Zhong Yuan: Trump’s Return to the White House and the Hesitant Response from Zhongnanhai

Former U.S. President Donald Trump (People News)

November 7, 2024 — Around 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 6, Donald Trump declared victory. World leaders promptly sent their congratulations. At 3:30 p.m. Beijing time, Xinhua News Agency reported Trump's win. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not issue a statement until 11:30 p.m., cautiously congratulating Trump. Xi Jinping, meanwhile, remained silent. Among the seven members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, three were not in Beijing, explaining the delayed and awkward response.

A Blunder from the Chinese Foreign Ministry

At the November 6 press conference, a reporter asked about the CCP's response to the U.S. election results. Spokesperson Mao Ning initially refused to answer "hypothetical questions" and later said, "We will handle relevant matters according to established practice."

The Foreign Ministry website published this exchange at 5:43 p.m., while Xinhua reported at 3:30 p.m. that "U.S. media estimates Trump has won over 270 electoral votes" and followed up at 3:32 p.m. with "Trump announces victory."

Xinhua closely monitored the U.S. election, reporting the results immediately after Trump’s announcement. The Foreign Ministry could not have been unaware, yet its press conference responses at 5:43 p.m. still tried to avoid direct acknowledgment, likely due to a lack of clear instructions from Zhongnanhai.

It wasn’t until 11:30 p.m. that the Foreign Ministry added a statement on its website, saying, "We respect the choice of the American people and congratulate Mr. Trump on his election." Xinhua reported this at 11:57 p.m.

The Foreign Ministry likely felt it met its deadline before midnight, but this congratulatory statement was far from the "standard practice." The top two headlines on the Foreign Ministry’s website that day were Xi’s congratulatory messages to the newly elected presidents of Botswana and Fiji on November 5.

Despite not being in Beijing on November 5, Xi managed to send timely congratulatory messages to these countries’ new presidents, yet he did not promptly congratulate Trump after his win, marking a stark contrast with responses from other world leaders.

Xi likely did not want to send a congratulatory message, but this stance contradicted the CCP’s declared goal of bringing U.S.-China relations "back on track." It remains to be seen how the other Politburo Standing Committee members, both present and absent from Beijing, will react, as well as the response from retired Politburo members who are regaining a voice. Is Xi preparing to step down, or is he merely sulking internally and externally?

This move undermines the CCP’s so-called "major power diplomacy" and "head of state diplomacy." The current disarray in Zhongnanhai suggests it cannot respond to major international events effectively, leaving future actions uncertain.

Signs of Embarrassment

Recently, Xinhua launched a wave of high-density propaganda disparaging the U.S. election, indicating the CCP's awareness of Trump’s possible return to the White House. However, Zhongnanhai was unwilling to accept this and ordered a blackout on discussions of U.S. polling and large-scale early voting, instead focusing on demonizing American democratic elections. This seemed more like an act of frustrated resignation.

During Trump’s previous term (2017-2020), his boldest move was using the trade war to weaken the CCP, leaving its leader humiliated.

During Biden’s presidency, the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods during Trump’s administration were retained. During his campaign, Trump stated he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods to at least 60% and suggested that if China attacked Taiwan, tariffs could go up to 100-200%. Trump also said that if China dared to invade Taiwan, the U.S. would bomb Beijing.

The CCP likely made attempts to interfere in the election, employing fake social media accounts to spread misinformation, create hatred, and sow chaos. Nonetheless, it failed to prevent Trump’s return. Faced with Trump’s impending presidency, Zhongnanhai finds itself unprepared, with no one willing or confident enough to confront Trump, nor anyone eager to initiate a gesture of goodwill.

The other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee and Politburo members may be amused, waiting for the CCP’s top leader to be forced to bow and admit mistakes. If Xi chooses to act tough, it could provide an opportunity for others to gang up and challenge him, potentially leading to a shift in leadership and a new "emperor."

Still, Xi is unlikely to surrender. Anticipating the results on November 5, he left Beijing from November 4 to 6 to visit Xiaogan, Xianning, and Wuhan in Hubei Province, effectively avoiding being in Beijing when Trump announced his win, hinting at his intention not to send timely congratulations.

What Were the Politburo Members Doing?

On the day of the U.S. election, the Politburo Standing Committee members should have convened to strategize. However, Xi chose this moment to tour Hubei and inspect the military, showing a lack of priority.

Li Qiang attended the opening of the China International Import Expo in Shanghai on November 5. Although the event had few attendees, it was still an opportunity for him to gain visibility and avoid the U.S. election's fallout. Li met with invited foreign guests, including the prime ministers of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Serbia, Mongolia, Malaysia, and the leader of Myanmar's military government, Min Aung Hlaing. But these meetings were not the core focus of the expo.

Li Qiang's return to Shanghai, where he rose to power, allowed him to distance himself from Beijing during the U.S. election, waiting to watch the reaction from there. Xi, meanwhile, was also away from Beijing.

Zhao Leji had to stay in Beijing, chairing the National People’s Congress meeting on November 6, allowing him to claim he was too busy to join discussions on responding to the U.S. election.

Wang Huning met with the visiting Hungarian parliamentary speaker on November 6. As the head of the CCP's United Front Work Department rather than a legislative leader, he could justify having work to do and staying busy.

Cai Qi did not accompany Xi on his inspection tour. On November 6, Xinhua reported Xi’s instructions on social work, with Cai attending a central social work meeting and conveying Xi’s message. This appearance suggested that Cai was not under suspicion and provided a reason for not accompanying Xi. However, there are rumors that Cai Qi and Xi have both lost power, or that Cai betrayed Xi.

Ding Xuexiang has not been reported in recent news. His last appearance was on October 25, when he met with Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management advisory board members, including chairman Tim Cook. Former Premier Zhu Rongji made a public appearance at the same event, but Xinhua did not report it.

Li Xi visited Kenya from November 3 to 5.

With three of the seven Politburo Standing Committee members outside Beijing, any discussion on how to respond to Trump’s win may have been conducted by video or phone, likely without results, leaving the Foreign Ministry to issue a brief congratulatory statement.

Trump’s return to the White House is a major global event, and the Politburo Standing Committee currently appears disorganized, unprepared, and unable to properly discuss strategy.

Zhongnanhai’s hesitant response has revealed the true state of affairs in Beijing to the world. Trump is no longer an inexperienced politician. How will he use this rare opportunity to strike at the CCP again?

First published by Dajiyuan

Editor: Gao Yi