder, with no chance of warming up.
As relations with the U.S. chill further, European countries, Canada, and Australia are unlikely to show much goodwill toward the CCP. Beyond lavish spending in Africa, the only major nation that can still be called a "close ally" is Russia. However, bogged down by war and largely in a position of demand, Russia often seeks benefits from the CCP and may abandon Beijing for better prospects with Western countries.
In 2025, the CCP could find itself in a precarious diplomatic position, facing a "besieged on all sides" scenario on the international stage.
Military Aggression
The CCP also has one more option: military action against the Republic of China (Taiwan) to divert domestic contradictions. However, Taiwan now has advanced defense weapon systems, and international forces largely support Taiwan. The CCP’s military is mired in corruption, disarray, internal power struggles, and low morale, leading to widespread loss of both military and public support. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the CCP will engage in military action against Taiwan in 2025. Some analysts argue that if no action is taken by around January 20, the CCP will not launch an attack on Taiwan for at least the next four years.
For years, the CCP has been flexing its muscles around Taiwan, but its threats have been ineffective and ridiculed internationally as a paper tiger. "All they have achieved is the waste of public funds and the pollution of the marine and space environments, earning nothing but embarrassment."
The CCP has also resorted to threats against the Philippines and India.
In reality, the CCP’s claims of defending its territory are nothing but lies. As Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te aptly stated, if China truly cares about its territorial integrity, it should reclaim the northeastern territories it ceded to Russia. Clearly, the CCP only uses nationalism to create a fake enemy and intimidate both its military and citizens in order to maintain its political control. When confronted by real global powers, the CCP will quickly offer concessions or even surrender, as seen in its dealings with Russia to the north and India to the south.
Power Erosion
Another possibility is that the current leader's power could further diminish, and he might even lose power. In July this year, rumors circulated that due to health problems, Xi Jinping had begun to loosen his grip on power. Shortly afterward, several of his close associates were detained or demoted, including Military Commission member Miao Hua, whose downfall is seen as a sign that Xi’s authority is waning.
Recent public appearances by Xi show signs of health issues. He is often seen walking unsteadily, his reactions appearing slow, and his complexion flushed. This suggests that his health has reached a critical point, at least signaling a potential decline.
Many of Xi’s key policies, such as the Xiong'an New Area, the Belt and Road Initiative, the victory over the pandemic, the eradication of poverty, and the alliance with Russia against the U.S., have all turned into unfinished projects. These have become convenient points for Xi’s internal critics to challenge and use as excuses to erode his power.
Xi's visible unease and anxiety suggest a profound sense of insecurity, even exhaustion, and this feeling is reportedly spreading to those around him, making it feel like "accompanying the emperor is like walking with a tiger."
Xi Jinping’s health issues also correspond to a crisis within the CCP. Many in Zhongnanhai (the CCP's headquarters) are vying for power, and internal strife could break out, leading to fierce competition.
Recently, the CCP’s military newspaper has published multiple articles advocating for "collective leadership" to challenge Xi’s control over the Central Military Commission. Some analysts argue that this indicates an internal CCP challenge to Xi’s power, with factions within the party pushing to undermine his authority.
It is highly likely that in 2025, Xi could face internal reckoning and be targeted by the anti-Xi faction. Despite Xi’s determination to cling to power, his efforts to protect the party may end up backfiring. The anti-Xi forces are precisely those using the party’s name as a shield for their resistance.
Supply Chain Breakdown
A potential final blow to the CCP could be the collapse of its "red supply chain."
Following export bans on gallium, germanium, and rare earths last year, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed another export ban in September, restricting "some antimony and superhard materials." The CCP attempts to create "artificial scarcity" by cutting off upstream supply chains, but this is not due to actual market shortages. "In the past, China produced large quantities and kept prices low, which led Western countries to reduce production or halt mining. However, once China cuts off exports, prices will inevitably rise, prompting Western countries to restart rare earth mining or invest more in alternative supply chains. This means China will exhaust its own advantages in the rare minerals supply chain."
In terms of currency, the CCP has tried to counter the strategic pushback from Europe and the U.S. by selling U.S. debt, devaluing the yuan, and even manipulating exchange rates. This essentially sets China on a path of decoupling from the world ahead of time.
As a result, many countries are likely to reduce their investments in China, and foreign capital will continue to withdraw. This will plunge China further into economic and living crises.
Famous British forecaster Mr. Parker predicts that in 2025, Xi Jinping will lose power and the CCP will head toward collapse. Based on various signs, 2025 could be described by a single word: "decline" or failure. This decline could be characterized by a long period of stagnation, resembling a gradual downward slide that locks in a doomed path. If things go awry, as Mr. Parker predicts, it could indeed be the CCP's downfall.
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