Washington — Data released by China’s customs on Monday (October 14) reveals that Chinese exports to Russia in September surged by 15.7% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in nine months and surpassing the 10.1% growth seen in August.

However, China’s imports from Russia saw a 9.2% year-on-year decline, a sharp drop compared to the 1.1% decline in August. Reports suggest that this decrease is largely due to Russian exporters facing payment difficulties. Under the strain of U.S. sanctions, Chinese buyers are reluctant to engage in direct currency payments with Russia in order to avoid repercussions from Western sanctions.

In the first nine months of this year, trade between China and Russia grew by 2.7%, amounting to 1.28 trillion yuan ($180.3 billion).

In August, Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Moscow and met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, where they issued a joint statement. Both sides pledged to "continue fully deepening cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, energy, finance, science and technology, culture, and local partnerships," and promised to enhance the "stability of practical cooperation" to bring bilateral relations to new heights.

Chinese state media quoted Li as telling Mishustin, "Bilateral trade is maintaining growth momentum," and, "We are full of confidence and hope in further deepening all-around mutually beneficial cooperation between our two countries."

The Russia-Ukraine war has been a catalyst for the acceleration of China-Russia trade. In 2021, bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to $147 billion, which soared to $190.27 billion in 2022, an increase of approximately 30%. In 2023, trade further surged to $240.1 billion, a 26.3% increase. China and Russia had set a goal of doubling their trade by 2019, a target that was achieved ahead of schedule due to the war.

In stark contrast to the booming China-Russia trade, trade between Russia and the U.S. and Western nations has plummeted. According to EU statistics, trade between Russia and the European Union reached a record €258 billion in 2022, the highest in eight years. However, in the first 11 months of 2023, this figure fell by 66% year-on-year to €82.5 billion. Russia's share of EU imports and exports has now dwindled to less than 2%.

Similarly, U.S.-Russia trade has experienced a steep decline. In 2021, trade between the two countries was valued at $36 billion, dropping to $16.16 billion in 2022—a decrease of more than 55%. By 2023, U.S.-Russia trade had fallen to just $5.2 billion, an 86% drop, barely a fraction of pre-war levels.

Japan's trade with Russia has also fallen significantly, from $20.8 billion in 2021 to $8 billion in 2023, a decline of over 40%. South Korea’s trade with Russia dropped from $27.2 billion in 2021 to $15 billion in 2023, down by 45%.

According to data from Russia’s Federal Customs Service, Western countries are no longer among Russia’s major trading partners.

Last week, Reuters reported that Chinese automaker Chery (CHERY.UL) began assembling cars in three factories in Russia. These factories were previously owned by Volkswagen, Mercedes, and Hitachi (Japan), all of which exited the Russian market following the Russia-Ukraine war as part of sanctions against Russia. Chery has capitalized on this opportunity to fill the void and expand into the Russian market.

While China claims neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it has consistently sided with Russia in practice. On international platforms, China has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion, instead deflecting responsibility for the war onto the U.S. and NATO.

Increasing evidence suggests that China has provided substantial economic support to Russia through trade, including the supply of dual-use goods that bolster Russia’s military manufacturing capabilities. These items include drones, machinery used to produce weapons and ammunition, and raw materials and components for military purposes.