Port of Auckland. (Xinran Li / Dajiyuan)
November 7, 2024 — With the U.S. election concluded and Donald Trump poised to impose tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on Chinese goods, Chinese merchants have moved swiftly, accelerating their inventory shipments to major markets. This has driven China’s October export figures to reach a two-year high, significantly surpassing market expectations.
With the Republican Party regaining control of the Senate, Trump’s political agenda is set to move more smoothly through Congress. In his victory speech early Wednesday (November 6), Trump reiterated his commitment to "governing by keeping promises."
Amid the threat of new tariffs, data shows that Chinese merchants have rushed to export goods ahead of the tariff increase. Reuters predicted that the U.S., as China’s largest export market, may face issues with warehouses overloaded with Chinese goods, exacerbating inventory pressures and posing challenges to supply chain management.
According to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Thursday (November 7), China’s October exports increased by 12.7%, reaching $309 billion. This growth rate far exceeded September’s 2.4% increase, as well as Wind Information’s forecast of 5.5% and Reuters economists’ prediction of 5.2%.
However, China’s October imports fell by 2.3%, below the market expectation of a 1.5% decline, marking the first negative growth in four months.
Export momentum has been a bright spot in China’s otherwise sluggish economy.
China’s exports to the U.S. rose by 8.1% year-on-year last month, while exports to Europe grew by 12.7%.
Trump’s tariff strategy has unsettled Chinese factory owners and officials, as these tariffs are expected to impact approximately $500 billion in annual exports.
Trade tensions between the EU and China are also escalating. At the end of last month, the EU decided to impose anti-subsidy tariffs ranging from 17% to 35.3% on Chinese electric vehicles for five years. Some experts believe the impact of these tariffs is just beginning to show, as the electric vehicle industry is crucial for European countries and must be protected as one of their few remaining advantageous sectors.
Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noted that there has been a surge of advance export orders before the fourth quarter, stating, "I believe this is mainly related to Trump; the threat is becoming increasingly real."
Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, mentioned in a report, "We expect China’s exports to remain strong in the coming months… As for the impact of Trump’s (tariff) measures, it is expected that the drag on China’s exports will only become evident in the latter half of next year."
Editor: Li Lin
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