The picture shows Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, attending the National People's Congress on March 12, 2023. (Screenshot from the web)
[November 5, 2024] Recently, rumors have intensified about the uncertain future of Cai Qi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee and head of the Central Secretariat. Unlike other top CCP leaders, Cai Qi has been unusually low-profile, refraining from field research trips and notably absent from Xi Jinping’s recent inspection visits. Analysts believe that CCP officials often become low-profile before facing trouble, being "put on ice" or "cooled down." Under these circumstances, Cai’s low-key behavior could signal his impending fall from power.
Cai Qi’s most recent public appearance was on November 1, when he attended and spoke at the closing ceremony of a study session for major provincial and ministerial-level leaders. On October 30, Cai attended the session’s opening ceremony alongside the six other Politburo Standing Committee members.
Earlier, on October 24, Cai accompanied Xi Jinping to Kazan, Russia, for the BRICS leaders' summit.
In sharp contrast to Cai’s low profile, other Politburo Standing Committee members and officials have been quite active recently, making international visits, conducting field research, or meeting foreign dignitaries.
For instance, Li Xi, a Politburo Standing Committee member and head of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, visited Italy from October 30 to November 2.
On November 1, Politburo member and Vice Premier He Lifeng met with a high-level Australian business delegation in Beijing.
That same day, Politburo Standing Committee members Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, and Premier Li Qiang each met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Xi Jinping Visits Fujian and Anhui Without Cai Qi’s Accompaniment
In mid-October, Xi Jinping traveled to Fujian and Anhui for inspection visits. Observers noted that Cai Qi, known as one of Xi's closest allies, did not accompany him, sparking speculation about his status.
From October 17 to 18, Xi inspected locations in Anhui, including Anqing and Hefei. Prior to this, from October 15 to 16, Xi visited Zhangzhou and Xiamen in Fujian.
According to CCP state media, the highest-ranking official accompanying Xi was Vice Premier He Lifeng. Cai Qi, who usually accompanies Xi as a Politburo Standing Committee member and director of the General Office, was notably absent.
Videos released by CCTV showed He Lifeng seated on Xi’s left during briefings by Fujian officials, with Meng Xiangfeng, the executive deputy director of the General Office, on Xi’s right.
As a native of Fujian and a longtime confidant of Xi from Xi’s early career in the province, Cai Qi’s absence during Xi’s Fujian trip fueled public speculation about his situation.
Cai Qi’s Low-Profile Behavior
U.S.-based political analyst Chen Pokong suggests that the political situation in the CCP is becoming increasingly strange and complex. He believes that personnel adjustments may be underway among top CCP officials, with Cai Qi possibly facing the risk of being ousted.
On November 3, Chen told Epoch Times reporters that Cai has rarely appeared in public recently, except for a few meetings and the Russia trip with Xi. Chen speculates that Cai may be in trouble and could be removed during the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session.
Chen noted that before officials encounter trouble, they often become low-key, are "put on ice," or “cooled down.” This subdued behavior from Cai may indicate he is on the verge of stepping down.
Chen pointed to two main reasons for the potential ouster. First, with the Chinese economy in decline and crises piling up, the CCP’s senior leaders may look to shift blame. If removing Xi himself isn’t feasible, they may instead purge his closest associates. Cai, overseeing ideology, could be labeled as a “treacherous official” and removed to transfer blame for the leftist policies onto him. Xi may also use this moment to scapegoat Cai for policy failures. However, Chen noted that this theory is still inconclusive.
A second possibility, Chen suggested, is that during the Third Plenary Session, Cai may have conformed to other factions’ wishes to remove Xi’s reports from state media after Xi’s alleged stroke. If Xi harbored discontent upon recovery, he might now be considering letting others handle Cai, especially if Cai has become a target of resentment within the party.
Political commentator Li Linyi also believes that Cai Qi’s future within the CCP looks grim. Speaking to Epoch Times, Li pointed out unusual patterns in state media coverage of Cai. Unlike other top officials, Cai has not been conducting field research, nor did he accompany Xi on inspection trips. Another notable sign, Li mentioned, is the apparent cooling down of Xi’s personal cult within the party.
Li said Cai’s future within the party will depend on how well Xi can consolidate his authority. Current indicators suggest that Xi’s power is waning, which could impact his close ally Cai Qi. As one of Xi’s most loyal followers, Cai is likely to feel the effects.
Cai Qi’s Role in the Eviction of Beijing’s “Low-End Population”
Public records indicate that Cai Qi, born in December 1955, is from Youxi County, Fujian Province. He held positions in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces before becoming a member of the Politburo and Party Secretary of Beijing in 2017. At the 20th Party Congress, Cai was unexpectedly promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee.
Ranked fifth in the Politburo Standing Committee, Cai serves immediately below Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, and Wang Huning, and above Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi. Cai also holds the highest position in the Secretariat of the Central Committee and serves as director of the General Office, an unprecedented dual role for a Standing Committee member.
In November 2017, after a major fire in Beijing, Cai, then Beijing Party Secretary, ordered large-scale demolitions and evicted so-called “low-end populations” in harsh winter conditions.
On the night of November 18, 2017, a fire broke out in Xinjian Second Village, Xihongmen Town, Daxing District, Beijing, killing 19 and injuring 8.
From November 20 to the end of December, Beijing authorities launched a 40-day campaign of "thorough inspection, cleanup, and rectification," claiming it was to eliminate “safety hazards.”
The campaign targeted buildings and industrial sites, particularly in mixed-use districts. Rental apartments and large rental complexes in suburban areas were key focus areas for the cleanup.
CCP state media reported that the campaign spanned various regions, industries, and enterprises in Beijing.
The operation left thousands of residents suddenly homeless, with many forced to sleep on the streets in freezing temperatures. Since most were low-income migrant workers, international media described the campaign as an eviction of "low-end populations."
The forced evictions provoked widespread social criticism and public outcry. In response to the backlash, Cai Qi adjusted his rhetoric, stating that the campaign should reflect “humanistic care” to quell the controversy.
Cai Qi’s “Red-Handed” Speech Leaked
In December of the same year, a recording of an internal speech by Cai Qi surfaced on overseas social media, showing his harsh tone when addressing “Beijing issues.” In the video, Cai is seen striking a table with his right hand and looking stern.
In a two-minute speech, Cai said, “At the grassroots level, it’s real guns, real knives. We need to see red with the bayonets and have the courage to confront hard issues and solve problems.”
Cai added, “If you don’t approach your work with this attitude, sooner or later, something like this will happen in your area. No matter what happens, in the capital, there are no small issues—only big issues. Party committees in all districts must strictly implement territorial responsibility, and the top leaders must take charge…”
While the video didn’t specify when it was recorded, many believe it was made after the Daxing fire incident.
Reported by Shu Hua Lian
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