During the March 2024 Two Sessions, Xi Jinping was photographed by foreign media in the Great Hall of the People with an expression of extreme pain while drinking tea.(Illustration by Qing Yu/People News)
People News – CCP’s Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, presided over a Politburo meeting on October 28. The meeting avoided discussing the economy and instead used a review of the 20th Central Committee’s third round of inspections to launch a high-profile anti-corruption campaign. The meeting did not mention when the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee would be held.
The meeting noted that the inspections showed that while the party-building work of central and state institutions and party-managed financial units has been strengthened, some problems remain. The meeting emphasized that "all levels of party committees must continuously improve their political standing," "firmly guard the security bottom line," and "carry out the anti-corruption struggle to the end with a spirit of thorough self-revolution," saying that a high-pressure stance on punishing corruption must be maintained.
The meeting referenced the term "Xi core" and extensively discussed anti-corruption, emphasizing "self-revolution." This focus on anti-corruption, rather than urgent topics like revitalizing the macroeconomy, boosting domestic demand, stabilizing real estate, and implementing fiscal stimulus packages, appears somewhat off-track.
In the second half of this year, each of the four Politburo meetings had focused on economic issues. The end-of-June meeting focused on advancing comprehensive reform and promoting Chinese-style modernization. The July meeting, held after the Third Plenary Session, summarized the economic situation of the first half of the year and planned the economic work for the second half. The August meeting focused on promoting development in Western China and emphasized comprehensive reform.
The September 26 Politburo meeting was pivotal, signaling a significant shift in economic policy, with clear directives to stabilize the real estate market, cut reserve requirements, lower interest rates, and strengthen counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies, as well as to stimulate the capital market and attract long-term investments. Following the September meeting, the central bank injected thousands of billions of yuan into the stock market, lifting the Shanghai Stock Exchange to over 3,300 points, with millions of investors encouraged to take loans and enter the market.
In October, the People’s Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance continued to introduce major economic stimulus measures. Early in the month, Finance Minister Lan Fuan stated that the central government would issue ultra-long-term special bonds to expand spending capacity, promise to ease local government debt burdens, support the struggling real estate market, and recapitalize state-owned banks. Analysts believe this is the CCP’s boldest economic stimulus measure since 2008.
At the National Day reception, Xi Jinping made a rare move by inviting former Premier Wen Jiabao and former Politburo Standing Committee member Li Ruihuan, who were seated on either side of him, sending an unusual signal. Analysts suggested that during the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, Xi faced joint opposition from political elders, second-generation Red Party "princelings," and anti-Xi forces, resulting in a loss of authority and military power. The Politburo Standing Committee has reportedly returned to collective leadership, with terms like "Xi core," "Xi Thought," and "CMC Chairman Responsibility System" appearing less frequently in party media. Consequently, there has been a sudden and intense reversal in economic policy, comparable to the abrupt end of the zero-COVID policy at the end of 2022.
It is anticipated that the 12th meeting of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee will take place in Beijing from November 4 to 8, where details of China’s fiscal stimulus policy are expected to be unveiled. This NPC Standing Committee meeting was initially scheduled for the end of October but was postponed, likely awaiting the outcome of the U.S. election on November 5. Analysts say if Trump is elected, he is expected to impose sweeping tariffs on China, with some suggesting that a 60% blanket tariff could reduce China’s GDP by 2% annually. The postponement of the NPC Standing Committee meeting may be intended to respond to a potential Trump presidency, allowing for economic stimulus measures to be approved during the session.
In other words, the late-October Politburo meeting should logically have focused on macroeconomic topics and fiscal and monetary policies, bolstering market confidence, releasing favorable policies, and mobilizing top-level support to achieve 5% GDP growth by the end of the year. At the very least, it should have discussed recent Politburo Standing Committee and State Council investigations in various regions, to provide guidance for upcoming economic policies and outline the agenda for the NPC Standing Committee meeting in early November.
However, unexpectedly, Xi bypassed economic topics and launched a high-profile anti-corruption campaign, heavily promoting self-revolution. This move signals an internal power struggle. Recently, reports of Xi's weakened power have been widespread. While Xi was attending the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia made two significant moves: presiding over an all-army training meeting in Zhangjiakou and visiting Vietnam, where he received high-level treatment.
Strangely, CCP state media delayed reporting Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam for more than a day. Rumors suggest that Zhang’s visit involved confidential discussions with Vietnamese leaders, potentially informing them of a “soft coup” in Zhongnanhai, where Xi’s power has been limited. While the authenticity of this information is unconfirmed, the Vietnamese leadership could gauge the shifts in CCP power structure without explicit notification.
Online rumors claim that the CCP is planning a Fourth Plenary Session, where Xi Jinping, Cai Qi, Wang Huning, and He Weidong—dubbed a new “Gang of Four”—will be ousted, with Xi and Cai being stripped of power. While a Fourth Plenary Session typically focuses on party-building and personnel appointments, it’s unlikely that Xi would be fully removed due to his “Xi Thought” being enshrined in the Party Constitution. However, Xi’s powers may gradually diminish until the end of his term, which aligns with the CCP’s logic of maintaining political stability.
The Politburo meeting did not mention a date for the Fourth Plenary Session, making it unlikely to be held within the year. Xi is unwilling to relinquish power easily, and his delay in convening the Fourth Plenary Session may lay the groundwork for future power struggles. △
(First published in People News)
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