March 11, 2023: Senior members of the CCP’s Central Military Commission line up to take the oath at the National People’s Congress. From right to left: Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
[People News] The senior leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) commenced their Beidaihe vacation office time on August 2. This year's Beidaihe Conference is particularly shrouded in mystery, and the subsequent two weeks have become a focal point of interest across various sectors. Independent commentator Du Zheng published an article on August 7 in Taiwan's 'Shang Bao', revealing insights about the Beidaihe Conference and the Fourth Plenary Session from sources in Beijing. Insiders have disclosed that Xi Jinping is negotiating with the opposition; if he is to resign as General Secretary, he insists on retaining his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
In his article, Du Zheng predicts that this year's Beidaihe Conference will involve internal discussions regarding the final decisions on Miao Hua, the Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, and the future of He Weidong, the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, who has been absent since the National People's Congress in March. He believes that the handling of these two individuals will spark disputes among various factions within the party, but these discussions will take place behind closed doors.
The announcement from the Politburo meeting on July 30 indicated that the main agenda for the Fourth Plenary Session is for the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee to report its work to the Central Committee and to consider recommendations for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development.
The so-called '15th Five-Year Plan' by the CPC refers to the planning period from 2026 to 2030. The CPC is set to hold the 21st National Congress in 2027 for leadership transitions. The timeframe of the '15th Five-Year Plan' overlaps with the 21st National Congress.
Du Zheng analysed that if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds its 21st National Congress, scheduled for 2027, the key questions will be whether Xi Jinping can continue as the top leader and what supporting plans are in place. These issues should be addressed in advance at the Beidaihe meeting. The various factions within the CCP will reveal their positions, and after reaching a consensus, they will merely go through the motions at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee.
By comparing past plenary sessions, Du Zheng concluded that this year's Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee can only be compared to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee in 1985, both of which focused on deliberating five-year plans.
He believes that the Fourth Plenary Session will likely address some secret topics, particularly the principles regarding the transition of members in the central leadership. This may include the recent rampant rumours about whether Xi Jinping will step down, when he might do so, whether it will be a single step or a gradual process, how the resignation will be executed, and how the successor will be arranged. Certain principles may need to be established. These matters should first reach a consensus at the Beidaihe meeting before being processed at the Fourth Plenary Session.
Du Zheng also observed that some people currently believe Xi Jinping's power is diminishing, while others think he will delegate authority. He believes both perspectives are valid. People are clearly noticing certain signs, with the distinction lying in whether Xi is acting passively or actively.
A friend close to a high-ranking official disclosed to Du Zheng that Xi Jinping, who is adept at power struggles, has a bargaining strategy with his political rivals: to step down from the General Secretary position as part of a deal, while still nominally serving as the actual top leader, much like Deng Xiaoping did in the past.
In 1985, at the 4th Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee, Hu Yaobang was a member of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee and General Secretary of the Central Committee. The third-ranking Standing Committee member, Deng Xiaoping, was Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and controlled the military — making him, in effect, the highest leader of China at the time.
However, friends in Beijing believe that Xi Jinping’s authority cannot compare with Deng Xiaoping’s. Even if Xi were to step down as General Secretary, and somehow keep the CMC chairmanship, that position would exist only in name for propaganda purposes. As part of the political bargain for a leadership transition, 75-year-old Zhang Youxia has also chosen to “voluntarily” retire, a kind of mutual “perish together” with Xi. But the military is still full of Zhang’s people; Xi’s trusted allies in the army have already been dismantled, leaving him with little room to manoeuvre in military affairs. Most importantly, this arrangement would not affect the survival of the Party itself, nor would it harm the interests of the CCP’s elite power bloc.
Earlier, an anti-Xi political elder in Beijing revealed that “there will be changes in Beijing in the autumn.” What exactly does this political code mean?
An informed source told Du Zheng that the large military parade in Beijing in September — even if Xi Jinping personally reviews the troops — would be only for show to foreign audiences, and would not signify a true assertion of military authority.
The source added that the October 4th Plenary Session would be critical, and that one should watch for potentially surprising developments in “new–old leadership transitions” and the “ability to promote or demote” top officials. This could also serve as an indicator of whether the 2027 top-level CCP leadership reshuffle will proceed smoothly. If Xi Jinping’s political career in China were to end suddenly, unexpectedly, and at an inopportune time, it would mark the beginning of an internal revolution.
The source also disclosed that after Xi steps down, the dictatorship of the Communist Party might last only for a short period. Xi’s successor would be a ruthless figure, placed there only to ignite the flames of revolutionary uprising.
Du Zheng concluded by noting that many people at present do not really believe China could change overnight. But looking at the precedent of the former Soviet Union — which collapsed in a single night — people should keep an open mind and quietly watch events unfold. △
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