Two CCP Defence Ministers Sentenced; Is Zhang Youxia’s Promotion Next?

Pictured: File photo of Zhang Youxia (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News] On May 7, the two former defense ministers of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, were sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve, followed by life imprisonment without the possibility of commutation or parole. Analysts suggest that this latest purge by Xi Jinping is not solely focused on anti-corruption and intimidating political adversaries, but is also linked to setbacks in his core strategy of 'military unification with Taiwan.' Some observers believe this may be a precursor to the promotion of Zhang Youxia.

The Chinese military court announced on May 7 that Wei Fenghe was convicted of bribery, while Li Shangfu was found guilty of both bribery and corruption. Both received death sentences with a two-year reprieve, which will be commuted to life imprisonment after the two-year period, without the possibility of reduction or parole. Wei and Li, both former defence ministers and members of the Central Military Commission, received the heaviest penalties in military anti-corruption cases since Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012.

Li Shangfu, a member of the CCP's 'red second generation,' has held various positions, including commander of the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre, deputy minister of the Equipment Development Department, and minister of the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission. Following the 20th National Congress of the CCP in 2022, he became a member of the Central Military Commission and was appointed as State Councillor and Minister of National Defence in March 2023.

Wei Fenghe previously served as the commander of the Second Artillery Corps (the predecessor of the Rocket Force) and later as commander of the Rocket Force. After the 19th National Congress of the CCP in 2017, he became a member of the Central Military Commission, State Councillor, and Minister of National Defence.

Wei Fenghe was the first general promoted under Xi Jinping's leadership, with Xi personally conducting a promotion ceremony for him. Li Shangfu was also promoted to Minister of National Defence by Xi Jinping following the 20th National Congress of the CCP. Both hold positions at the vice-state level.

From 'Seizing Military Power' to 'Preventing a Coup': Xi's Logic of Purge Undergoes a Qualitative Change

Du Wen, the director of the legal advisory office of the former Inner Mongolia government, analysed this case in a media program, stating, 'From a legal perspective, this is a corruption case; from a political perspective, it is a loyalty case; and from a power perspective, it serves as a deterrent.'

In his view, the severe sentences do not indicate that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) military has 'succeeded in anti-corruption'; instead, they reveal a significant anxiety among the leadership regarding loyalty within the military.

Du Wen believes that what is truly alarming is the 'qualitative change' in military purges following the 20th National Congress of the CCP. 'The early purges were about seizing power, while the current purges stem from fear; initially, the focus was on establishing authority, but now that authority is turning against itself.'

He emphasised, 'Xi Jinping is not primarily concerned about military officers being corrupt; rather, he fears that they might cultivate their own followers through personal interests. The most taboo issue within the CCP military is the existence of an 'alternative core.'

From his perspective, the greatest fear among the CCP's top leadership has always been the risk of a coup. Therefore, Xi Jinping's so-called 'anti-corruption' is fundamentally a form of 'preventive purging': 'It is not about waiting for a coup to take action; it is about preemptively dismantling any independent networks that may form.'

Analysis: Heavy Sentencing of Two Generals Aimed at Zhang Youxia

Canadian independent commentator Wen Zhao remarked in a media program that Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu were sentenced 'on the same day, with the same standards, and the maximum penalty,' which has 'unprecedented deterrent power' in the political history of the CCP.

He stated, 'The sentences for both individuals are identical, each receiving a death sentence with a two-year reprieve, followed by life imprisonment without the possibility of commutation or parole. In simpler terms, this means 'life in prison,' with no chance of ever being released.'

It is noteworthy that Li Shangfu has been charged with 'bribery'. Wen Zhao highlighted that since Li succeeded Zhang Youxia as the Minister of Equipment Development, 'the logical chain is very clear'.

He stated, 'If Li Shangfu has a target for bribery, it would naturally be his predecessor, Zhang Youxia. The authorities are now emphasising 'bribery' in a high-profile manner, which serves as a pretext for the next step in promoting Zhang Youxia.'

'What Xi wants is not whether you believe it or not, but whether you are afraid or not.'

Senior media figure Guo Jun pointed out during the 'Elite Forum' program that there is another highly unusual aspect to this case: the position of the president of the military court responsible for the trial is currently vacant. She noted that the former president of the military court, Liu Shaoyun, was abruptly dismissed in February of this year, and no new president has been appointed since.

'What does this imply? It means that the military court is now almost in a state of vacuum.' She remarked, 'There is no one to provide checks and balances; everything is determined by Xi Jinping. He can decide what crimes to charge and the severity of the sentences.'

She believes that the true purpose of this case is not to 'reveal the truth to the public', but to instil political fear within the military. 'Xi Jinping aims to convey to the entire military: a vice-national level can receive a death sentence with a reprieve, and the president of the military court can be replaced at any moment; the next one could be you.'

'In previous cases, such as Bo Xilai's, the amounts, timelines, and targets were all clearly outlined. But this time, there is nothing.' She believes this indicates that the authorities are not concerned with 'convincing the military', but rather with instilling fear. 'What Xi Jinping desires is not whether you believe it or not, but whether you are afraid or not.'

However, Guo Jun also pointed out that there has not been a significant public display of support for the central decision within the military at this time. (Related video)

Analysis: Xi Jinping's True Anger Lies in the 'Exposed Foundations of Taiwan Invasion'

Wen Zhao argues that Xi Jinping's recent purge is not solely about anti-corruption; it is also linked to setbacks in his core strategy of 'militarily unifying Taiwan'.

He noted that Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu are closely associated with the Rocket Force and missile systems, which are central to Xi Jinping's 'regional denial strategy'. 'Xi Jinping has high hopes that the missile system will prevent U.S. military intervention in the Taiwan Strait. However, the Iranian battlefield has revealed many vulnerabilities.'

Wen analysed that in the recent military operations by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, a significant number of Iranian missiles were intercepted at a high rate, while Iran's missile technology has long been believed to have deep connections with the Chinese Communist Party.

'Iran's missiles and drones depend on Beidou for navigation, with many components and fuel sourced from China. Consequently, when the conflict erupted, over 99% of the missiles aimed at the U.S. military were intercepted, and more than 90% targeting Israel were also intercepted.'

Wen Zhao believes that this disparity has left Xi Jinping profoundly disappointed with the military-industrial complex and the Rocket Force. 'It was initially thought that they were at least close to the U.S. in missile technology, but comparisons reveal a significant gap. Trump's strike in Iran exposed many of the Chinese Communist Party's military secrets.'

The Myth of the 'Carrier Killer' is Under Scrutiny

Wen Zhao further emphasised that the Chinese Communist Party's long-promoted 'Dongfeng-21D', 'Dongfeng-26', 'Dongfeng-17', and other 'carrier killer' systems are fundamentally based on the logic of deterring the U.S. military through long-range missiles. The results of the Iran conflict have raised serious doubts about this strategy.

Iran launched hundreds of anti-ship missiles at the U.S. aircraft carrier, but none of them hit their target. Reports indicate that the USS Lincoln was on fire and smoking, a scenario that only exists in AI-generated images created by Chinese military enthusiasts.

Lin Zhao also noted that following Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022, the Chinese Communist Party fired 11 missiles in the vicinity of Taiwan, with five of them landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone.

"Previously, there were discussions about whether the missiles were intentionally aimed off-target. In hindsight, it appears they genuinely missed. Out of the 11 missiles, 5 missed, leading to a defect rate of 45%, which is quite concerning."

He further pointed out that since then, the Chinese Communist Party's military exercises around Taiwan have seen a "significant decrease in live-fire launches," with a shift towards more "simulated launches." "Because if they were to fire again, it could more easily reveal their true capabilities." △