Senior Central Military Commission Officials Detained, Possible Coup in Beijing in November

As of October this year, at least 22 CCP officials in Guangdong Province have been dismissed, among whom 19 are under investigation, 2 have been sentenced, and 1 has been expelled from public office. Illustration. (Video screenshot)

[People News] On November 11, 2024, Dajiyuan published an article by Yue Shan titled Xi’s Confidant Miao Hua Reportedly Detained, Xi’s Foreign Visit Might Face Domestic Crisis. The full text follows:

On November 8, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Xi Jinping will depart on a nine-day trip to South America on the 13th, attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) informal leaders' meeting and the G20 summit. Xi has previously gone on trips lasting nine days or more, primarily early in his tenure, such as his first visits to Russia and Africa from March 22 to 30, 2013, and to Europe from March 22 to April 2, 2014. In recent years, this has not been common. Now, with the CCP facing both internal and external challenges and sensitive internal power struggles, Xi’s prolonged absence may create a precarious situation domestically.

Cai Shenkun and Yao Cheng Simultaneously Reveal: Xi’s Ally Miao Hua Has Been Detained

On November 11, independent commentator Cai Shenkun reported on X (formerly Twitter) that Miao Hua, a Central Military Commission (CMC) member, head of the CMC’s Political Work Department, and Navy Admiral, was taken away by the CMC’s Discipline Commission. This reportedly signals a purge of Xi’s loyalists in the military’s propaganda and personnel management, affecting high-ranking generals promoted by Miao, including the new Defense Minister, Admiral Dong Jun.

Cai remarked that Miao’s incident indicates a significant blow to the “Fujian faction” within the military, which Xi had supported.

On the same day, Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel in the Chinese Navy, also shared on X that the internal power struggle within the CMC is escalating and becoming public, with CMC member and Political Work Department head Miao Hua under investigation.

Although this information has not yet been confirmed by Chinese authorities, recent overseas reports of troubles among high-ranking officers, such as Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao and military industry executives, have been later verified. Both Cai and Yao, now based in the U.S., have reliable sources within the CCP and often share relatively accurate information.

According to the Ministry of Defense’s website, Miao Hua’s most recent public appearance was on October 7 at the 70th-anniversary celebration of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, where he delivered a congratulatory message as deputy head of the central delegation. Additionally, Miao appeared on CCTV on October 29, attending a special seminar for provincial and ministerial-level officials at the Party School, with a seemingly tense expression.

Reports casting doubt on Miao Hua’s standing have circulated previously. In February, freelance writer Du Zheng described Miao Hua as a “silent giant tiger” in the military, who, as head of political affairs, installed loyalists across the military. Miao reportedly required his approval for all personnel advancements before reporting them to Xi. Corruption is alleged to be rampant under his watch.

Miao Hua, now 68, served for many years in the 31st Army of the Nanjing Military Region stationed in Fujian and is closely associated with Xi, who held positions in Fujian. In December 2014, Miao moved from the army to the navy, becoming Navy Political Commissar after serving as Political Commissar of the Lanzhou Military Region. In August 2017, he became head of the CMC’s Political Work Department and began overseeing personnel matters for the entire military.

Rumors about Miao’s troubles have emerged amid frequent reports of factional infighting within the CMC, said to be between the “Shaanxi faction” led by CMC First Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and the “Fujian faction” led by another Vice Chairman, He Weidong. Although He and Miao are not Fujian natives, they came from the 31st Army stationed in Fujian and are seen as part of Xi’s “Fujian faction.”

Reports of Xi’s Loss of Military Control After the Third Plenum; Internal Factional Struggles within the CMC

Since the mid-July Third Plenum, unusual developments in the CCP political landscape have sparked rumors that Xi’s power, especially over the military, has weakened, with Zhang Youxia, an old guard military leader backed by senior CCP members, appearing increasingly prominent.

In October, Yao Cheng reported on X that Zhang Youxia seemed to be targeting the Navy, with former political commissar Qin Shengxiang and current commissar Yuan Huazhi reportedly under investigation—both of whom had been promoted under Miao Hua’s tenure as Navy Political Commissar from 2014 to 2017 and are considered Xi’s allies. Yao stated that if Miao Hua, head of the CMC’s Political Work Department, were indeed in trouble, it would mean that Xi has essentially lost control over the military.

On July 9, CMC Political Work Department Deputy Chief He Hongjun was promoted to general. Previously a deputy, he was promoted to first deputy director of the department, a full battle-zone-level general. This appointment, placing an empowered deputy under Miao, signaled that Miao might be heading for retirement or even an early fall from power. He Hongjun, from Yang County in Shaanxi, is believed to be part of Zhang Youxia’s “Shaanxi faction,” possibly arranged through Zhang’s influence.

Xi’s recently appointed officials have frequently encountered issues or disappeared from public view. For instance, his personal secretary Zhong Shaojun, promoted to CMC General Office Director, was recently reportedly reassigned as Political Commissar of the National Defense University, but this hasn’t been confirmed. In another case, 61-year-old Chen Guoqiang, a CMC Discipline Commission Standing Committee member and Deputy Secretary-General, was reassigned to be Political Commissar of the National University of Defense Technology, a move seen as a loss of influence. Meanwhile, his predecessor, Major General Fu Aiguo, 60, disappeared from view, suggesting a possible realignment of power among the military’s top brass, with Zhang Youxia likely in control.

Will Xi’s Upcoming 10-Day Trip Abroad Worry Him About Domestic Stability?

Will Xi worry about internal issues erupting during his nine-day trip?

In December last year, during Xi’s visit to Vietnam, I obtained a confidential document from the Weinan Public Security Bureau in Shaanxi Province, forwarded by the provincial Public Security Department. The document, titled Notice on the Operation Mechanism of Emergency Duty and Intelligence-Command Integration by the Weinan Public Security Bureau During Xi Jinping’s Foreign Visit, was distributed to local bureaus and police departments.

This 10-page document emphasized the need to ensure the “continuous stability of national political security and overall social order” during Xi’s visit to Vietnam by closely monitoring hostile forces, overseas media attacks, disturbances by overseas petitioners, and domestic security risks. 

Given this precedent, Xi’s current trip will likely involve similar concerns about domestic instability, including potential uprisings by citizens or unrest within the Party and military.

Recently, an incident in Zhengzhou, Henan, saw 200,000 people join a night ride to Kaifeng, dubbed the "Night Ride Revolution," which has since spread across the country, with Beijing’s Tiananmen also becoming a target for young night riders. Authorities reportedly suspect involvement by hostile forces and have ramped up control measures.

Even before Xi’s departure, reports of trouble with his ally, Miao Hua, have surfaced. Although unconfirmed, the rumors of infighting alone are an ominous sign for Xi and the CCP regime. This could leave Xi anxious even as he heads to South America, much like when he was momentarily flustered last August in South Africa after security blocked his entourage at the conference entrance. This time, Xi might worry about a coup occurring back home, potentially preventing his return to Beijing.

Historic shifts often happen suddenly—anything is possible!