Why Is the CCP Afraid of Trump's Victory? Hidden Tensions Behind a Bitter Congratulatory Message

On November 6, 2024, former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump delivered a speech during the election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Screenshot from Kaixin Tianxia video)

[People News] On November 6, at around 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time (3:30 p.m. Beijing time), Donald Trump declared victory in the U.S. presidential election, becoming the 47th President of the United States. At 78, Trump is now the oldest president to assume office in U.S. history and the first non-consecutive president in over a century.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has shown a clear distaste for Trump’s election (and there have been reports that they aren't fond of Kamala Harris either). They may have anticipated his victory, which is why accusations of CCP interference in the U.S. election—such as cyberattacks, "troll" accounts spreading disinformation on social media, voter impersonation, and efforts to sow discord between politicians and the public—have been prevalent.

On election day, November 5, CCP-controlled media continued to denigrate the process, portraying the U.S. election as "chaotic," "unfair," or the "most contentious, extravagant, and wasteful" election ever. State media described scenes reminiscent of high-security CCP events, with "boarded-up shops, locked doors of roadside houses," and "armed police patrolling streets" to deceive the domestic audience into believing that U.S. elections, lacking "democratic centralism" or "whole-process people’s democracy," were fraught with division and failure.

Why Does the CCP Fear Trump’s Return? Trump, during his previous term, intensified the Indo-Pacific security framework and imposed a trade war on China. During this campaign, he pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% if re-elected and threatened to bomb Beijing if China attacked Taiwan. He also proposed dismantling the China-Russia partnership and hinted at tariffs ranging from 150% to 200% on Chinese imports. Most concerningly for Beijing, Trump vowed in his victory speech in Florida to fulfill all of his promises once in office.

This prospect is infuriating for the CCP, but they are powerless to change it, leaving them filled with both fear and resentment.

After Trump’s victory, leaders from countries like Taiwan, India, France, Australia, and Israel promptly offered their congratulations. In contrast, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs grudgingly acknowledged Trump’s win only after an eight-hour delay, phrasing their statement as a response to reporters' questions and admitting they would "handle the matter in accordance with established practice." It wasn't until November 7 at 11:43 a.m. Beijing time that the CCP reluctantly announced that Xi Jinping had sent a congratulatory telegram. The 200-word official message was laden with hidden menace: "Cooperation benefits both sides, confrontation harms both," "A stable, healthy, and sustainable U.S.-China relationship aligns with international expectations," and "We hope both sides uphold mutual respect... expand mutually beneficial cooperation, manage differences effectively, and find the right way to coexist."

This was far from a joyful congratulatory note; it conveyed more complaint and demand. The message concluded with a subtle jab: "On the same day, Vice President Han Zheng sent a telegram to James Vance to congratulate him on being elected Vice President of the United States."

So, now that the congratulatory message has been sent, how will the CCP deal with Trump's future tariff hikes and pressures? If they hadn't sent it, how would they engage with him later? This dilemma illustrates their predicament.

Ordinarily, the CCP prepares congratulatory messages in advance for a presidential winner. On November 5, the Foreign Ministry’s website showed Xi sending timely congratulatory messages to Botswana’s new President Mokgweetsi Masisi and Fiji’s new President Ratu Wiliame Katonivere, as well as on October 26, a message to Mozambique’s newly elected President Filipe Nyusi. Why was Trump’s case an exception?

According to Ye Yaoyuan, professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas, Trump’s election will likely lead to increased tensions in U.S.-China relations, heighten the trade and tech wars, and exacerbate the Taiwan Strait crisis, intensifying global confrontations between the two nations. This will create significant pressure for the CCP.

Cheng Zhengbing, a professor of finance at Taiwan’s National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, stated that Trump’s team is populated with hawks, which complicates matters for Beijing. The trade war could escalate to involve more products, and Trump could pursue a technology war because the CCP has utilized high-tech advancements for military purposes.

Feng Chongyi, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney, noted that Trump's promise to "Make America Great Again" is aimed at revitalizing U.S. industries, countering the CCP's actions that have disrupted international trade norms and promoted unfair competition, leading to the hollowing out of U.S. industry and global dependence on China. Raising tariffs could adjust this trade imbalance and force American industrial capital back home, rejuvenating the American working and middle classes.

Feng added that Xi Jinping has already significantly damaged China’s economy. If the U.S. were to impose additional tariffs, it would further strain Chinese exports, leading to an escalation in U.S.-China confrontation. The tech war, a key part of the new cold war, would naturally include further restrictions on China’s technological capabilities.

Experts predict that on many international issues, the competition between the two countries will intensify, with both sides adopting stronger confrontational measures.

As the CCP responds reluctantly to Trump’s victory, it simultaneously exposes Beijing’s internal political struggles to the world. Trump is no longer a political novice; how will he use this rare opportunity to challenge the CCP again? That is what Beijing fears most.