Liu Zhenli Likely to Succeed Dong Jun: Another Sign of Xi's Waning Power

Chinese paramilitary police stand guard at Tiananmen Square. (China Photos/Getty Images)

People News - According to reports from the Chinese military's official publication, on January 8, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met with Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC, in Putrajaya. Liu Zhenli was the first high-ranking Chinese government and military official to visit Malaysia in 2024.

Anwar stated during the meeting that he had met Xi Jinping multiple times and noted that bilateral relations between Malaysia and China were developing strongly. He expressed hope for deeper exchanges between the two nations' defense departments and militaries to elevate defense and security cooperation to new heights. Liu Zhenli responded by emphasizing China's willingness to deepen friendly exchanges and pragmatic cooperation between the two militaries.

Interestingly, Anwar’s Facebook post about the meeting omitted any mention of his past meetings with Xi but provided more details about their discussions. These included issues related to bilateral interests, strategic cooperation, and Malaysia’s upcoming role as ASEAN’s rotating chair. He noted that Malaysia would host the first ASEAN-China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit.

On the South China Sea issue, Anwar emphasized that all disputes must be resolved through diplomatic and international legal channels. However, this detail was conspicuously absent from the Chinese military's report.

China has become increasingly aggressive on South China Sea issues in recent years, leading to disputes with multiple countries. For example, Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed multiple times last year, and Vietnam accused China in October of attacking its fishermen in disputed waters. Beijing has also sent patrol vessels to challenge Indonesia and Malaysia's exclusive economic zones. ASEAN nations have criticized China's actions, with some rejecting Beijing's proposals and disputing its "nine-dash line" claims.

Given Malaysia’s historically close ties with China, Anwar’s explicit stance on peaceful resolution reflects his hope that Beijing will exercise restraint. Liu Zhenli’s visit to gauge Malaysia's attitude seems to have fulfilled this purpose. However, this task would traditionally fall under the responsibilities of Defense Minister Dong Jun.

According to reports from the Chinese military's official publication, during his visit, Liu Zhenli held separate meetings with Malaysia's Defense Minister Mohamad Hasan and Armed Forces Chief General Mohammad Ab Rahman. They exchanged views on international and regional issues as well as the relationship between the two militaries. On his Instagram account, Mohamad Hasan mentioned that their discussions included strengthening Malaysia-China cooperation, military exercises, international forums, and the defense industry. Local Malaysian media, reporting on Liu Zhenli's courtesy visit to the Armed Forces Chief, described it as an effort to "further strengthen diplomatic relations and defense cooperation" between the two countries.

In recent years, China-Malaysia military and defense cooperation has deepened significantly. Malaysia has repeatedly purchased Chinese military equipment, and the two countries' militaries have increased their exchanges through joint exercises, high-level visits, and education and training programs. Additionally, Malaysian military officials have consistently participated in the Xiangshan Forum, an international defense dialogue organized by China's Academy of Military Science. At the forum, Malaysian representatives have repeatedly emphasized the importance of deepening cooperation on weapons systems, military development, joint counterterrorism efforts, and the impact of China's military growth on security in Southeast Asia.

Traditionally, discussions on defense issues with other countries fall under the purview of the Defense Minister. However, Liu Zhenli's meetings with high-ranking Malaysian military officials suggest that he is being positioned as a de facto Defense Minister. Could this mean that Dong Jun will become yet another short-lived Defense Minister, with Liu Zhenli as his successor?

In November of last year, reports surfaced that Dong Jun was under investigation due to his promotion by the disgraced former Director of the PLA General Political Department, Miao Hua. Subsequently, Dong Jun made a brief public appearance, with rumors suggesting that he had provided information on Miao Hua but had not been taken into custody. However, even if he avoided arrest, Dong Jun's career effectively came to an end. Therefore, it is not unlikely that Liu Zhenli could replace Dong Jun, especially since there are very few uninvestigated generals left.

Liu Zhenli previously served as commander of the 65th Group Army and the 38th Group Army, both of which were commanded by Xu Linping, who was trusted and promoted by Hu Jintao. During Zhou Yongkang's attempted coup in 2012, Liu Zhenli took control of the Armed Police Force. As such, it is possible that Liu Zhenli is also someone Hu Jintao trusted. Not long ago, the 81st Group Army, responsible for protecting Beijing and a successor to the 65th Group Army, notably refrained from mentioning "Chairman Xi" during the Central Military Commission Political Work Conference.

Additionally, some reports suggest that Liu Zhenli has close ties to Zhang Youxia, the current first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. The two are said to have fought together during the Vietnam War. If Zhang Youxia, supported by CCP elders, is currently in control of military power, Liu Zhenli replacing Dong Jun would not be surprising. Liu Zhenli's ascent further underscores signs of Xi Jinping losing control over the military.

(First published by People News)