CCP Issues Emergency Response Plan Amid Speculation of Rulers Seeking Self-Preservation

On February 17, several entrepreneurs attended a CCP symposium on private enterprises. However, their expressions were grim, showing no joy despite supposedly receiving government support. (Screenshot from video)

[People News] On Tuesday (February 25), the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the State Council issued the "National Emergency Response Plan" nationwide, claiming it to be a comprehensive institutional framework for handling emergencies. However, the release of this document has sparked skepticism from the public, with many social media users suggesting that it is a self-preservation strategy for the ruling authorities amid escalating social tensions and widespread public discontent.

According to Radio Free Asia (RFA), last year saw multiple high-profile violent incidents across China that garnered significant attention. Many observers believe the timing of the Emergency Response Plan (hereafter referred to as the "Plan") is no coincidence. Democracy activist Lin Shengliang, who is currently in the Netherlands, told reporters that the document reflects the CCP leadership's crisis mentality. "The CCP is a party with a strong sense of crisis. The fact that they are issuing this document at this moment only proves that they lack confidence in their control over the current situation," he said.

Background of the Issuance

According to information released by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government website, the purpose of formulating the "National Emergency Response Plan for Major Public Emergencies" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") is to "effectively prevent and resolve major security risks, respond to sudden incidents, protect the safety of people's lives and property, and maintain national security and social stability."

Ge Ping, a long-time researcher of the CCP's stability maintenance system, told reporters that the issuance of this Plan may be linked to a series of events, including the Urumqi fire at the end of 2022, the Sitong Bridge incident, and the White Paper Movement. "The Ministry of Emergency Management conducted a review of the 'White Paper Movement,' which likely took place about six months after the movement," he explained. For safety reasons, Ge Ping chose to use a pseudonym during the interview.

He explained that during the review, the Ministry of Emergency Management concluded that sudden incidents like the White Paper Movement are unpredictable and unsolvable, and local governments lack adequate response plans. "Once such incidents extend from schools to society, there are no plans in place," he noted. Ge Ping had personally observed the site of the White Paper Movement in a certain location, stating, "At the scene, someone shouted 'Xi Jinping step down,' and the police did not take any action because they had no plan." It is important to note that during the White Paper Movement in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, local police actively intervened, suppressing and arresting participants.

The "Plan" defines sudden incidents as natural disasters, accidents, public health events, and social security incidents that occur unexpectedly, cause or may cause serious social harm, and require emergency response measures.

Ge Ping highlighted that it is particularly significant that 'social security incidents' have been incorporated into the new guidelines. The 'Plan' clarifies that social security incidents primarily encompass criminal cases, terrorism, mass incidents, and ethnic and religious events, as well as financial, foreign-related, and other sudden occurrences that could impact market and social stability. Ge Ping stressed that following this detailed enumeration, specific plans will soon be developed.

He provided the example of the 2022 Sitong Bridge protests led by Peng Lifafa (Peng Zaizhou), noting that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government should have already prepared corresponding plans. In late July of last year, a local youth in Xinhua County, Loudi, Hunan, named Fang Yirong, displayed a banner with democratic slogans in the street, after which he was reported missing. This method of handling the situation appears to have been modeled after the Sitong Bridge incident.

Is this a sign of progress?

Du Wen, who previously served as the deputy director of the Legal Research Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and has been actively involved in local emergency management plan development, also believes that the most significant difference in this 'Plan' compared to previous regulations is the inclusion of 'social security incidents.'

The 'Plan' released this time is not the first document issued by the CCP government in this area. As early as 2005, the State Council of the CCP issued the 'Decision on Implementing the National Overall Emergency Plan for Sudden Public Events' (hereinafter referred to as the 'Decision'), which was repealed concurrently with the issuance of this document.

Du Wen explained that the "Decision" issued in 2005 was developed in response to the SARS outbreak in 2003, primarily to address natural disasters and public health emergencies. The Ministry of Emergency Management was established in 2018, which included functions for responding to emergencies such as natural disasters, public health crises, and safety incidents like coal mine accidents. Social emergencies had long been managed by stability maintenance offices under the Political and Legal Affairs Commission at various levels, which were gradually phased out; however, the responsibility for handling social emergencies still lies with the Political and Legal Affairs Commission.

Du Wen noted that the inclusion of "social security incidents" in this "Plan" represents a systemic advancement, stating, "In the past, when the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission dealt with social emergencies, it was very opaque, operating entirely as a black box, lacking professionalism and characterized by arbitrary actions and brutal suppression."

He further elaborated that this approach in the "Plan" is rooted in the CCP's governance structure, saying, "There remains a faction within the CCP that is relatively traditional and bureaucratic; they prefer to clarify certain institutional aspects of the state, such as ensuring orderly responses to emergencies. There has always been a group dedicated to this work. The State Council's Legislative Affairs Office and the Ministry of Justice are involved in these efforts, and I am well aware of it."

The "Plan" indicates that in responding to various emergencies, the role of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission is no longer mentioned in the command structure from the central to the local level. At the central level, the Ministry of Public Security is responsible for coordinating the response to major social security emergencies, while at the local level, various emergencies are managed by emergency command organizations led by party committees and governments at all levels.

Unpredictable

However, Du Wen (杜文) remains cautious about this situation, expressing concerns that these regulations may not be effectively implemented in practice. 'When a real incident occurs, we still rely on the central investigation team. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, all emergency response mechanisms proved ineffective. What truly took action was the arrival of the central supervisory team. These matters are entirely outside the legal framework, which is quite alarming. They say one thing and do another; currently, it remains largely talk without action.'

Ge Ping (葛平) believes that the existing system needs to be tested in real-world scenarios, as numerous issues persist in practical operations. For example, local officials are hesitant to take responsibility, and when problems arise, no one is willing to step forward. This issue has become particularly pronounced in recent years. Another significant problem is the concealment of information. 'There is a lack of transparency in reporting between different levels of government, especially since the media's oversight role has diminished,' he noted. The issuance of this comprehensive emergency response plan for sudden incidents from the central government implicitly suggests a lack of trust in local governments, effectively compelling them to report incidents.

The 'Plan' includes specific clauses addressing 'monitoring and early warning' and emphasizes the need to standardize and enhance the reporting of information regarding national emergencies. However, Ge Ping pointed out that sudden incidents are often black swan events that are difficult to predict. The effectiveness of the current plan requires simulation and drills; without an actual incident, it is challenging to assess the effectiveness of these plans.