Job Fairs Are Packed, But Few Are Finding Employment(Video Screenshot)
October 26, 2024 — The persistent economic downturn in China is casting an increasingly dark shadow over the job market. The youth unemployment wave has continued for four years, with authorities offering virtually no welfare support or solutions. With as many as 22 million unemployed Chinese youth, a potential time bomb is forming, potentially triggering a massive outburst of public discontent with the CCP.
Youth Unemployment Rate Remains High
In August of this year, the national urban youth unemployment rate (excluding students) for those aged 16 to 24 reached 18.8%, a record high for the year. In September, the youth unemployment rate was 17.6%, the second highest of the year.
Meanwhile, China's third-quarter GDP growth stood at 4.6%, marking a new low since 2023. Domestic demand remains weak; despite multiple policy measures introduced over the past year, there are few signs of recovery in the real estate market. New residential housing prices fell at the fastest pace since May 2015. The export sector, previously the only bright spot, saw a significant slowdown in growth in September.
The continuing economic slump has further darkened the outlook for the job market, with employment prospects for young people worsening since the pandemic in 2020.
According to a July report by Zhaopin, titled "2024 College Graduate Employment Power Research Report," only 48% of recent graduates received informal job offers. The proportion of graduates opting for "slow employment" and "freelance work" reached 19.1% and 13.7% this year, respectively.
Mr. Wu, a graduate of a prestigious university in southern China who now works for an IT company in Shanghai, told the Epoch Times that the youth unemployment rate is very high, and the National Bureau of Statistics has even adjusted its measurement criteria. "My junior classmates are finding jobs that are worse than in previous years. Both the 2023 and 2024 hiring seasons, including the ongoing autumn recruitment, have been grim. This year, my company has seen an increase in Tsinghua and Peking University graduates applying—something we rarely saw in previous years."
American economist David J. Wong told the Epoch Times that the high youth unemployment rate is primarily due to China's shift toward state-owned enterprises over the past decade, which has stifled private sector job growth. Additionally, the 2018 U.S.-China trade war and the zero-COVID policy caused many foreign orders and industries to move overseas, resulting in significant job losses.
"This relates to China's entire economic structure," Wong said, "which often prioritizes national goals over economic goals, such as through the Belt and Road Initiative, which heavily subsidizes foreign companies. This misallocation of social resources leads to rising unemployment."
Wong also attributes the situation to the CCP's emphasis on "new-quality productivity." China's traditional export strengths (textiles, furniture, and home appliances) have been deprioritized in favor of new industries, which create fewer jobs and lack a strong competitive advantage globally. This shift has resulted in increased fiscal subsidies and a redirection of funds away from supporting the "old three industries," leading to their decline and contributing to the rising unemployment rate.
22 Million Unemployed Youth in China; Authorities Remain Inactive
Since 1978, China has experienced five major employment crises, including the return of educated youth to cities in 1980, the economic slowdown in 1989, the state-owned enterprise layoffs in 1998, and the 2008–2009 financial crisis. However, the current period is regarded as the most challenging for youth employment.
A study from Peking University last year revealed that China has approximately 96 million urban residents aged 16 to 24, about half of whom are students. Of the remaining half, 33 million are working or seeking work, while 16 million (around 17%) are unaccounted for.
The study estimates that if those not in school, employment, or training are included, the youth unemployment rate in China could reach as high as 46.5%. In other words, around 22 million young people are unemployed.
Many of these individuals are "full-time children," staying at home and relying on their parents, preparing for postgraduate exams or civil service positions, working short-term or gig jobs, or engaging in freelance roles like delivery or ride-sharing.
Former mainland media figure Wei Zhen told Epoch Times, "Housing prices are depreciating, family wealth is rapidly evaporating, and sectors like delivery and ride-sharing are locked in price wars. I don’t think they can sustain the gig workforce indefinitely."
"Many people either haven’t realized the connection between this unemployment wave and the CCP, or if they have, they’re too afraid to say it. But it’s widely agreed that the economy is struggling," she added.
Liang, a longtime observer of Chinese political and economic affairs, told the Epoch Times, "It’s ironic. China’s employment doesn’t actually need the government’s intense efforts to create jobs. The CCP creates problems and then scratches its head trying to solve them."
"The Party’s leadership is the core of everything—until it becomes unsustainable. To achieve this goal, a second wave of authoritarianism is a possibility, where economic issues recede and political issues dominate society," Liang said.
So far, Beijing has presented almost no solutions. At the Chief Economists Forum in China this August, Li Zhan, Chief Economist of China Merchants Fund, suggested that the government could provide employment subsidies to alleviate pressure on college graduates.
However, the CCP considers this Western welfare model "a path to laziness" and rejects it. Currently, the government recommends jobs in elderly care, domestic work, and rural employment.
In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated 66.7 billion RMB ($9.3 billion) for employment subsidies, targeting "key groups" such as college graduates, migrant workers, and those with employment difficulties, with the focus primarily on corporate subsidies. The only support for college graduates is encouraging them to work in rural and remote areas, reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution’s "send-down" movement.
Unemployed youth have few opportunities to receive unemployment or social insurance benefits. Unemployment insurance requires a year of premium payments and proof of involuntary unemployment, making it difficult for the 297 million migrant workers and 200 million "gig workers" to qualify.
For those facing employment difficulties and graduates who have not found employment within two years of leaving school, the government introduced a flexible employment social insurance subsidy policy in 2017. However, recipients must first pay social insurance premiums to qualify for a small subsidy.
Despite the CCP’s annual rhetoric about implementing an "employment-first strategy," actions are limited. Each graduation season, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security launches the so-called "Employment Service Campaign," but the primary goal is to collect "real-name information on unemployed graduates," more for monitoring and maintaining social stability than providing genuine assistance.
These unemployed youth receive no official support and face criticism from authorities. CCP leader Xi Jinping has urged young people to "discard arrogance and impatience" and to "seek out hardship."
However, at the Beijing Summit of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum in early September, Xi Jinping pledged 360 billion RMB (about $50.7 billion) in funding to Africa over the next three years, aiming to create no fewer than one million jobs on the continent.
Economist David Wong noted that Beijing is not incapable of supporting unemployed youth, given that it pledged 360 billion RMB to Africa, a sum more than sufficient to cover social welfare for China's 1.4 billion people. However, it simply does not prioritize this.
"Beijing avoids adopting Western welfare systems because it believes in social Darwinism, where, as in the animal kingdom, survival is based on the fittest. If you’re unemployed, elderly, or ill, you’re just naturally weeded out," Wong said.
Former media professional Wei Zhen shared that the CCP has little motivation to address welfare issues. "Even during economic growth, the government’s main concern was extracting more money from the public. Even now, if tax revenues fall short, it resorts to non-tax revenue, using fines to increase income."
"China’s taxes are very high, but resources are not allocated toward vulnerable groups. China’s best free healthcare is primarily provided to government officials and executives of state-owned enterprises, groups that already have high incomes."
Discontented Youth Could Become a Social Powder Keg
As many of the CCP’s policies regress toward the planned economy era of Mao Zedong, the dividends from China’s past reform and opening-up have vanished, leaving many young people without hope.
Increasingly, young people feel that no matter how hard they study or work, they cannot attain a better quality of life. They are caught up daily in the struggle to find jobs, working endless overtime, and the relentless pressure to compete. Their income has declined, their standard of living has worsened, and their efforts yield no results.
Discussions on social media have popularized the concept of “lying flat,” which means abandoning the pursuit of working hard to save money while subjecting oneself to constant anxiety and poor health. Those who choose to “lie flat” are often disillusioned conformists. With all avenues for social mobility cut off, they believe the ruling elite monopolizes resources and recognize that state surveillance permeates every facet of life. In response, they consciously choose to live on the fringes of mainstream society, seeking personal freedom in the most helpless way.
Social stability is the CCP’s primary concern. In 2008, during the height of the global financial crisis, the CCP implemented a 4 trillion RMB stimulus plan, creating jobs for about 20 million migrant workers.
Now, however, over 20 million educated, disillusioned, and unemployed youth who refuse to comply with “the Party’s call” have become a potential source of social instability.
A report by the China Macroeconomic Forum at Renmin University offers a more pessimistic outlook. It concludes that the youth unemployment problem may not improve within the next decade, potentially creating a larger impact on the national leadership. “If mishandled, this issue could lead to other social and even political problems beyond just economic issues,” the report states.
Discontented youth have often been an unpredictable force in Chinese politics, as seen in events like the May Fourth Movement in 1919, the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, and the “White Paper Revolution” in 2022.
In early December 2022, after university students across the country staged street protests, the CCP abruptly abandoned its zero-COVID policy.
On November 27, 2022, following a deadly apartment fire in Xinjiang, protesters in Beijing held up blank sheets of paper in protest of the strict zero-COVID policy, an act that became known as the “White Paper Revolution.” (Image: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
Mr. Li, a 2018 graduate from a prestigious southern university, told the Epoch Times that the collapse of many empires throughout history has stemmed from financial crises, and unemployed youth may become a force driving the downfall of the CCP.
“Low-wage, unemployed youth can’t afford to pay for social or pension insurance, so many simply stop contributing. Youth unemployment and low wages also discourage young people from having children, worsening the aging population issue. The dual pressures of youth employment and elderly care will leave middle-aged people with no hope. This is a chain reaction that could shake the entire society.”
Li believes that even if young people aren’t yet consciously opposed to the CCP, the gaps in social security created by unemployment and low wages will continue to worsen, eventually leading to dissatisfaction with the ruling authorities.
In recent months, Li noted a marked rise in hostility within Chinese society, with incidents of retaliatory violence repeatedly occurring, including cases of entire families being killed. He cited the example of a female judge in Luohe, Henan, named Wang Jiajia, who handled traffic accident cases and was later murdered.
Li said that graduates from prestigious universities, in particular, will grow more disillusioned with the CCP if they cannot find work despite their degrees. Many of them have broader perspectives and access to tools to bypass censorship online.
“The youth unemployment issue could trigger a series of social problems, any one of which could ignite the powder keg, just like the ‘White Paper Movement.’”
Wei Zhen believes that it’s possible for unemployed youth to march in protests, and there is a noticeable rise in indiscriminate attacks, though the breaking point for public tolerance remains uncertain.
“I won’t make specific predictions, but I think social change spurred by unemployment is possible. In the past, people in China accepted economic growth and traded political rights for increased income. Now, it’s clear that incomes won’t rise and are actually decreasing.”
Editor: Lin Yan
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