Ending the Russia-Ukraine War: Trump’s Strategy and Its Threefold Impact

U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

[People News] Before his election, Trump stated that if elected, he would end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours. On November 14, during an event at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said that his new administration would focus on the war between Russia and Ukraine. Quoting CNN, the Kyiv Independent reported that during his speech at the America First Policy Institute Gala (AFPI Gala), Trump said, “We will deal with the Middle East, and we will work very hard on the Russia and Ukraine issue. This must stop. Russia and Ukraine must stop.”

So far, Trump has not elaborated on how his new administration would end the war, leaving the world with considerable uncertainty. Both Putin and Zelensky are currently positioning themselves to secure the best possible bargaining chips ahead of Trump potentially taking office next year.

On November 14, Russian mainstream media quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, stating that Trump's inauguration as U.S. president would not fundamentally change America's position on the Ukraine issue. On the same day, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova declared that the West must cease all military aid to Ukraine. This appears to be a precondition set by Putin for peace negotiations.

Following Trump's election, The Wall Street Journal revealed details of a potential peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war devised by Trump's team. A key component of the plan is that Ukraine would have to commit to not considering NATO membership for the next 20 years. In return, the United States would continue supplying Ukraine with significant amounts of weaponry to deter future Russian aggression. However, on October 16, during a session of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (parliament), Zelensky proposed a “Five-Point Victory Plan,” with the foremost goal being Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO.

Currently, 20% of Ukraine's territory is under Russian control. Kyiv’s peace plan requires the expulsion of Russian forces and the return of all occupied territories, including Crimea, as a prerequisite for achieving peace.

On November 9, Trump senior advisor Bryan Lanza stated in a BBC interview: "If President Zelensky comes to the negotiating table and says, 'Okay, we can only achieve peace if we have Crimea,' he is showing us that he is not serious... Crimea is already gone... If reclaiming Crimea is your top priority and you expect American soldiers to fight for it, then you are on your own."

Although Trump’s team and advisors do not fully represent him, Trump’s "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) philosophy and his vision for the global order suggest that in Trump 2.0, the United States would make significant strategic shifts. The focus would move away from deep involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern conflicts to addressing the threats and challenges posed by China to the United States and the world. The composition of Trump’s national security team, entirely comprised of hardliners on China, underscores this point.

Perhaps anticipating that Kyiv may not secure a favorable position at the negotiating table under Trump’s leadership—or preparing for a last-ditch effort—The Times recently reported that Ukraine could potentially develop a tactical nuclear weapon within months. Using technology similar to the "Fat Man" bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945, Ukraine, with its nine operational nuclear reactors, is estimated to have around 7 tons of plutonium available. This amount could produce hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons capable of destroying Russian military facilities, bases, logistics hubs, and industrial sites.

Although Kyiv has not commented on The Times report, the possibility of Ukraine returning to the status of a nuclear power does indeed exist. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear weapons on the condition that its territorial integrity and political independence would be guaranteed by Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. However, Russia was the first to violate the agreement by invading Ukraine.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the third-largest nuclear power in the world. With its technological capabilities, equipment, and personnel, Ukraine is fully capable of regaining control over nuclear weapons. Its justification for rebuilding a nuclear arsenal is strong, leaving little room for interference from the U.S. and the U.K. The pressing question remains: if Kyiv and Moscow remain irreconcilable, both vying to secure stronger bargaining positions, and if the U.S. truly withdraws military aid to Kyiv, Ukraine might pursue nuclear weapons for self-defense. Should a nuclear war erupt between Russia and Ukraine, it would be a disaster for the entire planet.

Finding a way to bring Zelensky and Putin quietly to the negotiating table is indeed a daunting challenge. The key lies in recognizing that behind global flashpoints like the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the shadow of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) looms. Ultimately, the CCP stands as the likely beneficiary, reaping the spoils of these crises. Since the Clinton administration, America’s leftist policies have enabled the CCP to grow into a significant threat. Currently, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have formed an "axis of evil." Without covert military and financial support from the CCP, Russia’s war effort would not have lasted this long.

Compared to Zelensky, Putin is likely to be even more reluctant to return to the negotiating table. If Trump withdraws U.S. military aid to Ukraine and demands that NATO nations pay for U.S. troop deployments, NATO’s long-term support for Ukraine may waver. Kyiv would likely be compelled to negotiate, as Crimea was originally Russian territory, handed over to Ukraine by Khrushchev. If Trump promises to help Ukraine rebuild its economy, develop non-nuclear weapons to deter Russia, and use political and diplomatic measures to address occupied territories, Zelensky might consider accepting a neutral position and abandoning claims to Crimea as part of a peace settlement.

The greater challenge lies with Putin. Thus far, he has shown no intention of altering his objectives in the "special military operation." Instead, he has signed a defense agreement with North Korea, bringing North Korean troops into the conflict, signaling a potential escalation. On the battlefield, Putin has reportedly sacrificed around 600,000 soldiers and continues to replenish his forces. He sustains the war effort through a "death economy," incentivizing participation with significant monetary compensation.

According to The Wall Street Journal, in Russia’s poorer regions, soldiers earn an average monthly salary of about $2,100—five times the average income of local civilians. Putin also provides substantial death benefits to the families of fallen soldiers, totaling $30 billion between June 2023 and June 2024. These benefits account for 8% of Russia’s fiscal spending. In the impoverished Tuva Republic, where poverty rates are three times the national average, bank deposits have risen by 151% since January 2022 (a month before the invasion of Ukraine).

Behind Putin’s ability to fund this war is covert support from China. According to Voice of America, the Russia-Ukraine war has accelerated Sino-Russian trade. Bilateral trade grew from $147 billion in 2021 to $190.27 billion in 2022, a 30% increase, and further surged to $240.1 billion in 2023, an additional 26.3% rise. While Western trade with Russia has plummeted, China has provided significant economic support through trade, including dual-use goods like drones, machinery for weapons manufacturing, and materials for military production.

If Trump wants to bring Putin out of the war and to the negotiating table, he must cut off China's covert support. How can this be achieved? First Strategy: Raise Tariffs. Trump could increase tariffs on Chinese goods to over 60%. During his first term, Trump used tariff adjustments to pressure China into influencing Kim Jong-un of North Korea to halt nuclear development. If Trump returns to the White House, he is likely to wield tariffs as a "big stick" to compel China into compliance.

Second Strategy: Play the Taiwan Card. This strategy strikes at China's most sensitive point—Taiwan. Crossing this psychological red line for Beijing would likely provoke a strong reaction, with multiple approaches available:

Arms Sales: Trump could sell Taiwan more offensive weapons, such as F-35 stealth fighters and Aegis destroyers, to enhance Taiwan's air and naval combat capabilities. During his first term, Trump sold Taiwan F-16V fighter jets and HIMARS rocket systems, which greatly angered Beijing.

Upgrading U.S.-Taiwan Diplomatic Relations: The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) could be upgraded to the status of an official U.S. representative office, a tactic used by Lithuania to provoke Beijing.

High-Level Official Visits: Trump could facilitate mutual visits between senior U.S. and Taiwanese officials. In 1997, U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan, even after informing Beijing beforehand. Although this enraged Jiang Zemin, Gingrich proceeded with his trip, forcing Beijing to accept the visit under the compromise of visiting China first.

Direct U.S.-Taiwan Leadership Interaction: During Trump’s first term, he directly spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen over the phone, causing Beijing to respond furiously.

Leverage Starlink Technology: Trump could propose involving Elon Musk to assist Taiwan in establishing Starlink internet capabilities. This would greatly strengthen Taiwan's infrastructure, despite prior efforts by Xi Jinping to dissuade Musk through intermediaries like Putin.

In summary, Trump has numerous options for playing the Taiwan card. The goal is to pressure China into withdrawing military support for Putin, forcing Putin to the negotiating table. If the White House adopts this approach, it could achieve three objectives simultaneously: Strike a blow against Beijing. Demonstrate strategic clarity in U.S.-Taiwan relations. Successfully facilitate a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

(Originally published by People News)