October 23, 2024 – The 16th BRICS Summit, held in Kazan, Russia, began on October 22 and will continue for three days. A major focus of attention is the meeting between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Experts analyzing the trajectory of Sino-Russian relations point out several key aspects, suggesting that the repeated emphasis by both sides on their "iron-clad" relationship indicates underlying conflicts and uncertainties.

Xi and Putin Emphasize Their "Iron-Clad" Relationship—A Sign of Conflicts and Uncertainties

Just like Xi Jinping's previous visit to Russia, Putin did not personally greet Xi at the airport this time either. Instead, high-ranking Russian officials welcomed him. According to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, Xi was "warmly welcomed by senior Russian officials." Reports also stated that before Xi's plane landed, Russia sent fighter jets to escort it.

In contrast to Putin's enthusiastic embrace and laughter during meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, his demeanor with Xi was much more reserved. Putin and Xi exchanged smiles, shook hands, and posed for photos. Notably, during Putin's visit to China in May, Xi embraced him for several seconds before his departure.

On the evening of his arrival in Russia, Xi held his third meeting with Putin this year at the Kazan Kremlin.

According to TASS, the entire meeting between Xi and Putin lasted about an hour. During the public portion of the talks, Putin described the cooperation between Russia and China as a model for interstate relations, emphasizing the "equal, mutually beneficial, and absolutely non-opportunistic" nature of their relationship.

In his remarks, Xi Jinping referred to Putin as a "dear old friend" and stressed that the deep friendship between China and Russia would not change. Putin, however, appeared unmoved when Xi called him an "old friend."

Professor Cheng Chin-mo, an associate professor of diplomacy at Tamkang University in Taiwan, told Epoch Times that given the current global situation, Xi Jinping has no room to shift his support for Russia. However, the friendship between China and Russia is not genuine, despite their statements. Their cooperation mainly stems from a shared goal of challenging the U.S.-led international order, making it a temporary alliance.

"There are many contradictions between China and Russia. While Xi Jinping expresses support for Russia in the Ukraine war, he is also cautious about worsening relations with the West, especially as China faces severe economic downturns."

Professor Cheng added that although Russia is the chair of this BRICS summit, it appears that China is playing a more dominant role. China and Russia are also vying for leadership over the so-called Global South, which includes developing countries.

He pointed out that, specifically in the field of global finance, Russia, under Western sanctions, is eager to quickly establish a cross-border payment system. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has concerns. China hopes to build an international order led by Beijing, centered on the interests of the Global South, to counter the U.S. After its relationship with the U.S. has soured and its ties with the EU have also deteriorated, China wants to establish another arena where it can take the lead and challenge the current international order and values.

Professor Yao-Yuan Yeh, Chair of International Studies at the University of St. Thomas, told Epoch Times that the emphasis on the close relationship between China and Russia is because the U.S. is continuously looking for weaknesses in the Russia-Ukraine war. Xi and Putin want to stress that there are no cracks in their relationship. However, since China still wants to do business with the EU and possibly drive a wedge between the EU and the U.S., it cannot fully side with Russia. Thus, the China-Russia relationship remains full of uncertainties, and the statements from both Putin and Xi are largely superficial.

Analysis: Xi and Putin Secretly Plan to Disrupt the Global Order, Making It Harder for the U.S. to Manage

This BRICS Summit occurs against a backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the opening of a new battlefield in the Middle East, and the CCP escalating military drills around Taiwan, even involving live-fire exercises.

Yeh further explained that, in terms of the Russia-Ukraine war, China is primarily focused on how to provide Russia with more economic freedom through trade, enabling Russia to continue supporting its military industry. The second focus is the Middle East, where China and Russia aim to divert the U.S.'s attention from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Taiwan security. "In simple terms, their goal is to create as much chaos in the Middle East as possible with minimal resources, leaving the U.S. overwhelmed."

He added that the U.S. is willing to allocate significant resources to deter potential enemies in international affairs, whether through aid to Israel or Ukraine. If the situation becomes more chaotic, the resources the U.S. can use to contain China and counter the CCP will be stretched thin. Additionally, the worsening situation in the Middle East will affect the EU’s energy market.

Cheng Chin-mo noted that China’s role in Middle East conflicts is becoming increasingly evident. For example, in July, Beijing hosted a meeting with leaders from various Palestinian factions, including Hamas, and even signed the "Beijing Declaration." Although many of these leaders were later killed by Israeli forces, China's involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts is now undeniable.

Cheng added that the CCP is also confronting the U.S. and the West in the Indo-Pacific, though it has not yet initiated any formal military conflict. China's threats to Taiwan, support for terrorism, backing of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and support for Russia are all clear challenges to the existing international order. The CCP is using current geopolitical and ethnic-religious conflicts worldwide to stir up tensions, positioning itself as a leader of an "Axis of Evil." While the meeting between Xi and Putin might appear focused on Ukraine, they are also likely plotting strategies for the Middle East to further disrupt the world order.

BRICS De-dollarization Efforts Draw Attention; Experts Call It Unrealistic

Beyond security issues, BRICS cooperation on de-dollarization is also in the spotlight. Russia has previously proposed creating a payment and settlement system similar to SWIFT among BRICS countries and suggested using digital currencies for investments within the group.

Yao-Yuan Yeh: The likelihood of the renminbi replacing the U.S. dollar system is extremely low. "The value of the renminbi is doubted by many countries. Initially, Xi Jinping planned to incorporate developing countries into the renminbi market through the Belt and Road Initiative, but it failed. The idea of gaining advantages by cooperating with Russia’s ruble is also unrealistic, because the ruble is a heavily sanctioned currency, essentially usable only in Russia, as all Western countries are sanctioning Russia."

Cheng Chin-mo added that the BRICS countries have long hoped to establish a common currency, akin to the euro, for mutual circulation. China has even been promoting the concept of a "petroyuan" within BRICS to challenge the dominance of the petrodollar system. However, they are facing significant obstacles in reality. Beyond the widespread use of the U.S. dollar, China's economic downturn, the withdrawal of foreign capital, and threats to its banking system have drawn global attention, with many wondering when China will face a financial collapse. Additionally, other BRICS countries do not have the political stability necessary to push forward economic integration.

The BRICS countries, originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, have now expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

One topic of interest is whether Xi Jinping will meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kazan. Since the 2020 border conflict, relations between China and India have worsened. However, just before the summit, the two countries reached an agreement on patrol arrangements.

Cheng noted that beyond territorial disputes, the more significant issue is the rivalry between China and India for leadership of the Global South. India also seeks a more prominent role in the United Nations Security Council and is a crucial pillar of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy as a democratic nation. While India does not criticize Russia for the war in Ukraine, it maintains political and economic ties with Western nations and is reluctant to offer direct support to Russia.

"In the triangular relationship between Russia, India, and China, Russia’s ties with India are relatively closer than those with China. The strained Sino-Indian relationship poses significant challenges to BRICS’ future integration, whether in cross-border payment systems or discussions of a common currency. Geopolitical coordination will be extremely difficult."

Russia’s Support for China’s "Unification" Is Empty—Analysis: Russia Is Struggling with Its Own Problems

On October 22, Taiwan’s government made a rare disclosure of wartime food supply plans, aimed at preparing for a potential blockade by the CCP. Russia has repeatedly expressed support for Beijing’s "unification," though it claims force is unnecessary.

Yeh said Russia is struggling with its own problems and, despite its continuous support for China’s "One China" principle, this stance has little impact on the international community. Even if war broke out, Russia lacks the military capacity to assist China in combat, so its support is merely symbolic.

He believes that if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, China knows that if the U.S. intervenes, it would lead to a world war, and the CCP would inevitably collapse if it lost. From Taiwan and the U.S.’s perspective, the best way to prevent war is to be fully prepared, ensuring that the CCP doesn’t act recklessly.

Cheng stated that the CCP does not yet have the capability to challenge U.S. authority in the Indo-Pacific, but it will continue to conduct gray zone operations against Taiwan, which Taiwan cannot ignore. The best way for Taiwan to respond is by arming itself. However, he also pointed out that countries attending this BRICS summit, such as Russia and Iran, are facing domestic unrest, making them internally unstable, while China is also dealing with social conflicts. "Of course, when regimes face crises, there is always the possibility that dictators may take desperate actions. Therefore, Taiwan must heighten its defenses to counter the CCP's potential aggressive moves."

Edited by: Li Muen