Sudden Rumors of Xi’s Stroke — Are They Strange? Major Personnel Shock Expected at the Fourth Plenum

March 11, 2023: Senior members of the CCP’s Central Military Commission line up to take the oath at the National People’s Congress. From right to left: Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News] With the Fourth Plenum of the CCP approaching, rumours are running rampant again about whether Xi Jinping’s hold on power will change and about top-level personnel arrangements. Under enormous backlash across the economy, politics, diplomacy, and domestic society, new reports have again surfaced that Xi suffered a stroke and was rushed for emergency treatment. What clues are there in this? Given that a large number of members of the Central Committee are already collapsing, what major upheavals might the Fourth Plenum bring?

On October 9, Du Wen — former executive director of the Legal Advisory Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and a self-media commentator — said that an insider within the CCP suddenly reported to him: Xi Jinping suffered a sudden stroke in Beijing on October 9 and is currently undergoing emergency rescue. At the same time, Premier Li Qiang, who was visiting North Korea, was allegedly ordered to return to China immediately.

Oddly, on that same day — October 9 at 15:04 — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a brief notice saying a Global Women’s Summit would be held in Beijing on October 13–14 and that President Xi Jinping would attend the opening ceremony and deliver a keynote speech. The notice offered no details about the summit and felt abrupt.

At 16:35, the Foreign Ministry posted again, with spokesman Guo Jiakun providing some explanation about the Global Women’s Summit.

On the next day, October 10, the Party paper People’s Daily ran a long piece titled “Composing a New Chapter in Global Women’s Development — On the Occasion of the Upcoming Global Women’s Summit.”

Xi’s attendance and planned speech at the summit give the impression of a hasty decision by the CCP: first, a short notice, then successive attempts to add flesh to the story.

On the 10th, Xinhua reported that Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Kim Jong-un, Secretary General of the Workers’ Party of Korea, to mark the 80th anniversary of the founding of the WPK. Of course, sending a congratulatory message alone does not prove that Xi is fine.

However, Li Qiang did not make an emergency return from North Korea. On the 10th, KCNA reported that Kim Jong-un met Li Qiang and the two discussed “expanding strategic communication.”

On October 10, Du Wen posted again on X, saying Li Qiang attended the Workers’ Party of Korea’s 80th anniversary meeting, which suggests Xi’s condition has temporarily stabilised.

The CCP will hold the Fourth Plenum on October 20. Why would rumours of Xi having a stroke surface at such a sensitive moment?

There are three possibilities. One: the report is false — pure slander. Two: it’s possible — Xi really has serious health problems. Three: it might be a setup to pave the way for Xi to retire on health grounds at the Fourth Plenum.

But whether true or false, people reacted with cheers at the news that Xi had a stroke or fallen ill; some even joked, “No — we need someone who weighs 200 jin to bring down the Communist Party!” (200 jin ≈ 100 kg)

Whether Xi truly suffered a stroke can be observed at the Global Women’s Summit on October 14: whether he attends and speaks, and whether his appearance or demeanour shows any abnormalities.

Will the Fourth Plenum Bring Major Personnel Changes?

According to the official announcement, the agenda for the CCP’s upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is to “study and deliberate on recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development.” But this is merely a ceremonial pretext — the real focus lies in the power struggle behind the scenes. Given the intensifying infighting within the Party, this session is expected to have many absentees among Central Committee members. The key point is that those who have “fallen” are mostly officials personally promoted by Xi Jinping — a humiliation widely regarded as Xi’s great disgrace, effectively digging a pit for himself at this very plenum.

Independent commentator Du Zheng, writing recently in Up Media (《上報》), analysed that since the 20th Party Congress, at least 46 full or alternate Central Committee members personally promoted by Xi have “run into trouble.” This number exceeds the 43 who were purged during the so-called “anti-corruption campaign” following the 18th Party Congress — a period when those targeted were largely from the Jiang and Youth League factions. In contrast, during the 19th Central Committee, the CCP officially announced 12 members under investigation, with another 6 unnamed but “internally handled.”

What’s notable this time is that not only has the number of high-ranking officials implicated broken records, but, according to CCP propaganda, every one of them was personally vetted, even interviewed one-on-one, by Xi Jinping — his own “Xi’s Army.”

These include: Former Defence Minister Li Shangfu. Former Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao. Former Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Tang Renjian. Former Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Former Director of the CMC Political Work Department, Miao Hua, among others.

Du Zheng notes that with the 20th Central Committee’s five-year term only half over, 46 members have already fallen, though only 19 have been publicly announced by state media. Most were secretly purged, and ironically, those brought down were handpicked by Xi himself — a biting irony that highlights how Xi’s own faction is collapsing in a catastrophic chain reaction, directly undermining his authority.

Du writes: “By the time of the Fourth Plenum, this will make the entire Central Committee laugh — it’s Xi’s great humiliation.”

In August 2016, the CCP Central Office issued an “Opinion on Preventing the Promotion of Cadres with Existing Problems,” which stated that when “promoting cadres with existing problems causes serious negative effects,” and especially when such cases appear “frequently or in large numbers,” the main Party leader should be held accountable.

Xi never expected that the rule he created would one day trap him. If Xi’s power is challenged, this clause could become a weapon for rivals to pressure or even force his retirement.

So, what kind of major personnel reshuffle might occur? According to a report by the South China Morning Post on October 8, the Fourth Plenum will see the largest personnel adjustment since 2017. Multiple sources indicate that at least nine Central Committee members have already been confirmed for replacement.

Among those already removed: Qin Gang, former Foreign Minister, Li Shangfu, former Defence Minister, Li Yuchao, former Rocket Force Commander. All three were dismissed during last year’s Third Plenum. Qin Gang “resigned but was still referred to as ‘comrade,’” suggesting that while he remains under criminal investigation, he has not yet been expelled from the Party. Li Shangfu and Li Yuchao, however, were expelled from both the Party and the Central Committee for “serious disciplinary violations.”

Since then, several more have fallen. Former Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Tang Renjian was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve. Former CSRC Chairman Yi Huiman was detained for “serious violations of discipline and law.”

So far this year, seven ministerial-level officials have been investigated: Former Tibet Chairman Qi Zhala, Former Hubei Party Secretary Jiang Chaoliang, Former Shanxi Governor Jin Xiangjun, CPPCC Standing Committee member Bi Jingquan, Former Guangxi Chairman Lan Tianli, Former Ningxia Chairwoman Liu Hui, and Former Inner Mongolia Chairwoman Wang Lixia, who was taken down on August 22.

Beyond the local and financial sectors, the military remains a major target of Xi’s purge. Three senior generals may lose their Central Committee seats at the upcoming plenum: Former CMC Political Work Department Director Miao Hua, Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, and Former CMC Logistics Support Department Minister Zhang Lin — all reportedly set for formal dismissal.

In addition, former CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong, former International Liaison Department head Liu Jianchao, and Minister of Industry and Information Technology Party Secretary Jin Zhuanglong have all been absent from public view for an extended period, fueling speculation about their fate.

Every member of the Central Committee was either approved or personally appointed by Xi Jinping. In the military, appointments were recommended by Miao Hua, Xi’s personnel chief in the armed forces, and approved by Xi himself. Hence, when these officials fall, no one else can be blamed but Xi.

As former Maoming Party Secretary Luo Yingguo once said, “The CCP is a system where the corrupt promote the corrupt.” Du Zheng concludes: “The CCP calls itself the world’s largest party — in that case, Xi Jinping is the world’s number one corrupt official.”

(First published by People News)