Houses Can’t Even Be Rented Out! An Unstoppable Great Depression

The Quietest Chinese New Year in History! High-Speed Trains Nearly Empty. (Screenshot from video)

[People News] It’s understandable that high housing prices deter buyers, especially with the sluggish economy and weak real estate market. But now, even in top-tier cities, rental properties are sitting vacant—some landlords have slashed prices to as low as 1 yuan per square meter, yet still, no one is renting. Even at rock-bottom prices, there are no takers. The economy has truly frozen to the core.

According to data from the economic big data platform Wind, in 2024, rents in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have fallen back to 2015-2017 levels, Guangzhou has dropped to 2014 levels, Chengdu has returned to 2018 levels, and Tianjin has plunged all the way back to 2010.

Data from the China Index Academy indicates that from January to November 2024, the average residential rent in 50 key cities nationwide fell by 2.72%. Over the whole year, the total decline reached 3.25%, an acceleration of 2.95 percentage points compared to 2023. Second-tier cities saw the sharpest drop, with rents falling 3.56% on average, while first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities all recorded a 2.82% decline.

However, these figures might still be conservative—the reality is even harsher.

In Shenzhen’s Futian CBD, a three-bedroom apartment that rented for 16,000 yuan per month at the start of 2024 had dropped to 10,000 yuan per month by early 2025, a 38% decline. In Hangzhou’s Regent International Center, a major hub for livestream influencers, a one-bedroom unit that rented for 2,800 yuan in 2023 is now going for 2,300 yuan. In Shanghai’s Lingang New City, the rent per square meter dropped from 40.26 yuan per month in 2023 to 34.4 yuan in 2024, a 15% decline.

Beijing’s situation is even grimmer. In Fuli City, a two-bedroom apartment rented for 12,000 yuan in 2024, but by March 2025, the price had plummeted to 9,500 yuan, and yet, the number of potential renters visiting the property was down to just one-third of the previous year’s level. A 50-square-meter apartment within Beijing’s Third Ring Road, which was successfully rented for 7,200 yuan in 2021, was listed for 6,000 yuan in July 2024, but not a single person showed interest.

According to rental transaction data from 58 Anjuke, in January 2025, the daily number of rental transactions in Beijing fell significantly month-over-month, while the average listing duration increased by 8.8 days. The issue is not just pricing—there are simply no renters. Take Tiantongyuan, known as the "first stop for Beijing drifters" (北漂第一站). In 2024, a 100-square-meter fully furnished unit could still be rented for 5,000 yuan, but 2025 is expected to be even worse.

Social media users have reported that in December 2024, over 30% of old residential complexes in Beijing had gone three consecutive months without a single renter even viewing an apartment. Meanwhile, the number of rental listings in Beijing surged by 43% compared to 2023, yet the number of long-term migrant residents is shrinking rapidly, especially renters aged 25-35, who have decreased by 21%. In other words, rental listings have nearly doubled, while young renters have dropped by a fifth.

The rental market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is currently facing significant challenges. The situation in third and fourth-tier cities is even more severe.

Examining the office and shopping mall rental markets provides insight into the overall economic climate.

According to the latest statistics, by the end of 2024, the vacancy rates for office buildings in both Beijing and Shanghai have surpassed 20%. In Shenzhen, the vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings could exceed 45% by 2025.

The situation is even worse in second-tier cities. For instance, in Wuhan, the vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings reached 33% in 2023, while Changsha and Nanning reported vacancy rates of 37.1% and 39.1%, respectively. Even in Hangzhou, known as an emerging AI technology hub, the vacancy rate stands at 26%.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the rental market for Grade A office buildings in major cities nationwide continues to decline, with most landlords lowering rents repeatedly to maintain occupancy rates. In first-tier cities, the average rent for Grade A office buildings in Beijing has continued its downward trend, decreasing by 6.2% month-on-month. The overall rent in the Shanghai market fell by 3.9% month-on-month, while Guangzhou's average rent decreased by 2.7% in the fourth quarter. Shenzhen's average rent also saw a month-on-month decline of about 2.8%.

Similarly, rents for Grade A office buildings in second-tier cities are also experiencing a downward trend. In Nanjing, the average rent for Grade A office buildings in the fourth quarter of 2024 dropped by 2.2% month-on-month. In Qingdao, the average effective rent for Grade A office buildings decreased by 2.4% month-on-month to 100 yuan per square meter per month, with a daily rent of just 3.3 yuan per square meter.

The difficulty in renting out residential buildings highlights the surge in unemployment, as many people simply cannot afford to rent homes. Young individuals are choosing to 'lie flat,' while others are returning to their hometowns. A staggering 13 million people have gone back, resulting in an oversupply in the rental market. University graduates are facing immediate unemployment, with over half unable to secure jobs, leaving them without the means to rent. Furthermore, there are 200 million migrant workers who do not rent at all; they sleep on construction sites, under bridges, or in container homes, leading a nomadic lifestyle.

Another significant factor contributing to the weakness in the residential rental market is the Chinese Communist Party's so-called affordable housing initiative. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in 2024, a total of 1.72 million units of affordable housing, including allocated and rental properties, are set to be constructed nationwide. In May 2024, the People's Bank of China introduced a new 300 billion yuan relending program for affordable housing, while local governments issued special bonds to fund the acquisition of existing commercial properties. The Communist Party initially believed this would stimulate the housing market, but it backfired, failing to revive the sales market and further harming the rental market. This situation is akin to killing three birds with one stone: the affordable housing project is left unfinished, the 300 billion yuan investment is wasted, and the rental market is in turmoil.

The decline in the office and retail leasing market is a direct reflection of the broader economic downturn. For instance, in the restaurant and supermarket sectors, 3 million restaurants closed in 2024. The closure rate exceeds 50%, mirroring the demographic trends in China, where the death rate surpasses the birth rate, and the rate of restaurant closures outpaces openings. Statistics indicate that the average lifespan of a restaurant in China is 500 days, but in 2024, it may drop to just 360 days.

In mainland China, there exists an industry dedicated to 'collecting the corpses' of closed restaurants. A 'restaurant undertaker' from Beijing shared in an interview with Deutsche Welle that in 2024, his team dismantled 200 restaurants each month, marking a staggering 270% increase from the previous year. However, the company's revenue in 2024 fell by over 20% due to a rise in the number of small-scale shops closing, such as beverage stores and bakeries. Nationwide, around 47,000 coffee shops shut down each year.

The situation for physical stores is dire. According to incomplete statistics from Yilan Business, at least 6,882 stores announced closures in the first half of 2024, affecting over 100 enterprises. This includes major chains like Walmart, Yonghui Supermarket, RT-Mart, and Hema, as well as leading restaurant brands such as Luckin Coffee and Mixue Ice City.

In the supermarket sector alone, nearly 500 stores have closed. Fudi Supermarket shut down all its locations due to operational difficulties, impacting over 100 stores. Yonghui Supermarket closed 38 locations, while China Resources closed 21 stores, including China Resources Vanguard, Suguo, and BLT.

The department store sector has seen 13 closures, primarily involving long-established brands that have been in operation for over a decade, such as Shanghai 600, founded in 1952, which has a history of 72 years.

The education and training as well as fitness industries have also experienced significant closures, with several well-known institutions going out of business. Brands like Gymboree, BabyCare, Kamo Yoga, and 5KM have collectively closed over 150 stores, with financial implications exceeding ten million yuan.

The unstoppable economic depression is rapidly spreading. Beyond the high unemployment rates, factory closures, and the collapse of the real estate market, another significant factor that cannot be overlooked, and which may be a key contributor to the market downturn, is the substantial decline in China's population. Recently, numerous videos have emerged online depicting abandoned villages and the hollowing out of urban-rural areas. The aging population and declining birth rates are contributing to negative population growth, while the official narrative still leaves the death toll from the pandemic in recent years shrouded in mystery. However, given the ongoing expansion of funeral homes and the booming funeral industry across the country, it is not surprising that the number of deaths in China attributed to the pandemic could reach hundreds of millions. △

(First published by People News)